tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Early action: Yields down, the dollar is down but well off its lows already.

Stocks climb back from negative futures. Smalls caps trying to fill overhead gap, but will that act as resistance with the other open gaps still below?

 

[retread]

What happened at 1:15 pm Eastern time today? C/S/I all dropped appreciably from their morning highs.

 

[tsptalk]

Typical downtrend action - sell the rallies. Not that we'll be crashing, but it looks like a small downtrend.

Early action: The dollar is flat, yields are up. Small caps are lagging.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Yields are down, dollar is up slightly, stocks mixed but well off their highs. Small caps fill first gap.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks gapped up after a better than expected CPI report, but the gains aren't holding 30 minutes into the trading day.

The dollar and yields are falling, with the dollar trying to find support at a moving average.

The S-fund is trying to hang onto that 50-day average...

View attachment 50943

 

[tsptalk]

A lot of volatility this morning as the indices hover around break even and alternate between being up and down.

Apple is clinging to that 50 day EMA and the support line, and whichever way it breaks, the entire market may follow.

The dollar is down, yields are up. The Nasdaq is lagging. Oil is flying, up $2.40.

 

[tsptalk]

Everything seems to have held support today, but the S&P 500 will have to take out its 20-day average to keep the bounce going. That is something that it has had no problem doing in prior pullbacks. Could make the difference.

 

[Bullitt]

the S&P 500 will have to take out its 20-day average to keep the bounce going.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is rallying sharply putting pressure on almost everything.

The small caps are back below the 50-day EMA, so no follow through yet to Wednesday's rally.

Yields are up (bonds and the F-fund down) but the 100-day average has been stubborn in recent weeks..

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year is popping above resistance, and the dollar is up big again helping keeping pressure on prices. The small caps chart looks quite intriguing, but this action in yields and the dollar could be putting pressure on the Fed again to raise rates if it continues. That would not go over well. And again, the seasonality chart looks really bad for next week, but since everybody knows that, maybe we should expect the opposite? Just thinking out loud.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 opened with a gap below the 50-day EMA this morning. Another average is holding now, similar to March, but it's early. Sometimes the first push against a support line holds, brings in buyers, but fails on the next attempt, so be careful trying to pick a low too soon. You could get lucky, but it's rarely easy.

Two things the market does after a major sell off to frustrate traders... it goes back up too quickly, or rallies fail and new lows continue to be made... so basically everything.

The dollar is on the move again, staring to fill in the overhead gap.

 

[tsptalk]

A six month low for the Transports this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

S-fund gaps on the downside are filled (blue), and one new one opened overhead (red.) You can see the support line rising and getting close, but the 200-day EMA, if in play, is still way down below the current level.

 

[rangerray]

The S&P 500 opened with a gap below the 50-day EMA this morning. Another average is holding now, similar to March, but it's early. Sometimes the first push against a support line holds, brings in buyers, but fails on the next attempt, so be careful trying to pick a low too soon. You could get lucky, but it's rarely easy.

Too late. I’ve done done it.



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[mmk119]

I took the leap also. hopefully not too soon. What happened with Evergrande is in conjunction with an expectation of a pullback, Fed meeting, fiscal year, et. al. Evergrande still has two weeks of running capital; the government isn't going to default or shutdown; and the Fed is going to protect its investments. So, i'm feeling this is not the big pullback - that is coming later this year or early next - at least that's how i'm investing. so, sticky pants deployed and depends on order.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is down and yields are up to start this trading day.

Stocks are bouncing toward the large open gaps from Monday morning, which are a magnet, but all of it is below the 50-day EMA so 4425 will be obvious roadblock for any relief rally. The "V" bottom is still possible, but we'll have to see if the bears are selling this morning strength. So far the y are, but it's early so it's tough to declare a victor until the close today.

 

[rangerray]

I took the leap also. hopefully not too soon. What happened with Evergrande is in conjunction with an expectation of a pullback, Fed meeting, fiscal year, et. al. Evergrande still has two weeks of running capital; the government isn't going to default or shutdown; and the Fed is going to protect its investments. So, i'm feeling this is not the big pullback - that is coming later this year or early next - at least that's how i'm investing. so, sticky pants deployed and depends on order.

I like the way you're thinking!!!

 

[mmk119]

Thank you rangerray. We'll see if we made the right decision.
i'd really like to get info from the fed today, along with this week's and next weeks FAAIM results to get a better look ahead.
who said "waiting is the hardest part"... Captain obvious? ha ha ha

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks rally in front of FOMC policy statement this afternoon. Typical action, but can it hold if there is a tapering announced - and the technical picture is improving, but resistance is close.

The S&P and small caps charts are racing to fill those open gaps. Both are below the 50-day EMA, which is also near the tops of those gaps, so that will be important resistance.

The dollar is bouncing back while yields are flat.