06/18/25
The stock market has become choppy lately as the geopolitical events added to the uncertainty as oil prices have gone on the rise. The small caps (S-fund) kept pace with the losses in the S&P 500 while the I-fund lagged because of strength in the dollar. Decliners beat advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Bonds (F-fund) rallied on lower yields.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The stock market has not broken down, but it has certainly stopped going up since the situation in the Middle easy escalated. The price of oil has taken off with that escalation and that's causing some concern. Like yields, a $75 a barrel price of oil isn't so much the problem, it is the rapid pace at which it got there as it is up almost 50% since the May low.
The longer-term chart shows some resistance in this $75 area so we'll see if technical analysis helps keep this under control.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has held up despite the recent events. It has just stopped rallying, but can we complain about a pause after the 20% plus rally off the April low? The PMO Indicator moved below its moving average to waive a yellow flag, but so far the chart is holding above key support - but it also remains below key resistance.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down and that put it back below its 50-day average, but it remains in that long ascending trading channel. The fact that this has held within the range in the face of the missiles flying in the Mid East, may tell us that the bond market is not overly concerned about this impacting the financial markets.
The June seasonality chart is hitting a headwind over the next several days. The average return is negative for every day but the 19th going back 30 years, but June 19 has been a holiday since 2021. Looking at the Percentage of Times Positive line (navy blue) it is choppy for the next few days, but the 22nd through the 26th look bad. Is it worth using an IFT over this tendency?
Source: sentimentrader.com
We get the Fed's decision on interest rates after today's FOMC meeting. Look for their monetary policy statement at 2 PM ET, and a press conference with Powell afterward.
The TSP and the stock market are closed on Thursday so we will be back here on Friday.
Holiday Closing: From tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (June 19) will be processed Friday night (June 20) at Friday's closing share prices."
The DWCPF / S-fund was down again and it is dancing on a key support line - the bottom of a flag or channel-like formation which, if it breaks, would likely test the 50-day EMA near 2160. Of course it could hold at that support and make another move toward the top of the channel / flag. The larger formation is a bullish looking inverted head and shoulders pattern, but in the short term it may be trying to fill in the right shoulder. However, some technical analysts might interpret this as an inverted head and shoulders pattern that has already broken out, and pulled back to successfully test the neckline already.
The ACWX (I-fund) broke down below its trading channel but found support at the 20-day EMA. That's a yellow flag, but notice that the dollar (UUP) broke above its resistance lines. Is this a double bottom in the UUP after the test of the April lows have been holding?
BND / F-fund was up as yields moved lower, and the BND chart held again at the top of that old descending channel. As I have been saying, the bond market has basically been ignoring the crisis is the Mid East for the most part, but suddenly it is showing some life.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow on Friday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The stock market has become choppy lately as the geopolitical events added to the uncertainty as oil prices have gone on the rise. The small caps (S-fund) kept pace with the losses in the S&P 500 while the I-fund lagged because of strength in the dollar. Decliners beat advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Bonds (F-fund) rallied on lower yields.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The stock market has not broken down, but it has certainly stopped going up since the situation in the Middle easy escalated. The price of oil has taken off with that escalation and that's causing some concern. Like yields, a $75 a barrel price of oil isn't so much the problem, it is the rapid pace at which it got there as it is up almost 50% since the May low.
The longer-term chart shows some resistance in this $75 area so we'll see if technical analysis helps keep this under control.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has held up despite the recent events. It has just stopped rallying, but can we complain about a pause after the 20% plus rally off the April low? The PMO Indicator moved below its moving average to waive a yellow flag, but so far the chart is holding above key support - but it also remains below key resistance.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down and that put it back below its 50-day average, but it remains in that long ascending trading channel. The fact that this has held within the range in the face of the missiles flying in the Mid East, may tell us that the bond market is not overly concerned about this impacting the financial markets.
The June seasonality chart is hitting a headwind over the next several days. The average return is negative for every day but the 19th going back 30 years, but June 19 has been a holiday since 2021. Looking at the Percentage of Times Positive line (navy blue) it is choppy for the next few days, but the 22nd through the 26th look bad. Is it worth using an IFT over this tendency?
Source: sentimentrader.com
We get the Fed's decision on interest rates after today's FOMC meeting. Look for their monetary policy statement at 2 PM ET, and a press conference with Powell afterward.
The TSP and the stock market are closed on Thursday so we will be back here on Friday.
Holiday Closing: From tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (June 19) will be processed Friday night (June 20) at Friday's closing share prices."
The DWCPF / S-fund was down again and it is dancing on a key support line - the bottom of a flag or channel-like formation which, if it breaks, would likely test the 50-day EMA near 2160. Of course it could hold at that support and make another move toward the top of the channel / flag. The larger formation is a bullish looking inverted head and shoulders pattern, but in the short term it may be trying to fill in the right shoulder. However, some technical analysts might interpret this as an inverted head and shoulders pattern that has already broken out, and pulled back to successfully test the neckline already.
The ACWX (I-fund) broke down below its trading channel but found support at the 20-day EMA. That's a yellow flag, but notice that the dollar (UUP) broke above its resistance lines. Is this a double bottom in the UUP after the test of the April lows have been holding?
BND / F-fund was up as yields moved lower, and the BND chart held again at the top of that old descending channel. As I have been saying, the bond market has basically been ignoring the crisis is the Mid East for the most part, but suddenly it is showing some life.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow on Friday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
