tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

This doesn't have to rhyme exactly of course, but the closer the better as it depicts a drawing, if you will, of investors' reactions and emotions during a similar situation.

That said, if you notice below that at point "F" in 2007, the market closed well off the lows, and above the 20 and 50-day EMAs. So, I think it is important that this afternoon's rebound holds and we don't close back near the lows (there's about 50 minutes to go and the S&P is down about 4 points after being down over 1%). This keeps the rhyme going and the future reaction more predictable.

......................

 

[KevinD]

Nice.

 

[Bullitt]

Another similarity between 2007 and now is that volume was well below the 50 DMA.

 

[Bullitt]

Another similarity between 2007 and what's happening right now is that volume is well below the 50 DMA in both instances.

 

[JTH]

While I agree there are a substantial amount of similarities, IMHO this comparison supports a sub-666 outlook going into 2011.


Here is the 3 day chart where I've circled the two time frames. Check out the twin resemblance in the 39, 3 Stochastic, +DI & -DI crossover, and 20/50 EMA. However there is a huge difference in the ADX & the 200 EMA. Also, volume is much weaker now than before. This does not paint a rosy long-term picture.

 

[Birchtree]

"The reality we are living today far surpasses even the most optimistic forecasts of a year ago."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/financial-conditions-another-v-shaped.html

 

[tsptalk]

While I agree there are a substantial amount of similarities, IMHO this comparison supports a sub-666 outlook going into 2011.


Here is the 3 day chart where I've circled the two time frames. Check out the twin resemblance in the 39, 3 Stochastic, +DI & -DI crossover, and 20/50 EMA. However there is a huge difference in the ADX & the 200 EMA. Also, volume is much weaker now than before. This does not paint a rosy long-term picture.

Absolutely. In the market commentary that I posted that info initially, I closed it this way...

"Remember, I am talking about trades here, and not investments. Everything I mentioned about 2006 to 2008 preceded the terrible bear market of 2008 where many indices lost 50% or more of their value. That could very well happen again for all we know, so right I am trading what I see. Everything can change in a blink of an eye if the technical picture changes."

 

[JTH]

Absolutely. In the market commentary that I posted that info initially, I closed it this way...

"Remember, I am talking about trades here, and not investments. Everything I mentioned about 2006 to 2008 preceded the terrible bear market of 2008 where many indices lost 50% or more of their value. That could very well happen again for all we know, so right I am trading what I see. Everything can change in a blink of an eye if the technical picture changes."

Thanks Tom, sorry, I normally read your blog nightly, but I was out of town and just got back home. Great catch on the charts!!!

 

[tsptalk]

No, you are right. I should have said that in my post today as well.

 

[Bullitt]

Traders standpoint.... Reverse H&S pattern begins to move higher some time late next week after one more bounce lower. Target price 1200 which was the original reverse H&S pattern target and also would be the mini reverse H&S target.

Investor standpoint.... Risk to reward for new buys is not safe, regardless of AAPL shares soon becoming 'cheaper'.

 

[merlin]

Absolutely. In the market commentary that I posted that info initially, I closed it this way...

"Remember, I am talking about trades here, and not investments. Everything I mentioned about 2006 to 2008 preceded the terrible bear market of 2008 where many indices lost 50% or more of their value. That could very well happen again for all we know, so right I am trading what I see. Everything can change in a blink of an eye if the technical picture changes."

You are absolutely right look at the action today.

 

[JTH]

Following the Transports, NASDAQ & small caps, the S&P 500 has a 20/50 EMA Golden Cross.

View attachment 8540

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks! That is good news. So why am I getting so nevous? Wall of worry?

 

[fedgolfer]

Sentiment Survey is kicking a$$.

 

[tsptalk]

Exactly. This week's survey will be interesting. How bullish will it get - if at all?

I guess it depends on what happens on Wed. and Thu.

 

[Birchtree]

We all know that America's love affair with stocks has turned to hate - and that's just the way I like it. The fewer the bull has to pull along the better - the small investor will get their turn several thousand points up from here. That's the classic strategy.

 

[fedgolfer]

deleted... opened my mouth before seeing how the survey actually worked!

 

[JTH]

SPX Inverted Head & Shoulder takes us to 1177. Still looking for the breakout in volume.

View attachment 8545

 

[Frixxxx]

SPX Inverted Head & Shoulder takes us to 1177. Still looking for the breakout in volume.

You and me both, no volume-no support at 1120.

 

[Guest2]

You and me both, no volume-no support at 1120.

My Belly Button tells me we're in for a double-dip ! It was alittle Fuzzy on the details ! :nuts: