tsptalk's Market Talk

[poolman]

Google is down over $20 on the initial release of earnings (which sound good). yikes!

I said this yesterday. I think it was in my thread not sure.

We are getting better than expected earnings in the last two day's and the stocks are selling after hours.

Citi just came out with a beat and after hours is trading lower.

Sentiment is changing fast.

 

[amoeba]

I said this yesterday. I think it was in my thread not sure.

We are getting better than expected earnings in the last two day's and the stocks are selling after hours.

Citi just came out with a beat and after hours is trading lower.

Sentiment is changing fast.

selling after hours indeed - down ~4.6% as we speak (4:30 pm PDT; 1/21/10); GOOG's P:E is still way too high; it could be down 20% and still be overvalued.

So, anyone out there have a notion to go in on (or before) the consumer confidence/michigan sentiment numbers next week? Not me. I see a minimum of 7% off the peak (1080 on the S&P); twice that before the end of the month (i.e., S&P ~990-1010) wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[coolhand]

Tom, your thought about Friday's potentially caustic unemployment picture is the same as mine. The information has been posted everywhere by now. I'm thinking they tank the market today to set-up a rally tomorrow to bag the bears. If I wasn't following the SS and had more flexiblity in my trading, I might make a play for it.

Of course, if sentiment doesn't have enough bearish support tomorrow it could also be look out below, but I doubt it.

 

[Bullitt]

Tom, your thought about Friday's potentially caustic unemployment picture is the same as mine.

You have to wonder. By time we get information it's stale and already been acted upon so maybe this little tidbit of information is what insiders used to dump the market 8% from it's January high. We'll never know since the media always puts a rosy spin on why the markets did this or that yesterday or today.

Market Outlook:
ST, roll the dice
IT, trade a bear market rally or two
LT, the March rally is over

Risk/Reward isn't worth it and this correction could very easily turn into a 15% move downwards that we aren't able to recover from.

 

[tsptalk]

Of course, if sentiment doesn't have enough bearish support tomorrow it could also be look out below, but I doubt it.

Did you see the new AAII sentiment results?

29% bulls, 43% bears for a 0.67 to 1 ratio.

That's the lowest since the Oct low, and the July low.

 

[coolhand]

You have to wonder. By time we get information it's stale and already been acted upon so maybe this little tidbit of information is what insiders used to dump the market 8% from it's January high. We'll never know since the media always puts a rosy spin on why the markets did this or that yesterday or today.

Market Outlook:
ST, roll the dice
IT, trade a bear market rally or two
LT, the March rally is over

Risk/Reward isn't worth it and this correction could very easily turn into a 15% move downwards that we aren't able to recover from.

You are correct and until I can get a read on sentiment tomorrow morning (along with how the options guys are positioned) I wouldn't think about making a move.

 

[coolhand]

Did you see the new AAII sentiment results?

29% bulls, 43% bears for a 0.67 to 1 ratio.

That's the lowest since the Oct low, and the July low.

We've got a good decline going this morning, which should get things beared up some more as the bearish case is looking more attractive ST.

 

[tsptalk]

We've got a good decline going this morning, which should get things beared up some more as the bearish case is looking more attractive ST.

Bearish, or bullish?

 

[coolhand]

Bearish, or bullish?

Bullish. :cheesy:

 

[coolhand]

Bearish, or bullish?

While bullish, the Options players are not positioned for a big rally. Today, Trader's Talk had twice as many longs as shorts so the market may be trying to make a statement that could carry over into tomorrow the way things are going this morning. It's downright ugly. But that's when the contrarian side of me wants to take a shot. But at the moment, the SS is not about to give a buy signal any time soon, and that needs to be taken into consideration too.

 

[Bullitt]

Just got the email from AAII on their sentiment reading after you posted it Tom. Today should make for another ST bounce like we had a few days ago.

 

[nnuut]

Bearish, or bullish?

Skittish! Like a horse that hears a Rattlesnake! Probably a good day to go all in, but not me!
Let me see the NUMBERS!:blink:

 

[tsptalk]

I posted this the other day calling it "the games" we could encounter. The market never makes it easy to make a call.

Is today our big negative day to get investors leaning the wrong way again?

 

[Birchtree]

With a stronger dollar you can count on a stronger economy and a stronger market - we will undoubtedly rocket right back up as fast as we came down going through 1200 this time around. Now is the time to be contrary to the consensus view - buy against the VIX.

 

[coolhand]

With a stronger dollar you can count on a stronger economy and a stronger market - we will undoubtedly rocket right back up as fast as we came down going through 1200 this time around. Now is the time to be contrary to the consensus view - buy against the VIX.

That's probably what you said in 2008 too.

 

[Silverbird]

Strong dollar is only a strong indicator IF it's not due to other economies buying dollars in order to keep their exported goods cheap. The hangover from the last buying stint is inevitable.

 

[Steadygain]

Strong dollar is only a strong indicator IF it's not due to other economies buying dollars in order to keep their exported goods cheap. The hangover from the last buying stint is inevitable.

You're something else :toung:

 

[JTH]

TRAN has put in a lower low than the 1 FEB breakdown.


View attachment 8187

 

[Birchtree]

Now that's what I call a buying opportunity - I'm ready to get back into some more CSX. All I need is for the market to give me back my buying power from yesterday. It's all about protecting the base at this time.

 

[tsptalk]

TRAN has put in a lower low than the 1 FEB breakdown.

It's now just 37-points above the 200-day EMA.