tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The dollar and yields are up. The dollar filled in Monday's open gap, opening yet another gap on the downside. I count 5 now open below the current level.

I'm surprised stocks are doing so well with the 10-year jumping back over 1.5%.

Several indices are testing overhear resistance right now, including a big rally in the Transports which puts it back up near its 50 and 100-day EMAs.

We probably need to see a follow through day tomorrow, assuming the rally hold into the afternoon, otherwise this could be another bull trap rally.

 

[tsptalk]

Yet another gap on the dollar - that's 5 open gaps below the current price. Yield are down after a slight pop higher on the ADP report.

Oil down, yields down, and the dollar up are giving small caps a rough go this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action: Stocks gap up, the 10-year yields moves up on better than expected weekly jobless claims, and the dollar is down.

Possible deal in DC for the debt ceiling is being talked about on Wall Street.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields up again, and I see that may be causing the Nasdaq to lag this morning. The dollar is down and commodities are up.

 

[tsptalk]

So far we have a negative outside reversal day in the S&P 500, but that could change with a strong close.

Oil is over $81 a barrel this morning and at some point the stock market will reject this.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are fairly flat this morning. Stocks are mixed with small caps and the Transports leading, Nasdaq lagging.

The retail sector is dong OK today as well, but it has been struggling in recent months. We get the retail sales report on Friday, and that could be interesting with the recent worker shortage.

Also, if you missed it in today's commentary...

"This week will be a BIG week as far as inflation data goes, so it could be an interesting week for the stock and bond markets. Here's the economic data lineup according to briefing.com:"

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Oct 13
08:30 ET: CPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3%

08:30 ET: Core CPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.1%

10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories
For: 10/09 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: +2.35M

14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes

Oct 14
08:30 ET: PPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.6% | Prior: 0.7%

08:30 ET: Core PPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.5% | Cons: 0.5% | Prior: 0.6%

08:30 ET: Initial Claims
For: 10/09 | Forecast: 323K | Cons: 332K | Prior: 326K08:30 ET: Continuing Claims
For: 10/02 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: 2.714M

Oct 15
08:30 ET: Retail Sales
For: Sep | Forecast: -0.5% | Cons: -0.3% | Prior: 0.7%

08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.4% | Prior: 1.8%

10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim
For: Oct | Forecast: 73.0 | Cons: 73.5 | Prior: 72.8​

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[/TABLE]

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are mixed after a CPI report that was a little hotter than expected (0.3% vs. 0.4% expected), although the core CPI (excludes food and energy), was a littler lighter than expected (0.2% vs. 0.3% expected).

Yields are down on that - for some reason, and that is helping big tech bounce back today, but the rest of the market is struggling a little more with modest losses so far in the S&P 500 and small caps, although they are bouncing around quite a bit.

The dollar is down and the inflationary CPI is also popping commodity prices this morning with gold up about $30 (2%) and silver up $0.67 (3%).

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are down and the dollar is flat. Stocks rallying on BOA earnings, but the momentum from yesterday's positive reversal has something to do with it. We'll see if it can hold.

The Russell 2000 futures have gone almost straight up since 2:45 AM on 10/12 (about 30 hours) and that's a move from 2194 to 2267, or 3.3%. Could be getting overbought in the short-term.

 

[FAAM]

Darn, I'm mostly missing this tide change for the week, as my IFT attempt a couple days ago was 0901 PDT, I was in meetings though IFT time yesterday, and don't want to chase it now. Good luck to y'all.

 

[tsptalk]

Momentum is on the bulls' side but with yields popping back up this morning on the strong retail sales number, we could see some pressure on the Nasdaq before the day is done. If that happens will the other indices come down in sympathy or will it just be more rotation?

The dollar is down a bit, as are the High Yield Corporate Bonds, so there is a possible set up for some afternoon selling, or Monday selling. The dip buying FOMO people are lurking. Overbought or FOMO? Who will win in the coming days?

The small caps of the Russell 2000 are testing recent highs again. Will this finally breakout, or is another trip down to support next?

 

[tsptalk]

Early Monday action:

Stocks are looking for directions after a slow start and an attempt at a rebound.

The yield on the 10-year T-note gapped up to a new multi-month high before backing up again and looking to fill that gap. The F-flag is in play.

High Yield Corp. Bonds gapped down below the 200-day EMA after Friday's sell off. Possibly a concern here.

 

[tsptalk]

The early actions has the dollar down hard, and the 10-year yield back over 1.6%.

Stocks are up solidly in the opening hour, although the small caps of the Russell are flat and lagging for a 3rd day.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar, 10-year yield and HYG (High Yield Corp Bonds) are all down slightly to start the day, as stocks seem to be in some kind of a melt up phase as the indices race toward the early September highs.

DWCPF (S-fund) would be at a new closing high if it can close where it is now, but with the large open gap below, a double top pullback is possible. Can it finally break out or is the top of the long trading range going to hold yet again?

 

[Bullitt]

Nasdaq getting hit today. Utilities up big. Rising electricity costs?

 

[tsptalk]

I see the 10-year hit 1.65% earlier today, before dipping back a bit - could be spooking tech.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up again - the 10-year is hitting 1.68% and moving above the F-flag, which usually break down.

The VIX is up some this morning - trying to fund support at the bottom of the comfort zone between 15 and 18. It did break below the rising support line off the July lows this week.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are pretty flat this morning. The dollar is down again and again flirting with the 50-day EMA.

Silver and gold gapped way up this morning, but they are settling down some, filling in those gaps already.

The Transports can't go up fast enough. What are we missing? Perhaps all of the 3rd quarter economic slow down data is nothing more rearview mirror news now?

The High Yield Corp. bonds are down again and trying to fill in an open gap, but the weakness is suggesting possible trouble in the credit market. Odd action for a big rally in stocks. Both bull flags and bear flags have been breaking down on this chart, and it is back below the 50-day average.

 

[tsptalk]

stockschart.com is down right now so I don't have any charts. But the 10-year yield is down this morning, and the dollar is up.

We head into a heavy earnings week with stocks up, and small caps leading. The Dow is mostly flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Stockcharts is back up so...

The dollar is up filling in that very small open gap from the prior Monday. There is one more open gap above, and a bunch below support.

The 10-year yield is down today after testing the top of the F-flag on Friday.

It's not always easy to trust the Monday morning moves, but stocks seem to like the combination today.

The S-fund is making new high but also testing the top of its channel today...

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer Confidence and new home sales both topped expectations, helping push the already excited stocks market indices higher again.

The melt up seems to be here and the question is whether to chase if you're out, take profits if you're in, or just ride the wave.

The dollar and yields are both up slightly with the dollar hanging around that old gap area. The 10-year fell early but seemed to bounce back after the 10 AM ET economic reports mentioned above.

Oil is up again and over $84/ barrel, and it is kind of interesting that this isn't more of a drag on the stock market considering it was about $47 a barrel to start the year.