tsptalk's Market Talk

[jkenjohnson]

There's also the surge in the trade deficit.

 

[Mapper]

~$80/bbl is the generally accepted make/break profitability price for much of the relatively expensive Western US oil extraction operations. A couple weeks ago folks were saying the Saudis were trying to undercut Russian producers. So, who are they trying to undercut now?

 

[jpcavin]

~$80/bbl is the generally accepted make/break profitability price for much of the relatively expensive Western US oil extraction operations. A couple weeks ago folks were saying the Saudis were trying to undercut Russian producers. So, who are they trying to undercut now?

Iran? Fracking in the US?

 

[bmneveu]

They are trying to undercut US. They still want us as a customer but we are providing more and more for ourselves without the transportation costs. Their process is cheaper, but costs a lot to get here. I can't imagine oil getting any cheaper than it is now. But then again, I was saying that at $80.

 

[tsptalk]

All the open gaps I mentioned in this week's commentary have been filled.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/3050-pause-before-election.html

The question now is whether the bottoms of those gaps act as support. So far today they have and the SPY is back above the gap.

 

[WorkFE]

I can't imagine oil getting any cheaper than it is now.

Less than 5 years ago it was selling around 40 a barrel. I'd say there's a bit more room. IMHO.

 

[ILoveTDs]

As long as the dollar increases in the exchange rate imported goods will get cheaper and cheaper, including oil.

With the death of QE watch the exchage rate gap continue to grow; and PM continue to drop - Gold under 1100.

 

[Mapper]

Less than 5 years ago it was selling around 40 a barrel. I'd say there's a bit more room. IMHO.

????

The OPEC "target" price for the last 5+ years has been $90-100 and that's where it has oscillated, more or less, that whole time.

 

[tsptalk]

The $40 price was at the depths of a financial collapse, so the lower it goes, the more nervous the stock market is getting. Maybe not here in the U.S. yet, but global demand is decreasing.

 

[WorkFE]

Ok, 5 years ago and a few months.

 

[bmneveu]

Inverted Head & Shoulders neckline looks like the resistance du jour.

Edit: don't mind the green arrow and wording. those are my own IFT notes.

 

[tsptalk]

The Japanese Nikkei is getting hit hard tonight; down over 500-points or about 3%.

Japan slips into surprise recession...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-third-quarter-gdp-unexpectedly-000046121.html

 

[Sensei]

The Japanese Nikkei is getting hit hard tonight; down over 500-points or about 3%.

Japan slips into surprise recession...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-third-quarter-gdp-unexpectedly-000046121.html

European markets and US futures seem to be shaking it off. Only slightly in the red.

 

[Frixxxx]

European markets and US futures seem to be shaking it off. Only slightly in the red.

I don't think it will hold, day traders will be punching if they bought the fear. Not a bad place to jump out for those who bought at the bottom of the last dip.

Hang on!

 

[bmneveu]

If small caps lead the way, we are heading down in the very near future.

 

[Sensei]

Nikkei is back up and cracklin'.

 

[tsptalk]

It's only half time but they got back half of Monday's losses. What's the over/under for the 2nd half?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Nikkei is back up and cracklin'.

Yen Drops as Abe Said to Plan Dissolving Parliament, Delay Tax

Yen Drops as Abe Said to Plan Dissolving Parliament, Delay Tax - Bloomberg

 

[Warrenlm]

Dissolving parliament...hmmm....and just yesterday some pundits on the tellie were saying Abe was smart to orchestrate a point where he could get the consumption tax increase rolled back. I still have my Yen that I got at the 308 Y to 1$ ratio.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

What are everyone's thoughts on the Santa Claus Rally? Is it likely we go up a couple percent before the end of the year?