tsptalk's Market Talk

Interesting situation. Last two tests of 50-day EMA from below like today's resulted in 2 different outcomes. First one led to another push lower. The second one led to a one-day pullback and then onto new highs.

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Interesting situation. Last two tests of 50-day EMA from below like today's resulted in 2 different outcomes. First one led to another push lower. The second one led to a one-day pullback and then onto new highs.

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Wow, wild day. Big swings...

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t


Those are 30 to 45 S&P point moves.
 
As once again we sell-off into the close...

This is becoming somewhat of a concern. Is the market going to continue to drop as the dumb money continues to throw in their lot expecting a Santa rally that never comes?
 
I felt that was a worthwhile risk, so I went from 100% G to 25% C & 25& S. I don't like the deadline either but I am glad that I didn't buy in as high as I as I thought I would and even bought lower. :)

I really wish we had at least three positive IFTs per month. Two is just too hard.
 
Privided we get a DCB tomorrow, extremely possible cinsidering the VIX spike, could be a juicey bone.

I say its extremely unlikely to have a DCB (dead cat bounce) tomorrow; this type of event - when it occurs - is usually early in a decline, and after an extreme drop (usually >2%). That already happened December 11 following the decline of December 10. You usually don't see two DCB's in one event although we did see that recently (October 3 and 8), and what followed wasn't pretty.
 
Today's rally still needs to get above the 50-day EMA, and even just yesterday's high, to lessen chances of a complete retracement tomorrow.

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tsptalk....Today's rally still needs to get above the 50-day EMA, and even just yesterday's high, to lessen chances of a complete retracement tomorrow.

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Thanks Tom...... Confirms my conviction for a close above 2009-2016 area
before going LONG the Market...
 
I say its extremely unlikely to have a DCB (dead cat bounce) tomorrow; this type of event - when it occurs - is usually early in a decline, and after an extreme drop (usually >2%). That already happened December 11 following the decline of December 10. You usually don't see two DCB's in one event although we did see that recently (October 3 and 8), and what followed wasn't pretty.

Nothing like being dead wrong - so what the heck - I waded in ankle deep yesterday (10%) and up to my waist COB today (60%); I know this is a bit early for the X-mas rally but the SPY looked stable above 2,025 so threw some chips in on it. Some of this has to be chasing Tuesday's late day selloff, but I think there still could be some further upward drift especially if volumes come down - which they usually do this time of year.
 
I completely understand what you did. I went with L2020 on Monday and have stayed there, but I was out of the market for too long. I can't contribute to TSP, this is REAL money to me, I am not competing with anyone on TSPTalk and have to live at my comfort (risk) level and L2020 was fine for me. I will look at a second IFT later this month, but I am OK with being a turtle.

Nothing like being dead wrong - so what the heck - I waded in ankle deep yesterday (10%) and up to my waist COB today (60%); I know this is a bit early for the X-mas rally but the SPY looked stable above 2,025 so threw some chips in on it. Some of this has to be chasing Tuesday's late day selloff, but I think there still could be some further upward drift especially if volumes come down - which they usually do this time of year.
 
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