tsptalk's Market Talk

[Boghie]

GLD: Makes me wonder what happened to all those prophecies of mass inflation by 2012.

HUI looking at possible double bottom.

I'm usually too early in my buys, but my holding period is long. 100-150 is next buy level.

Bullitt, the FED has been fighting DEFLATION, not inflation.

They would love to fight inflation. Deflation is a very difficult beast. I give credit the Helicopter Ben. Just wish the Treasury had kept its powder dry rather than snorting the blow in 2009 and 2010.

 

[Bullitt]

DEFLATION, not inflation.

Lets reminisce. Check the comment section.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/bullitt/306-case-hard-assets.html

A dedicated thread
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/economy/8344-deflation-watch.html

 

[Boghie]

Lets reminisce. Check the comment section.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/bullitt/306-case-hard-assets.html

A dedicated thread
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/economy/8344-deflation-watch.html

You know Bullitt, those threads contain very good commentary. I think I will revive the Deflation thread with a comment to pump it. Imagine the FED inflating as they have been and still only producing 1% or 2% inflation. I can only guess at the depths of deflation we would be living through right now without the FED pushing inflation.

We are still deflating, but the market does not accept it. Expect labor prices to continue their downward march (see us, ahem:blink. And, since this time the real problem will be gubmint debt (the housing bubble will be seen as a minor blip by historians) we can expect a big hit if the problem is not managed well. Since your blog entry and the deflation thread were active in 2010, and we have obviously not managed things well, I am not real confident.

 

[Boghie]

Something to think about....

In the *Deficit thread I tracked via the Monthly Treasury Statement that Corporate Income Tax revenue is +21%.

C Fund: +17.89%
S Fund: +19.15%

Is that just a coincidence? Might be time to lighten up on the risk a bit, eh...

 

[tsptalk]

Peter Schiff with his normal doom and gloom, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

"Washington is engaged in a massive "campaign" to make Americans believe the economy is in recovery. But in reality the United States is at the brink of a devastating economic crash that will cause catastrophic market losses and impoverish millions.

"That's according to Peter Schiff, the best-selling author and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, who delivered his frightening warning to investors in a recent interview on CCTV.

"The problem with politicians is they don't want to level with the voters and tell them how bad the economy really is and what the cure for the disease is," Schiff said.

"The "disease" Schiff refers to is a toxic combination of our massive $16.4 trillion debt and the Fed's continued devaluing of the dollar through its controversial 7-year long "easing" program."



More: Money Morning

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Peter Schiff with his normal doom and gloom, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

"Washington is engaged in a massive "campaign" to make Americans believe the economy is in recovery. But in reality the United States is at the brink of a devastating economic crash that will cause catastrophic market losses and impoverish millions.

"That's according to Peter Schiff, the best-selling author and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, who delivered his frightening warning to investors in a recent interview on CCTV.

"The problem with politicians is they don't want to level with the voters and tell them how bad the economy really is and what the cure for the disease is," Schiff said.

"The "disease" Schiff refers to is a toxic combination of our massive $16.4 trillion debt and the Fed's continued devaluing of the dollar through its controversial 7-year long "easing" program."



More: Money Morning

I've been out of the market, fearing a crash. It's coming. The trick is not getting caught in the market when the crash comes. That first step is a doozie.

 

[tsptalk]

That's the tough part. If a crash happens off recent highs, it will be difficult to avoid buying a dip and getting caught in it. But if the market deteriorates technically first, before a crash, then we have a better chance of being on the sidelines if / when it happens.

 

[clester]

I've been out of the market, fearing a crash. It's coming. The trick is not getting caught in the market when the crash comes. That first step is a doozie.

True, but being out of the market when in a bull market is the same as being in when it goes down. You lose money. Maybe not your principle but your missing the increase.

The key, I think, is to be ready on a daily basis to sell when the price gets to your sell stop and not try to ride out the "storm".

 

[tsptalk]

I agree with "the key". I'm not sure I agree that not making money is the same as losing money, but I guess it depends how you look at it.

 

[Birchtree]

My ears are sensitive so I don't go anywhere near Peter Schiff. So I won't know about any supposed crash until I drown in it. To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months as a discounting mechanism - that's where fundamentals concentrate. Valuation is the key here for it provides the backdrop for the bull market to continue in the longer term. Ralph Acampora thinks Dow of 20,000 by 2017 - that's good enough for me.

 

[clester]

I agree with "the key". I'm not sure I agree that not making money is the same as losing money, but I guess it depends how you look at it.

I figured I'd get some push back on that. that's not quite how I wanted to say it but but I hope my point got across.

 

[tsptalk]

My ears are sensitive so I don't go anywhere near Peter Schiff. So I won't know about any supposed crash until I drown in it. To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months as a discounting mechanism - that's where fundamentals concentrate. Valuation is the key here for it provides the backdrop for the bull market to continue in the longer term. Ralph Acampora thinks Dow of 20,000 by 2017 - that's good enough for me.

I haven't heard from Ralph Acampora since he was a raging bull in 2000.

 

[Bullitt]

Reminds me of Richard Bove and his calls in the banking sector in 2008.

From the archives.
Trade Of A Lifetime?

 

[tsptalk]

Another blast off this morning... But I know how this plays out. Thursday (late Wed.) we post the weekly sentiment survey and the Dow will be down 20 points [Thursday] and everyone will be bearish again.

19 positive Tuesdays in a row, but Thursdays have been just weak enough to throw the bears some chum.

 

[clester]

Another blast off this morning... But I know how this plays out. Thursday (late Wed.) we post the weekly sentiment survey and the Dow will be down 20 points [Thursday] and everyone will be bearish again.

19 positive Tuesdays in a row, but Thursdays have been just weak enough to throw the bears some chum.

We are getting very overbought so I would expect a down day or two anytime now. I think sentiment will get more positive though as folks give up on the the "pullback" theory.

 

[tsptalk]

You would think. But if today is a big reversal down day (too early to say but shaping up that way) and tomorrow is negative, I'll bet we see a bull to bear ratio under 1 to 1 again. If not (no reversal) my guess is it'll be in the 1.5 to 1 area, which is neutral.

 

[tsptalk]

So much for getting a sentiment survey sell signal tomorrow.

 

[tsptalk]

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a "sell" signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

 

[Cactus]

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a buy signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

What! It's currently 42% to 48% Bulls/Bears. Isn't that a buy signal in a Bull market?

 

[coolhand]

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a buy signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

I think you meant "sell" signal.