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None of the majors are breaking their downtrends today no matter how many bulls it's fooling. Financials are still stuck below the 200 DMA, not good.

How much of this up day today (I have a hard time calling it a rally) has to do with short covering because a few overseas markets are closed on Friday and US is closed on Monday? How about the positive seasonality- that's playing a role today as well.

Bottom line: Markets rally 3% in bear markets. Sell in May worked this year.
 
we could be headed into a bear market but there are some solid technicals pointing to some future direction that have me stoked. One big one is the tranny price is now in the bull cloud, once in the cloud there is an 90% chance price will express itself on the top of that cloud in the near future. VIX ichimokus are about to go through the thin-line cloud. A bear could form but the technicals are pointing to some short term bullish surprise. Once a bigger red cloud starts forming in the front, meaning July (and it has on the tranny), we can see the bear as a much higher probability than the bull, but as of now, that cloud is still small, and if price goes north of the current cloud that future cloud gets smaller. If we fall on the south side of the current cloud, then, a bear is much more probable (which happened in July of '08, but still bounced up, before fulfilling the bear signal in the fall). FWIW, these are high probability plays even though it sounds like reading tea leaves.

But i'm not leaving the bear arguement out either in the short-term... there's a falling wedge that is pretty well defined and we're close to hitting the top line resistance. If I had lots of IFTs, i would be getting out 100% when we hit it. But, it'll only leave me w/ one buy in June if I do. But trying to save future IFTs hit me with -10% in May... yuck :) Lack of discipline.
 
"With Jupiter and Uranus about to start a three passage conjunction with one another through early next year, it has been my thought that this will coincide with excessive speculation and hence 'bubbles' in financial assets." That means hot summer fun.

http://mmacycles.com
 
Crappolla,

As negative as I am long term I could not enact another '<1%' IFT today because I did one yesterday. Nothing fractional to play with:p

We can make a little money on the 'Obama Economic Miracle' with a little swing dancing amongst the waves.

I think we can define the 'Obama Economic Miracle' as being a market range of S&P500 -44% through -27% from the recent evil Bush market highs. That gives swingers enough room to whoop-di-do their partners:nuts:
 
Well best of luck to both of you, but I don't see anything bullish about the transports being 500 points from the top after putting in a series of lower lows/lower highs. Looks like Nasdaq either filled that gap I or has a little bit more gas left.

Volume is flat or down today, clear signs of a short covering rally.

Ichimoku: Sometimes the correct answers are one that are the simplest to explain. After reading countless books, I believe that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.
 
Bullitt,

I love how we are now elated and relieved that a totalitarian backwater fascist state isn't going to dump European debt – or our own. A totalitarian backwater fascist state that does NOT have a transparent economy and whose finances are largely handled by wise socialist planners.

What could possibly go wrong?

This is a sad place to be.

Very sad

:worried:
 
I get a kick out of the importance the CNBC folks (I know, I still tune in) put on the 10,000 Dow level. "The critical 10,000 level", as they say. What? We've gone above and below it so many times in the last 10 years that it appears to have no meaning at all. It's no different than 10,281 or 9,876.

That said, I know how tough it is to talk about the market every day, never mind every minute of the day, and actually have something to say. The fact is we usually don't know exactly why the market went up or down, except that more shares were bought or sold on that particular day.

That's why I like technical analysis over the fundamentals. To me, the market is rallying today because sentiment became extremely bearish and the market became extremely oversold. The media will just use the news of the day to justify the move.
 
watching to see if today is just gap fill action from 5/19's low. But, there's volume on the currency action... huge volume.
 
The Dow Transports are down sharply today (2.6%) after hitting the 50-day EMA yesterday. This doesn't look good, but it hasn't broken down yet. Looks like it needs a reversal very soon to keep the "bounce" going.

060410b.gif
 
The S&P is still holding on and if it can survive the day (and Monday) without breaking the short-term uptrend, we could see a push higher similar to the February low. If it doesn't hold... new game.

060410c.gif


There is a tendency to see stocks reverse a big market move caused by a surprise jobs report, in the coming trading days. The info is somewhere on the board as the data from sentimentrader.com has been posted a few times before.

"The tendency to reverse over the course of the day, or next few days, from large gaps following these kinds of economic releases are just too strong to ignore"
- sentimentrader.com
 
It's OK. The market should rally now. I'll be out (G) tomorrow. :D But I am still in SSO with a stop below the recent lows.

Looks like we'll either rebound from here, or drop off the cliff. I'll protect my unflexible TSP account by selling, and keep stops in the IRA positions in case we rebound. (I also bought a little VXX for a little more protection in case the stops are hit). It would sure be nice to have intra-day stops in our TSP, but I guess we're just lucky we still get two monthly end of day trades.
 
Transports' descending wedge is being tested on the top end again. They tend to break to the upside when they do break, but whether it moves down to the lower end again first remains to be seen.

It's back above the long-term rising trend so it is looking better, and the choppiness is representative of a bottom formation. Tempting, but would like to see it move above 4255-4260 and eventually the 50-day EMA near 4357. It's already tested and failed at the 50-day EMA once already, and now it is getting ready to test the 20-day EMA (4281).

Place yer bets!

061010a.gif
 
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