tsptalk's Market Talk

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I have grown accustomed to the EMA's for a couple of reasons, one being that they are the default MA's on decisionpoint.com. The 200-day Simple Average may be more universally used than the 200-day EMA, so when we flirt with the 200 EMA, I like to see what the 200 SMA is doing also.
 
In the simplest sense, I'm looking to see if we get downside volume with yesterday's Shooting Star
The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star position, hence its name. A Shooting Star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level. The candlestick forms when prices gap higher on the open, advance during the session and close well off their highs. The resulting candlestick has a long upper shadow and small black or white body. After a large advance (the upper shadow), the ability of the bears to force prices down raises the yellow flag. To indicate a substantial reversal, the upper shadow should relatively long and at least 2 times the length of the body. Bearish confirmation is required after the Shooting Star and can take the form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
Click to expand...
 
I've seen enough. I'm using the intraday rally to get out of my long ETF's (nice trades), and I hate to do it, but I'm using my last IFT in June to go to G.
 
tsptalk said:
I've seen enough. I'm using the intraday rally to get out of my long ETF's (nice trades), and I hate to do it, but I'm using my last IFT in June to go to G.
Click to expand...
That was close. Sold SSO and TNA near HOD, shew! Too bad we can't do that in our TSP accts. I am taking the full force of this sell off in there as I wait for the close. Another reason I prefer an IRA over the TSP with unmatched funds.
 
tsptalk said:
That was close. Sold SSO and TNA near HOD, shew! Too bad we can't do that in our TSP accts. I am taking the full force of this sell off in there as I wait for the close. Another reason I prefer an IRA over the TSP with unmatched funds.
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Good call, as for the last IFT, although using it on the G-Fund might sting a little, you'll sure feel better if we drop from here. These markets haven't compelled me to leave the F-Fund, so I may go the entire month not getting to use my last IFT. So be it...
 
AGG (F-Fund) closed the highest in 5 years today.
(JTH- hopefully I got this right ;))

agg6.22.png
 
crws said:
AGG (F-Fund) closed the highest in 5 years today.
(JTH- hopefully I got this right ;))

agg6.22.png
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Actually I hadn't noticed so thanks for pointing it out to me. AGG's highest Daily close ever!!! Good day to be in the F-Fund :D
 
hessian said:
Anyone, thoughts on this?
"Rarely does it get this blatant..... this sort of crap goes on every day, but once in a while it's just "in your face."
Tonight was one of those examples." http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
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Good post Hessian !

I know that this is happening. It is downright corrupt but it happens. Just another reason that gives me distrust in the markets.

I'm still looking for a chance to make a couple of percent this year. I would be very happy with a positive 10%. :)
 
hessian said:
Anyone, thoughts on this?
"Rarely does it get this blatant..... this sort of crap goes on every day, but once in a while it's just "in your face."
Tonight was one of those examples." http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Click to expand...
I bet it goes on everywhere, every day. I have my suspicions about the folks running the TSP. Can you imaging the advantage of knowing all of the TSP transactions at noon ET, which won't take affect until 4 PM ET?

How about the fact that they have to "make up" a share price after the close, and not have to post it until 7 PM ET?

They may not be doing anything wrong, but in a business that is all about making dollars and cents, I would be surprised if someone isn't benefiting from this advantage somewhere.
 
tsptalk said:
I bet it goes on everywhere, every day. I have my suspicions about the folks running the TSP. Can you imaging the advantage of knowing all of the TSP transactions at noon ET, which won't take affect until 4 PM ET?

How about the fact that they have to "make up" a share price after the close, and not have to post it until 7 PM ET?

They may not be doing anything wrong, but in a business that is all about making dollars and cents, I would be surprised if someone isn't benefiting from this advantage somewhere.
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It is clearly stated on Blackrocks' site they don't engage in proprietary trading, and with pals like this, why risk it?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/business/08blackrock.html
BlackRock Is Fix-It Firm to Manage Risky Assets of Others in Distress

By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED
 Published: May 8, 2008
One Saturday morning in March, Laurence D. Fink got some urgent news: Wall Street needed his help.

Mr. Fink runs BlackRock, a money management company whose name probably rings few bells outside financial circles. But on that March weekend the Federal Reserve, moving to defuse a crisis threatening the American financial system, began turning to BlackRock to play a critical role in the government-brokered rescue of Bear Stearns, the faltering investment bank.
Now, under the aegis of the Fed, BlackRock is managing $30 billion of hard-to-sell assets from Bear Stearns, part of the central bank’s unprecedented deal with JPMorgan Chase under which JPMorgan took control of the investment bank.
Mr. Fink, 55, is reluctant to talk about the assignment, and with good reason. If BlackRock fumbles, the Fed, and by extension taxpayers, could lose billions.
In Washington, some question the arrangement, saying it puts taxpayers’ money at too much risk. But on Wall Street, Mr. Fink’s job for the Fed, along with other high-profile work, is quickly earning him a reputation as the Mr. Fix-It in the troubled credit markets. And for BlackRock, that means business — lots of it.
 
Nice action today. I am holding my TSP stock positions, but will lighten up (sold about 28%) on my IRA's aggressive ETF position on this push toward resistance.

I think there could be enough ammo (bearishness) to break above it, but I prefer to pocket some gains for another day -just in case.

Remember, this is a falling wedge which tends to breakout to the upside, but it could also move down to test the lower end again before it does so. You never know.

071310a.gif
 
tsptalk said:
Nice action today. I am holding my TSP stock positions, but will lighten up (sold about 28%) on my IRA's aggressive ETF position on this push toward resistance.

I think there could be enough ammo (bearishness) to break above it, but I prefer to pocket some gains for another day -just in case.

Remember, this is a falling wedge which tends to breakout to the upside, but it could also move down to test the lower end again before it does so. You never know.

071310a.gif
Click to expand...


Great stuff Tom, but what happens when a falling wedge is also a potential Head & Shoulders? Does one trump the other, or more importantly, are the falling wedge upside breakout stats the same? I honestly don't know the answer to that question, but I'll sure bet Bulkowski has it stashed on his PC.
 
JTH said:
Great stuff Tom, but what happens when a falling wedge is also a potential Head & Shoulders? Does one trump the other, or more importantly, are the falling wedge upside breakout stats the same? I honestly don't know the answer to that question, but I'll sure bet Bulkowski has it stashed on his PC.
Click to expand...
I'm just going to play it by ear, but my hunch is we could see a test of the middle of the head (1150-1170) or possibly a new high (ala 2007) before things turn sour in the fall.

I will comletely change that theory if we can't get over the 200-day EMA and / or the S&P goes back below the 1040 neckline area.
 
It could be time for bonds to start their roll - we all know the direction. They will provide plenty of liquidity for equities.
 
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