tsptalk's Market Talk

[dpmp]

Whatever the strength yesterday and today almost convinced me that the turnaround was in, but I decided to cancel the pending request. It could be the head fake when S&P touched the 5% haircut support and the automated orders stormed in along with short coverings.

The charts are still showing the market within the declining price channel; shouldn't excite me at this point. Hope I'm still right.

 

[bmneveu]

Here are my thoughts...

Friday and Monday were both up days.
"Turnaround Tuesday" has been pretty accurate over the last year or so.
Futures look pretty strong to the upside.
Hopefully the futures hold to prevent the turnaround.
If that happens, it gives me more confidence that the bottom is in.

 

[tsptalk]

Agree. If it can close near the current levels, we're breaking some important resistance. But one more Ebola case and everything could change.

 

[Minnow]

Every time we have a trading environment like the one going on right now, I get pi$$ed off thinking about not having our unlimited moves.

Dammit, I'm a peacock.... you gotta let me fly FRTIB!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

If we don't nail down a +238 point gain on the Dow I'll be sorely agitated - but the opportunity is available for even more gains. The ECB is starting to stir.

 

[jpcavin]

Every time we have a trading environment like the one going on right now, I get pi$$ed off thinking about not having our unlimited moves.

Dammit, I'm a peacock.... you gotta let me fly FRTIB!!!!

I thought you were minnow?

 

[Minnow]

I thought you were minnow?

I guess it's my dual nature. I need to fly... you know like a peacock or penguin or ostrich. -- thus my autotracker positioning.

 

[tsptalk]

50-day EMA got in the way this morning on the Russell and S&P. Now there's that open gap to deal with, and as I mentioned in today's commentary, they seem to always get filled....

 

[FireWeatherMet]

50-day EMA got in the way this morning on the Russell and S&P. Now there's that open gap to deal with, and as I mentioned in today's commentary, they seem to always get filled....

Interesting,
How far down is that filler for the open gap, in your opinion?

 

[tsptalk]

Probably something similar to these gaps. The bottom of the gap could get penetrated, but not for too long - unless we get the action similar to July's fill which broke down - but that may be the exception during a rally.

 

[nick]

Wow, Dow closed over 17,000 and S&P nearing the 2000 mark again. That recovered quickly.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

 

[tsptalk]

The bears were sure hibernating today in front of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The bears were sure hibernating today in front of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

So if the Fed says the same thing they've been saying for years"no rate hikes for the next few months or longer" would that be already baked into today's rally?

Just wondering, given that after tomorrow there are only 2 trading days left, would it make more sense stepping briefly aside before jumping back in next week?

 

[tsptalk]

I think today's rally could have been the ebola sigh of relief after Obama spoke. The concern for the Fed tomorrow is what they say about deflation. That's what's hurting Europe now so we'll see if they think it will have any impact on us.

 

[tsptalk]

Something we've been looking at in the TSP Talk Plus reports this week...

The red boxes were the Tuesday / Wednesday meetings with the Wednesday policy statement announced.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Only concern for this correlation is that there wasn't such a strong $ and the BOJ significantly increasing their QE in September... we'll see what happens this month.

 

[tsptalk]

True. And it was a different market environment where stocks had been drifting lower before the Sep. meeting. This is purely technical analysis.

 

[tsptalk]

The Saudis just cut the U.S. price of oil sending the WTIC price down to $78+. That seems to be taking some steam out of the stock market at the moment (about 2:20 PM ET).

 

[Mapper]

The Saudis just cut the U.S. price of oil sending the WTIC price down to $78+. That seems to be taking some steam out of the stock market at the moment (about 2:20 PM ET).

Thanks for keeping us posted. I think this cutting the cost of oil thing is going to cause some stirs (headlines, postulating, granstanding, weird market reactions etc.) going forward. What it all means is anyone's guess but something to keep tabs on.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, oil is down another $2 to $76+.