tsptalk's Market Talk

The bond market and some financial institutions are closed today, and being a semi-holiday for the market, it's not easy to trust the action.

The dollar is up and making new highs. The Dow is down while small caps are leading with the Russell getting back about 50-60% of yesterday's losses. Tomorrow, or Monday may be a better indication of what the market wants to do.
 
The bond market and some financial institutions are closed today, and being a semi-holiday for the market, it's not easy to trust the action.

The dollar is up and making new highs. The Dow is down while small caps are leading with the Russell getting back about 50-60% of yesterday's losses. Tomorrow, or Monday may be a better indication of what the market wants to do.

Would really like to see those gaps below on a lot of the charts get filled in before I expose any more cash to the market. How long typically do you have to wait for that many gaps to get filled in? Weeks, months? We are about a month out now since the first gap showed up.
 
They usually get filled fairly quickly, but when they don't it's just a waiting game and unfortunately could take months.

If we get a continued pullback, those will certainly be potential targets, but no guarantees.
 
Yesterday was a holiday for bonds so this is a post holiday trading day for TNX. You can see that we did get a pre-holiday rally before Columbus Day in Oct, and a reversal after. A rally before veteran's Day and starting today with a small drop in yields (bond prices up.)

111221c.gif


The dollar is pausing at the upper resistance line of its channel.


The S&P 500 is having a solid morning, but it needs to do more in order to avoid what could be a small bear flag.

111221d.gif
 
Early action:

A slow but positive start to the new week, but no follow through to the open yet. Small caps are lagging a bit. The dollar is up, but just slightly. Yields are up again and if this starts to accelerate we could see tech stocks start to get a little cranky.

111521b.gif


Is that a small bear flag forming on the Russell 2000?
 
Is that a small bear flag forming on the Russell 2000?

Coming out of a strong bull run, I wouldn't put much stock in that bear flag. I like them more when they continue a trend, bull flags in bull runs, bear flags in bear runs, etc. Just my opinion.
 
I agree, betting against this market hasn't gotten anyone anywhere this year, except for maybe a trade in September. But coincidentally the TNX chart in that last post had a similar sized bear flag coming off the highs that did break down. It was a small bear flag, and the breakdown wasn't huge, but proportionate.

111521c.gif
 
Early action:

The dollar keeps plowing higher while the yield on the 10-year Treasury pulls back a bit from its recent breakout.

111621a.gif



The strength in the dollar is holding the I-fund back, and this morning there's a mini breakdown from a small bear flag.

111621b.gif



Same for the Russell 2000 small caps index (IWM), although we're not quite seeing that yet in the S-fund index dwcpf.

111621c.gif
 
Early action: Stocks are down. Small caps are lagging.

10-year yield: Flat. Dollar: Flat. It's kind of amazing how strong the dollar has been considering the next debt ceiling deadline is two weeks away and I haven't heard anything encouraging in that area yet. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen estimates that US government will run out of money on December 15 if no deal is made. :doh:

111721a.gif
 
A sluggish jobless claims number has yields and the dollar slipping lower today. A slow start for stocks but they have been trying to battle back in the first couple of hours of trading. Big tech is leading again.

The likelihood of an Evergrande default has also put a damper on global markets.

111821a.gif
 
Early action:

Yields getting hit - bonds up, but BND is at the top of that head and shoulders patterned I've been talking about in the daily commentary.

The dollar is up and the passing of the spending bill in the House may have something to do with that, although the recent trend has been up.

111921a.gif



Small caps are lagging again and the S-fund's DWCPF index is trying to hold onto that old resistance line as support.

111921b.gif



The S&P is playing with the recent highs. Looks poised for a breakout -- or a double top pullback. Your call. :D
 
Yields and the dollar are popping higher in early action on Monday. That is sending bonds down so that head and shoulders pattern is playing out on BND.

112221a.gif


The large caps are rallying while small caps lag. Interestingly, the S&P 500 is up almost 1% and the Russell 2000 Index is also up 1%, but the DWCPF broader small / mid cap index is flat for some reason. The I-fund is also lagging because of the strength in the dollar and covid cases in Europe.

112221b.gif
 
I just heard that today's commentary wasn't uploaded. Sorry. :pat:

https://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

-------------------------

Early action:

Another positive open for stocks goes south in a hurry. The small caps are closing in on the open gap we've watched for the last month, while Monday's negative reversal plays out with some weakness. Is it going to be a Turnaround Tuesday and positive holiday bias, or have the bears gotten serious?

112321c.gif



Yields are up again and the dollar is relatively flat.

112321b.gif

112321d.gif
 
The plethora of economic reports have been coming in today, and the dollar is up again. The yield on the 10-year rallied early, but as if often the case, we see a double top pullback has since ensued and it is now down slightly.

112421a.gif



Stocks are mixed but still struggling on one of the most bullish days of the year historically -- pre Thanksgiving Day.
 
Ugh! Today was supposed to be a cake walk for the bulls. Not to be.

Yields are tanking, the dollar is finally down and broke its uptrend.

112621b.gif



Stocks are getting clobbered with the S&P 500 aiming towards its 50-day EMA, while the DWCPF (S-fund) filled its gap and it testing the moving average that has been holding all year.

112621c.gif
 
Early action:

The 10-year yield and dollar are up making an attempt to fill Friday's overhead gaps.

112921a.gif



Stocks opened higher but fading a bit after the initial gains of over 1% in many indices. Perhaps it is just filling in the morning gap, but obviously where it closes is more important. The S-fund has been down for weeks and trying to find support near that moving average that has held all year.

112921b.gif
 
Early action:

The yield on the 10-year moved sharply lower on Tuesday after another wave of Omicron scares. The chart did fill an open gap that had been partially filled a few weeks ago, and it is also testing the 200-day EMA.

113021b.gif


The dollar is down for a second day and heading toward some significant support, but it also opened two new gaps along the way.


A test of the lows seems to be in progress for the stock indices. The question of course is whether the prior lows hold. We had seen three "V" bottoms at the orange moving average over the summer, but more of a consolidating low in October. This tells us that there is buying interest at this level, so there is a battle going on in the 2200 - 2240 area right now in the S fund.

113021c.gif
 
Back
Top