tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Are we close to a capitulation, or will the market bleed us to death? A couple of possible areas of support for the S&P...

It feels a little capitulatory this morning. Is that a word?

 

[nnuut]

Yes it is a word, but I'd rather give up!:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is now very close to the 20 level - that's a buy signal in my book. Plus Dow Theory is still on a buy signal. Our current consolidation will end sooner than later.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, it hit 22 this morning and now 19+. As I wrote in my commentary this week, the VIX hasn't closed above its 200-week moving average since late 2012. The 200-week EMA is currently 16.95. Must have been a lot of Friday afternoon rallies over the last couple of years.

 

[bmneveu]

Something we haven't seen in awhile today, small caps are outperforming large caps by a good bit.

 

[tsptalk]

At some point they're cheap. Are we there yet?

 

[tsptalk]

OK, here's the panic. Now, where will it close? Big kangaroo tail, or another leg down?

 

[dpmp]

It surely feels different when you sideline watching the stampede going.

I've been out since Monday of last week (on the day S&P dropped 30 pts). But I have never been good at determining the entry point. Could you share the strategy?

 

[tsptalk]

You mean, buy low, sell high?

This looks like a capitulation, (I know, I've said that before.) A big reversal on heavy volume. A strong close would be ideal for a bottom.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

You mean, buy low, sell high?

This looks like a capitulation, (I know, I've said that before.) A big reversal on heavy volume. A strong close would be ideal for a bottom.

That's my problem right there! Lately I've been buying high and selling low. Not good for the bottom line! Lol!

 

[dpmp]

I've been fortunate last couple of instances. Not so much of $ profit, but gaining more shares buying low.

Right now, S&P is nowhere near any support. Well, actually, 1810 is about the 10% haircut. But if it doesn't hold, then share price would be a lot cheaper.

 

[tsptalk]

It sure seems like something is happening that we're unaware of. This drop in yields is just not normal.

When the headlines eventually hit, we'll understand this action. But right now, most of us are in the dark...

 

[Mapper]

It sure seems like something is happening that we're unaware of. This drop in yields is just not normal.

When the headlines eventually hit, we'll understand this action. But right now, most of us are in the dark...

European weakness leading to possible deflation as predicted by economists not driven by austerity dogma screaming "inflation, inflation!". I won't be surprised to see the first part of that hit headlines but don't imagine the 2nd part will. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Mapper]

Printed in the lead story on the NYtimes at 2:32 PM:

"The main focus of this fear is Europe, which is struggling with persistently slow growth and the threat of deflation."

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/stocks-tumble-on-global-growth-worries/?_php=true&_type=blogs&hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LargeMediaHeadlineSum&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

If you want to know about the 2nd part of my comment and you can handle reading real economics research the "zero lower bound".

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks, mapper. Yes, now that you mention it, I am hearing deflation being thrown around on cnbc. Makes sense on the bond yields. But today could be a capitulation day for the 10 year yield.

 

[bmneveu]

Nice Kangaroo Tail put in at the end of the day. Let's hope the low is in.

 

[weatherweenie]

Nice Kangaroo Tail put in at the end of the day. Let's hope the low is in.

Futures just took a dump.

 

[tsptalk]

Crazy swings. That was a 200-point rally from low to high in less than 5 minutes, then it gave a lot of it back about as quickly...

 

[Warrenlm]

Heard a comment that as oil falls below $80 it adversely affects North American oil exploration, discovery and production, whereas Saudi oil costs $10 and they can sit happily watching our "independence" prospects get hit. Maybe this is a factor that until it stabilizes north of $80 will continue to adversely impact the market?

 

[tsptalk]

Heard similar about the Canadians - too much under $80 and it isn't profitable.

But, < $80 really hurts Russia and Venezuela, so...