tsptalk's Market Talk

[JTH]

Great looking chart Tom, I see you have 3 touches on each side. Bullowski put the percentage up an upwards breakout at 68%

 

[tsptalk]

Too many ducks lining up. I used IFT #2 today to buy this morning. I still have the G fund card to use if wrong.

IRA still long SSO with stops being raised. I added a little TNA, and a still hold a small position in VXX for some protection.

 

[coolhand]

Too many ducks lining up.

What kind of ducks are you talking about? The ones I've been seeing lately have teeth. :cheesy:

View attachment 9552

 

[crws]

going in at 80 S tonite to test the triple witching data.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=8465
Looks like next week housing starts are a biggie, which I've read will mirror employment #'s.
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/201024.html

There is a push in the Senate to extend the housing tax credit that will as of now finalize the end of June with transactions in process.
That would be good, but the urgency ahead of the #'s could be a bad indicator......

DateTime (ET)StatisticForActualBriefing ForecastMarket ExpectsPrior Jun 168:30 AMHousing StartsMay-NA655K672K
Jun 168:30 AMBuilding PermitsMay-NA655K610K

 

[tsptalk]

What kind of ducks are you talking about? The ones I've been seeing lately have teeth. :cheesy:

View attachment 9552

LOL... Rydex cash flow ratio, descending wedge, the MACD, put/call ratios, sentiment surveys, double bottom at support, positive seasonality during options week in June, and this one, which needs a picture because I don't know how to describe it.

I can't fight it any more.

 

[robo]

LOL... Rydex cash flow ratio, descending wedge, the MACD, put/call ratios, sentiment surveys, double bottom at support, positive seasonality during options week in June, and this one, which needs a picture because I don't know how to describe it.

I can't fight it any more.

Don't forget to add the 3 breadth explosion days in the past three weeks of

20 to 1 - 36 to 1 and 44 to 1 and I think you about covered it Tom. What a Bull Trap this could turn out to be or the start of the next trend! We must have a plan for both....

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=120673

 

[tsptalk]

Can the S&P finally break the 1105 area today? I feel silly not selling this new "top of the range" rally opportunity, but if keeps a knock'in, eventually it will let us in.

 

[Birchtree]

Would you feel more confident with the Dow at 10,400? We might conceivably see it today.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not a Dow guy as far as TA goes. The S&P is my benchmark and all eyes are on 1105.

 

[Birchtree]

Stick a fork in the SPX - it's done in the next 15 minutes - up and over 1105 on the way to 1108.

 

[tsptalk]

I see. 1108.62 is where the S&P's SMA (simple MA) began the day and we are just seeing a push above it now. The 200-day EMA is now under 1100 so it has been taken out and may no longer be a factor, unless we get another weak close and move back below it.

 

[JTH]

Awesome to see a breakout above SPX 1105. The next area I'll be watching is 1121, a 50% retracement from the October 2007 high to March 2008 low. Here's a monthly chart showing the 50% with a yellow line.

View attachment 9572

 

[tsptalk]

The leader...

It makes a higher high, and is now trading back above the 20, 50 and 200-day EMA's...

We need a solid close.

 

[Birchtree]

Take the Trainny index to 4500 in the last hour - that'll attract some attention.

 

[Silverbird]

China and other countries [Japan] buy US Treasury debt
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvs4bqHvaxiS5Ii-VEjJFbdsz-MgD9GBPSNG3

 

[JTH]

Which way do we go?

Trapped between the 50/100 EMA up top, and the 20/200 EMA down below, with a higher high and a lower low which way do we go? :cheesy:

View attachment 9588

 

[tsptalk]

Looking at the futures, it looks like a 50-day EMA break could be in the works for Monday morning. We'll have to see how things close, but with the Dow, Naz, and Transports already there...

 

[Warrenlm]

FWIW, Meredith Whitney said this morning on CNBC that a double dip in housing is certain. She declined to put a guess on a double dip for the economy as a whole. She did admit she's been bearish for some time but went through the litany of data pointing to a less than Birchtree moment. She discussed the impact of state/local layoffs which I think she pegged at 2m jobs and something she called "debanking".

The absolute certainty that housing prices are going down again was general. She did not qualify it with a discussion of markets.

She restated that it will be a lot more expensive to be poor.

 

[Birchtree]

I can count four homes in my immediate neighbor hood that are for sale - it becomes tempting to cash out some stocks and make those purchases. But at my age I don't want the aggravation of being a landlord - so they sit until someone younger comes along.

 

[hessian]

Looking at the futures, it looks like a 50-day EMA break could be in the works for Monday morning. We'll have to see how things close, but with the Dow, Naz, and Transports already there...

Tom,
Right now, intraday, the charts above and the S&P500 all seem, to have hit off of their Upper Bollinger Band, and currently moving lower/flat with their 50 MA. I recognize that you have been watching the EMAs (e.g. 50 EMA) - and wanted to ask whether there is a reason that you watch the EMAs (20/50/200) vs the Simple MAs?
Are EMAs more correct to watch for cross-overs/reversals?
VR!
(Also, just wondering if you might see a "W-V" pattern as a possible setup for the coming holiday?)