tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Yeah, Oscar has been whipsawed badly this year.

As far as being a buyer here goes, I talked about it in today's commentary. The risk / reward is good. We've just moved back above the 50EMA, and if we fall back below it, you take the small loss and get out.

When the S&P crosses back above the 50EMA, it tends to stay above it for a while longer. I'm thinking we have 2 or 3 weeks of upside left. It could be a double top situation.

The blue arrows below show similar spots - Small consolidation after crossing above the 50EMA. Also, the S&P is just breaking above the October highs. That's a pretty good 4 month consolidation. The problem is if we are just making a right shoulder of an H&S here (with October's high being the left). But 3 closes below the 50EMA, and I'm out again.

 

[Birchtree]

The best policy in a bull market is to close your eyes and just do it - buy.

 

[Guest2]

The best policy in a bull market is to close your eyes and just do it - buy.

"Buy, the market's taking a dive and you'll never see prices this low again"
"Buy, because this is a Bull Market on the rise and the train is leaving"

GEE, Is it ever OK to SELL ? Up or Down, Birchtree is a Perma-Buyer with Brass, ummmmmm, knuckles ! :nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

With the S&P back above the 50-day EMA (3 closes) I'm back in buy the dips mode. I had entered an IFT for today's COB, but cancelled it. I think I will wait one more day. I was remembering Oscar's rule to buy a 2 day pull back in a bull market. Today would just be day 1 if it holds in negative territory.

OK, here's the move back to the 50-day EMA. The S&P should have a pretty good bid here in the high 1090's. Jumping in. Also buying some SSO here.

 

[coolhand]

OK, here's the move back to the 50-day EMA. The S&P should have a pretty good bid here in the high 1090's. Jumping in. Also buying some SSO here.

I agree, I tend to think this weakness should be bought. And I'm outta ammo.

 

[tsptalk]

I agree, I tend to think this weakness should be bought. And I'm outta ammo.

Damn transfer limits! I wish I didn't have any left in Feb. The only reason I do is because I missed the rally the last couple of weeks.

I think James was going to go through the numbers after we get the December costs, and do some kind of cost report. He's suggesting costs will have risen since the limits were put in place. That will be great info to post in our blogs.

 

[Minnow]

Damn transfer limits! I wish I didn't have any left in Feb. The only reason I do is because I missed the rally the last couple of weeks.

I think James was going to go through the numbers after we get the December costs, and do some kind of cost report. He's suggesting costs will have risen since the limits were put in place. That will be great info to post in our blogs.

Careful there Tom, one day someone might start a thread railing against the 2 IFT limits... :laugh:

Don't worry, you get to make two more moves in March... I remember once a very smart guy suggested giving us 24 moves throughout the year instead of 2 per month...

To stay on topic here... looking at the 20 and 50 sma's, things don't look great for this week... but I have been proven wrong more than once.

 

[Frixxxx]

To stay on topic here... looking at the 20 and 50 sma's, things don't look great for this week... but I have been proven wrong more than once.

That's why you are still a minnow:cheesy:! Become the inner shark you know you are meant to be!

I've been very contrarian since Jan, and I'm not stopping just yet!

 

[JTH]

Still in Vegas, so haven't been watching the markets till now. First impression is a failed attempt at 61.8 Fib, now going to test the 38.2 Fib at 1085ish. Anyone agree?

View attachment 8490

 

[fedgolfer]

... great info, Tom and everyone else! The Fib #'s from the 1044 low pivot to yesterday's high pivot of 1112 suggests the 38.2 fib retracement lies at 1086'ish. Obviously that's splitting hairs since this can happen easily between today's IFT and tomorrow's IFT deadline... today or tomorrow?!

 

[fedgolfer]

... too funny JTH, thinking the exact same thing and was typing mine same time as you... yes, I agree, but it could happen today or tomorrow AM.

 

[JTH]

Hourly S&P 500 looking 4 support with the potenial 50/200 EMA Golden Cross. If this holds, that gets me bullish, if not, well than I was right all along. :cheesy:

View attachment 8491

 

[coolhand]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that we're gonna chop around at the current level till later in the afternoon, and then the dip buyers are gonna show up. We could be green by the close.

 

[JTH]

First test of the 15 min 200 EMA since 16 Jan where we gapped up 2+ points. gap gets filled at 1076.75 any takers?

View attachment 8492

 

[tsptalk]

I would like to see that 1076 gap get filled today if possible, with a snap back rally to about 1095 by the close or early tomorrow. Probably too much to ask for.

These Consumer Confidence reports are like sentiment surveys in that they are good contrarian indicators at extreme readings. Today's was very much below estimates and a good scare for investors.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm going to illustrate this in Friday's commentary, but if the comparison to the 2007 market (as bullitt mentioned several posts up, and I noted in the 2/23 commentary), then today's sell off (maybe into tomorrow) should be close to the low for this push down, before starting a new leg higher.

If the S&P continues down next week, the comparison is all but dead.

......................

 

[merlin]

Looking forward to the commentary. Looks good. Here to hope and a prayer .

 

[fedgolfer]

Nice side-by-side comparison, Tom. If this were Facebook, I'd click "LIKE".

 

[WorkFE]

If this were guaranteed i'd click "interfund transfer"

 

[Lobo]

Well....since I bought in 50% in the last few days....I certainly hope you are right!

Lobo