tsptalk's Market Talk

[Birchtree]

I think we don't look back until spring. "The Fed may not see its 2% inflation objective achieved until after the end of 2016." The most bullish thing a market can do is go up and this tape is exemplifying the truth in that phrase.

 

[Minnow]

What are everyone's thoughts on the Santa Claus Rally? Is it likely we go up a couple percent before the end of the year?

I think we drop a bit after Thanksgiving but I do believe December will be profitable for those staying in the market.

 

[bmneveu]

Sector Tracker - Track the movement of the 9 Sector SPDRs

We would be sitting pretty comfortably today if energy (oil) wasn't taking such a huge dump.

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like the strength in the dollar today is having its affect. Selling off in the last hour...

Think I'll go play 9 holes. It will be nearly 60 degrees here in Utah today.

 

[bmneveu]

S&P is testing the neckline and it appears to be supporting.

Edit: for now anyway.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't know. It looks like a breakdown in the SPY so far, but the close is the key. The small gap did get filled...

 

[bmneveu]

Oh yea that definitely looks like a breakdown. Not sure what I was looking at? I may have my line drawn differently. I'll have to check later when I get home.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

 

[bmneveu]

This morning's selloff played perfectly to the reverse head & shoulders setup, but we are seeing a big buying push throughout the day. Smallcaps have completely reversed and are far into positive territory now. S&P is still negative but has a big kangaroo tail in place now.

 

[tsptalk]

Agree, but the kangaroo tail isn't cemented in until the close so the bulls need to keep the pressure on into the close (3 hours left).

 

[WorkFE]

but we are seeing a big buying push throughout the day. Smallcaps have completely reversed and are far into positive territory now.

Some folks are starving for a few points pre-New Years day. Dips like this are enticing, no?
Who is buying, that's the question.

 

[tsptalk]

Who is buying, that's the question.

That's a good question.

There have been a number of cautionary signs from sentiment models lately. Over the weekend, Barron's featured an interview with Neil Leeson of Ned Davis Research:

Leeson on Friday pointed to his firm’s crowd sentiment poll, which recently clocked in at “extremely optimistic” levels. Chart watchers often consider sentiment to function as a contrary indicator, one that can presage overly enthusiastic markets that are ripe to turn lower.

“This typically is not a great sign for the market going forward, at least in the near term,” Leeson said...

More specifically, Leeson singles out massive money flows into large-cap stock ETFs like the SPDR S+P 500 ETF (ARCA:SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (ARCA:DIA) as a red flag. In November, all large-cap stock ETFs took in $25 billion, the most ever.
​

Sentiment Readings: Cautious Investors But More Room To Rally | Investing.com

 

[tsptalk]

The big intraday rebound can take a lot out of the indices. It will be a good sign if they close near their highs, but they may be tired. You could see another attempt by the bears to push it down again in the last 2 hours.

 

[tsptalk]

The September pattern is still intact. It's not exact but you can see investors / traders can repeat actions in similar situations.

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[MrJohnRoss]

What I find interesting is the graph of the High Beta Portfolio vs the S&P 500. If traders are gung-ho on the market, they're willing to stick their necks out on higher beta stocks. The weekly graph is showing just the opposite. After peaking in late June, traders are getting more conservative, and the graph has a definite rounding top pattern. The PPO and CCI are showing declining strength as well. Sure looks like a sign of caution for the markets ahead.

 

[bmneveu]

Looks like we are rolling over a little bit this afternoon. Still plenty of gains on the day, but the strength is waning.

 

[bmneveu]

And the rollover rolls into to big future losses this morning. Big gap downs looming on the horizon for today.

 

[tsptalk]

50-day EMA was tested and held early. The gap created by the weak open then got filled. Now what?... I don't think it's going to be that easy for the bulls, but maybe by the close we'll have more.

 

[weatherweenie]

50-day EMA was tested and held early. The gap created by the weak open then got filled. Now what?... I don't think it's going to be that easy for the bulls, but maybe by the close we'll have more.

I doubt that we will see much buying going into the weekend. Hopefully I am wrong, again.