tsptalk's Market Talk

[JTH]

Transports Bull flag?

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[tsptalk]

Maybe intraday, but I'm not seeing it on the daily yet - the daily is still hanging on to the uptrend, and that intraday flag may keep it there. But I don't like that flat top.

 

[JTH]

Hourly: That neckline on the S&P 500 looks to be holding up rather well as a trendline. I don't recall a time when waiting on the jobs report was reflected in flat price as much as it seems to be now.

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[JTH]

Hourly: Here's a closer look at that neckline supporting price.

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[tsptalk]

Yeah, it's hanging tough. But no volume. But that's actually what you like to see when a bull flag is forming. But again, that's an intraday chart so the expected result could also be an intraday short-term move.

As they say, never short a dull market.

 

[SkyPilot]

I am thinking that there is still a lot of upside left in this market, as we were so far down. As we continue to cycle out of the recession, I think the market will do better than the economy for a while. When the economy reaches recovery, then inflation will begin, and that will add in the turbulants that will foretell the next big dip.

Or, maybe we are already on the precipice of another cliff? Have been riding the S fund for a long time, and think I will continue...

 

[JTH]

Yeah, it's hanging tough. But no volume. But that's actually what you like to see when a bull flag is forming. But again, that's an intraday chart so the expected result could also be an intraday short-term move.

As they say, never short a dull market.

Well this isn't exactly the pump & dump I've come to expect prior to a jobs report, where's the pump? Have you looked at On Balance Volume lately? Last time it was this high, it marked the 1150 top.

 

[fedgolfer]

Hourly: That neckline on the S&P 500 looks to be holding up rather well as a trendline. I don't recall a time when waiting on the jobs report was reflected in flat price as much as it seems to be now.

holding up extraordinarly well considering where the $ has gone today. On the 10 day chart w/ 30 min candles for the financials, the triple top could be kissing the channel goodbye. And tran needs to hold here on the 1 month perfectly symetrical bull channel. But, even if it drops 1 or 2% i think it well get bought back up in a jiffy.

 

[JTH]

I won't be surprised if we get a late day push in either direction. This should tell us what the job report expectations really are.

 

[JTH]

Monthly: Can the VIX go down further? You betcha.

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[fedgolfer]

that VIX chart Tom posted from SentimentTrader on S&P performance following declining VIX on 13 of 15 days is some primo-data.

If we get a 2% pullback the odds are saying buy.

After reading that, I'm content jumping back in after 1% pullback... even chasing it doesn't look that painful with a -3.5% max on 1 week out from 1/4/88.

All those periods were in economic building phases pre-rate hikes too, i think. That is one massive bull case.

 

[JTH]

Both the inverted Head & Shoulders and the Bull flag have the same 1157 price objective when you use the median price (regression line) over the head.

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[tsptalk]

Rallies or sell offs after a surprise in the jobs report tend to reverse rather quickly - usually within one or two days. Lately these type of reactions have been coming as soon as intraday. I'm hoping that would set up a buying opportunity early next week.

But I am actually also getting nervous about Greece. A bailout is not a given anymore and this could really spook our market. March could turn out to be a very interesting month after all is said and done.

So, while the S&P is above 50-day EMA, buy the dips. If our markets do get spooked by Greece, that could change. Hopefully we'll get a head start to get out rather than a crash..

 

[JTH]

Choo Choo, all aboard the TRAN express...

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[Frixxxx]

I'm on it......keeping me in the market!!!!!

 

[tsptalk]

Choo Choo, all aboard the TRAN express...

Double top test coming. The Naz and small caps had no problems with it, so I don't know why the trannies would, but it's there.

 

[Frixxxx]

Double top test coming. The Naz and small caps had no problems with it, so I don't know why the trannies would, but it's there.

:laugh: Really? trannies:nuts:!! Can't stop :laugh:!!!!

OK, Got my good laugh for the day!

 

[Birchtree]

Tom bulkowski said we would hit a target of 4250 by 3/15 - so we're early. The primary trend of the stock market according to Dow Theory would be confirmed as bullish if the DJIA and DJTA can close above their January highs at 10,725 and 4262.

 

[fedgolfer]

I love the trannies, the TNA and even the POT.

... where are the Peter Schiff followers saying gold to $5,000 and $10,000?

The real gold can be found in Graham's Intelligent Investor... the golden nuggets in there on market emotions is amazing. Plus the thoughts on reactions to negative news. Same thing, different spin. I think Buffett recently saying he exited his currency trades says a lot about where American companies can go with an increasing dollar. Plus, his all-in bets against the naysayers.

 

[JTH]

Here is the S&P 500 verses the VIX comparison chart showing us it's already reached its double top. Based on this chart, this is about the time where we should be looking for the next pullback.

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