tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Is this a contrarian buy signal, or a warning for caution?


Investors believe it’s time to get very conservative in the stock market, CNBC survey shows

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/inv...ve-in-the-stock-market-cnbc-survey-shows.html

 

[tsptalk]

FedEx is weighing heavily on the transports today, which are not participating in today's rally.

 

[tsptalk]

The yield on the 10 year is testing the upper limits of its recent range.

The dollar filled that gap yesterday, then flipped over . This is what I though could happen on the S&P and DWCPF charts. But no...

The stock indices blasted right through the tough resistance this morning.

 

[Bullitt]

It's hard to be bullish when the transports have made new lows.

Sentiment is leaning bullish though and with this big jump today it seems many were caught on the wrong side of things (2x inverse, cash) trying to cover or get back in. A close above the 50 DMA will switch many systems back to a buy from sell.

 

[tsptalk]

Spiking yields are spooking the big tech stocks as the Nasdaq turns down sharply. Interestingly, small caps are benefiting for some reason as investors don't seem to want to sell everything.

The dollar is also up making the rally in small caps that much more impressive this morning. We'll see if that can hold if pressure continues on Naz and S&P.

 

[Bullitt]

Black candle though in TNX and those almost always are a prequel to a turn lower.

 

[tsptalk]

It hasn't been in an uptrend in a while, so for now I will assume that the black candle was the result of trying to fill Monday morning's open gap. The support test will come on a pullback to the 1.38% area, which would fill in Friday's gap too. But yeah, those spinning tops can mean a short term reversal.

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-Yr Yield is trading at 1.539% right now so stocks may get cranky this morning.

This chart says 1.531% and may be delayed a bit.

 

[tsptalk]

Along with yields, the dollar is popping as well. It broke out to new highs temporarily but has been backing off a bit. This is putting pressure on prices everywhere.

 

[Bullitt]

With end of quarter coming up, "window dressing" should be happening. That's when funds buy certain stocks so it looks good to clients on their quarterly report. With tech getting hit yesterday, many funds will be buying that sector.

Still not thrilled about transports, but the break below 14,255 or so could be shaping up to be a bear trap.

 

[tsptalk]

There goes the dollar again, yet stocks and bonds (yields down) are holding up well -- so far. Long way to go today and the bears have been hungry.

There's still an overhead open gap above and the 100-day EMA below that should be the key pivot points in the coming days.

 

[tsptalk]

Still not thrilled about transports, but the break below 14,255 or so could be shaping up to be a bear trap.

The Transports weren't hit as hard as the other indices yesterday, but it's not bouncing yet today either. So yeah, not a great sign there.

 

[Bullitt]

In UUP, I see a one year double bottom on the weekly and a two month double bottom on the daily. Now if I can only figure out what that means for equities and bonds.

 

[tsptalk]

Not much conviction either way yet today. The dip buyers are there but scarce. The bears are a round but no teeth. Stalemate, but edge to the bulls (with 30 minutes left) for holding the 100-day average for a second time.

 

[evilanne]

[FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]"[/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Be [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Fearful [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]When [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Others [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Are [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Greedy[/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova] and [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Greedy[/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]When [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Others [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Are [/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]Fearful[/FONT][FONT=DDG_ProximaNova]" ― Warren Buffett

[/FONT]

 

[tsptalk]

A pullback in the dollar and yields giving stocks some stability this morning, although there is a good battle going on this between the bulls and bears.

 

[tsptalk]

Final Q3 window dressing going on.

 

[Bullitt]

Final Q3 window dressing going on.

Or Q3 insurance.

A trader just established a massive hedging position via options to protect a portfolio of stocks in the event that the S&P 500’s losses snowball toward 20% during the fourth quarter.

Behind the wager was likely a belief that the S&P 500’s upside would be capped at 4,505, or a 3% gain from the index’s Wednesday close of 4,359, while the downside could be a drop of as much as 20%.

The position’s maximum value could be worth $2.9 billion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/giant-s-p-500-options-trade-placed-to-guard-against-20-swoon

No window dressing going on in any of my individual holdings today. Though many were up big yesterday, they're mostly getting slammed today.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are soft today, and bitcoin is blasting off perhaps suggesting that investors may be ready for "risk on" again in October after the September weakness?

 

[tsptalk]

Yields up, dollar down.

The move higher in the 10-year yield nearly filled a small gap from Friday. The dollar filled a large gap (blue) but opened yet another. All of the red gaps are open so there is a lot of room for it to move lower to fill gaps in the coming days.