tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

I thought I heard that it was the large caps that were overvalued by 30%? They were saying that small caps do better coming out of a recession. I may have heard both sides of the argument today. I guess everyone is just promoting what they are invested in.

 

[James48843]

I guess everyone is just promoting what they are invested in.

+1 Roger that.

I am sitting here wondering if perhaps I need to be thinking in terms of narrow stop loss point.

I normally would have bailed out today- but we're in Santa Rally mode- what do you all think about a 2% stop loss point from here? I may want to just hang in there- and I haven't seen any losses bigger than about 1.5% in any of these retraces lately. Is a 2% stop loss from here too small a margin, do you think?

 

[tsptalk]

Is a 2% stop loss from here too small a margin, do you think?

My thought is that the bias is positive next week, but because volume is going to be very light, if a sell-off begins, it could be severe. More volume = more stability. Less volume and the market can get pushed around more easily - up or down.

So as I said above, if the selling kicks in, it could be a run for the exits. So, with our delay, a 2% stop loss could be run over.

Like bullitt suggested, perhaps just taking some off the table would be best. I hate to be out of the market on Monday, but I don't want to give up my hard earned December gains.

 

[Birchtree]

I can understand why you don't want to get out - but do it for me. Save those gains. I can just barely see your taillights. I do wish you showed more clarity on your positions - but that's your business.

 

[Birchtree]

"I feel as though the market is about to change direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks."

http://safehaven.com/article-15344.htm

 

[tsptalk]

You are quite competitive there B. Talking us into selling to try to move up the AutoTracker?

 

[mayday]

You are quite competitive there B. Talking us into selling to try to move up the AutoTracker?

Sly Dog that MR. B

 

[Boghie]

I can understand why you don't want to get out - but do it for me. Save those gains. I can just barely see your taillights. I do wish you showed more clarity on your positions - but that's your business.

The Ent is moving.

But, us little creatures can still be quicker.

 

[Boghie]

Anyway,

I have no idea where the market shall go. Thus, I will hold to a 'moderate' allocation.

Hopefully, the market will allow me to reduce my trade count. October 2008 through April 2009 were very spooky. Flitted here, shifted there. When one is living through 8% dumps a day one's allocation strategy can change. Not all of us have the staying power of BirchTree – King of the Ents.

I, personally, think we are plateauing for quite some time. No big moves. But, I am not selling the farm and heading to the Lilly Pad. And, conversely, I don’t think I can figure out a swing trade.

Kinda boring, but there is nothing exciting out there.

A boring market outlook.

Nice.

 

[Birchtree]

Just wait until you hear the siren song of 'get me in at any price'. We could conceivably see another year like 2000 all over again - now that would be something. The money is straining on the sidelines earning no returns. They will come because the bull is in charge.

 

[Bullitt]

My outlook for 2010 is watch out for March because that's when Bernanke and co. plan on tightening the spigot by ending the QE, which has been propping up the mortgage market and instilling confidence in the banking ponzi playpen labeled CMBS. With an election year on our hand I plan on some other form of stimulus being initiated, which in the end will only prime the inflation pump. Thus, me thinks we top out in Summer 2010. I'll guess July 23rd we see the top. How fitting, right on a Friday. I also see Gold making a new high in 2010, (but nothing higher than 1300) as inflation shows clear-cut signs in the market. Whether this top I'm calling for is the top or just an IT top with a 20-30% drop to follow, I don't know.

The yield curve is offering us clues for now that things are looking better, but perhaps it's just those bond vigilantes telling the fed to get a grip.

 

[tsptalk]

I jumped on board today for a short-term trade, thinking I was buying a second down day in a bull market. It may turn out OK, but I was another victim of the dreaded early deadline.

 

[JTH]

I jumped on board today for a short-term trade, thinking I was buying a second down day in a bull market. It may turn out OK, but I was another victim of the dreaded early deadline.

Could always be worse, I'd much rather buy into rising prices verses declining. At least buyers are stepping in, and did you see Tuesdays AGG volume spike possibly marking a top? If it's true, it should bode well for stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Perhaps. It is amazing how many people are bearish on bonds, but baaaaa, I am part of that herd. The 30-year bond chart looks bad.

 

[tsptalk]

Today's S&P 500 low is 1114+ and the 50-day EMA is at 1113. If the S&P is going to find some support, right about here would be a good place. Seeing a move and a close, below 1113 by more than a few points would be a bad sign.

 

[poolman]

Today's S&P 500 low is 1114+ and the 50-day EMA is at 1113. If the S&P is going to find some support, right about here would be a good place. Seeing a move and a close, below 1113 by more than a few points would be a bad sign.

Good Point Tom.

Looks like 1133 will be resistance after today

and 1113 is next on the chopping block.

 

[coolhand]

Good Point Tom.

Looks like 1133 will be resistance after today

and 1113 is next on the chopping block.

Or it can be another hook for the bulls if we close above it today.

This is just such a great set-up for a bull trap all the way out to Monday. But then, who really knows when the bounce comes?

 

[poolman]

Or it can be another hook for the bulls if we close above it today.

This is just such a great set-up for a bull trap all the way out to Monday. But then, who really knows when the bounce comes?

True Coolhand

Anythings possible but I'm not feeling it.

 

[tsptalk]

Today's action could be knee-jerk to Obama's plans for the banks, or it could be a change that will have fundamental implications that could kill this bull market. I think we will know in the coming days.

 

[tsptalk]

Google is down over $20 on the initial release of earnings (which sound good). yikes!