tsptalk's Market Talk

Breakout...

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Breakout...

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Fibonacci levels from the previous 1150.45-1044.50 wave takes us to the following projections.

23.6% 1175.45
38.2% 1190.92
50% 1203.45
61.8% 1215.92

(1220-1250 seems to be the agreed upon peak of the next major wave)
 
Some CNBC comentary: Volume is low but this isn't a problem because volitility is low. When volitility is low program buying doesn't kick in as much because price targets aren't met. Hence low volitility brings with it low volume.
 
For the slow class members among us:
http://web.streetauthority.com/terms/t/tweezerscandles.asp
"In my mind, the tweezers pattern is analogous to a very short-term double top or double bottom. What the tweezers candles say is that prices held twice at the exact same level. At the bottom, sellers were not able to push the stock lower. At the top, the bulls were not able to drive prices higher. Tweezers thus signify very short-term support and resistance levels."
 
So here we have the CNBC/Bloomberg junkies attempting to change the tone of these markets, but the truth is folks want a long overdue pullback.

Healthcare is on the front burner again and if it passes folks seems to believe the markets will throw a temper tantrum. Just wait till they realize they are going to pay for this is part with billions from our social security. I can't wait for them to tell me if I smoke & drink they will drop me from the "economical" plan and put me on the "I'm gonna tax you out the azz plan."

The dollar refuses to break, and with inflation in check folks seem to believe the dollar is a better play than gold. IMHO it's a ruse. International banks are buying more and holding more gold than ever before. Not only that, but they aren't selling the gold they do have. Sound too me like they are waiting on the ripe EOTWAWKI (End of the world as we know it) opportunity.

The Euro can't get it up because of the focus (doesn't this ever get old?) on Greece. I say who cares about Greece, I'm more worried about Spain and Italy who can't seem to retrace more than 38.2% from the last down leg.

The VIX is way oversold here.

The NVI smart money indicators are a bit mixed across the indexes, but they are definitely slipping out the back door on small caps. But hey, the momentum indicators are overbought and prices eventually need to test the key moving averages.
 
As Tom mentioned in one of his nightly blogs, this is a great chart to keep an eye on. If you look at the rise from the March bottom, you will see it is possible to stay at high levels for an extended period of time. However, excluding 2007-2010 this is not the norm.

SPXA50: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average.

SPXA150: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 150 day moving average.

SPXA200: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average.

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The VIX is up big today, but seems to have found resistance at the 20-day EMA near 18. If it breaks and closes above 18, this pullback could be for real. If not, just another hiccup for stocks.
 
Double top or breakout?


I'm voting for an "against the crowd's thinking" breakdown, our leader has taken the stairs up and will now take the escalator down. Others will follow, we need a good test of the overbought moving averages. You may have noticed the news monkeys are bringing up the "Greece" word again. The Greece ETF still looks to be in the dumper, this ain't over yet...
 
The VIX at 16.27 is getting ready to go negative - show me the 15 level and a rally - I'm ready to spend some mo money.
 
The VIX at 16.27 is getting ready to go negative - show me the 15 level and a rally - I'm ready to spend some mo money.


The downside on the $VIX is slowing down, the lower lows are getting less low. Perhaps we've put in the last low for the year. and when that trendless 9.27 ADX crosses over the 16.48 +DI it won't be for the better.
 
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