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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
Early action: Yields are falling and the 10-year is testing the bottom of the F-flag.
The dollar is giving up Tuesday's gains.
The S&P 500 is flat showing some decent resilience considering yesterday's negative reversal day, and how extended it is.
The small caps are lagging this morning as the big old open gap may be finally drawing some attention.
The dollar is giving up Tuesday's gains.
The S&P 500 is flat showing some decent resilience considering yesterday's negative reversal day, and how extended it is.
The small caps are lagging this morning as the big old open gap may be finally drawing some attention.
Today felt like a lot of end of the month noise because the gains didn't make a whole lot of sense with Apple and Amazon getting hit, and the NYSE share volume was about 2 to 1 in favor of declining volume over advancing, yet all the indices were solidly green - although the Russell was down less than a point.
The first trading day of the month can also be "noisy" and I suspect next week could be a big week for stocks - although I claim ignorance on the direction of that move. The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday and seasonality is on the bulls' side, but new month, new direction is also a possibility. However, sometimes that change in direction doesn't start on the first, but rather on the 2nd or 3rd.
Clear as mud? We'll see.
The first trading day of the month can also be "noisy" and I suspect next week could be a big week for stocks - although I claim ignorance on the direction of that move. The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday and seasonality is on the bulls' side, but new month, new direction is also a possibility. However, sometimes that change in direction doesn't start on the first, but rather on the 2nd or 3rd.
Clear as mud? We'll see.
Yields up a bit this morning, while the dollar is dipping, Small caps are ripping, while the S&P is slipping off the morning highs.
First trading day in November may turn out to be a smoke screen but the divergence in the indices makes it questionable about what is really happening.
Smalls caps are near recent 2021 resistance again, which has failed repeatedly, but November / December have been good for small caps over the years, and this could be the breakout month? Either that or it's about to rollover again, so place your bets.
A pullback to 4550 would be healthy for the S&P, but anything lower could mean a short-term peak is in.
Russell 2000
First trading day in November may turn out to be a smoke screen but the divergence in the indices makes it questionable about what is really happening.
Smalls caps are near recent 2021 resistance again, which has failed repeatedly, but November / December have been good for small caps over the years, and this could be the breakout month? Either that or it's about to rollover again, so place your bets.
A pullback to 4550 would be healthy for the S&P, but anything lower could mean a short-term peak is in.
Russell 2000
Early action has the dollar up and yields down. Small caps are lagging a bit after Monday's huge day.
The 10-year may have started to break down from that small bear flag.
The Transports are on fire. 5 months of losses have been recovered in one. Very unusual action.
The 10-year may have started to break down from that small bear flag.
The Transports are on fire. 5 months of losses have been recovered in one. Very unusual action.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Dow transports up over 12% on the day? What is happening?!
Early action has bonds moving lower / 10-year yield is up. The dollar is up again slightly, but the big bull flag on UUP is interesting and suggests the Fed's action could produce an upside breakout, which would make sense if they start tapering and talk rate hikes.
The Transports are down 2% after yesterday rally of nearly 7%.
Small caps are doing very well again, but up again more resistance. This has breakout written all over it but perhaps some consolidation may be needed at some point here at the resistance line?
The Transports are down 2% after yesterday rally of nearly 7%.
Small caps are doing very well again, but up again more resistance. This has breakout written all over it but perhaps some consolidation may be needed at some point here at the resistance line?
The dollar is breaking above that bull flag. I didn't know why a bull flag was forming, but there it is, breaking out, and the Fed's apathy toward raising rates may be the reason.
Same for the 10-year. Yields are falling, something that generally happens when the economy is weakening, but again, the Fed not talking raising rates is telling bond investors that they can be bought (bonds) and yields look to be on the verge of breaking below H&S pattern.
Not sure what's happening with the High Yield Corporate Bonds today, but I believe this is dividend related because the a similar move happened last year at this time.
Same for the 10-year. Yields are falling, something that generally happens when the economy is weakening, but again, the Fed not talking raising rates is telling bond investors that they can be bought (bonds) and yields look to be on the verge of breaking below H&S pattern.
Not sure what's happening with the High Yield Corporate Bonds today, but I believe this is dividend related because the a similar move happened last year at this time.
Early action - the dollar appears to be breaking down from its bull flag breakout.
The 10-year yield is up, bouncing off the 100-day EMA, but leaving the 1.4% gap below still open.
Stocks are up but continue to look overly extended.
High Yield Corp bonds are pulling back after hitting a double top. That was quite a run over the last 5 days.
The 10-year yield is up, bouncing off the 100-day EMA, but leaving the 1.4% gap below still open.
Stocks are up but continue to look overly extended.
High Yield Corp bonds are pulling back after hitting a double top. That was quite a run over the last 5 days.
Bullitt
Well-known member
I think the anomalous advance in the SPX can all be explained by the TNX chart. Hedge funds, etc. made huge levered bets against bonds as a "straight-forward trade for 2021-2022" and were forced to unwind. The move wasn't that big in TNX, but massive leverage rarely works out, it's just that when it does, you get carried off the field like Michael Burry or John Paulson.
I don't understand all the hate for bonds. People been calling for the end of it's secular bull run since 2008 and have been wrong ever since. Global markets are trapped into lower rates, not just the US. Rates can't double from here without causing global hurt. Betting on higher rates has been nothing but a losing trade, the trend remains down.
I don't understand all the hate for bonds. People been calling for the end of it's secular bull run since 2008 and have been wrong ever since. Global markets are trapped into lower rates, not just the US. Rates can't double from here without causing global hurt. Betting on higher rates has been nothing but a losing trade, the trend remains down.
I hope you didn't blink because you would have missed it. Stocks were down sharply after the bell but they are already bouncing back. It's a long day and anything can happen, but we're getting a feel for how ferocious the dip buying is.
Yields are falling again (why?) and the dollar is flat after initially falling on the PPI report.
The PPI (Producer Prices) report was hot but inline with estimates.
Yields are falling again (why?) and the dollar is flat after initially falling on the PPI report.
The PPI (Producer Prices) report was hot but inline with estimates.
The Consumer price report came in much higher than expected raising inflation concerns. Yields are popping higher on the data, and the head and shoulders pattern is playing out very typically. A test of the neckline would generally fail, but the fact that the open gap near the H&S downside target was filled is basically completing the pattern, so anything can happen now.
The dollar is also up sharply, putting pressure on stocks, but because metals tend to do well in inflationary environment, gold and silver are breaking out to the upside despite the strength in the dollar.
The dollar is also up sharply, putting pressure on stocks, but because metals tend to do well in inflationary environment, gold and silver are breaking out to the upside despite the strength in the dollar.
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