tsptalk's Market Talk

[Bullitt]

RE: VIX; start of a new week. Traders are more likely to pay up for options on a Monday than Friday. Why pay a premium when you have weekend risk to contend with?

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 has given up Monday's gains in early trading today. Will this being another 3 hour dip that gets bought?

Small caps (S-fund) is down retesting that 50-dy EMA again, which held last Thursday after Wednesday's break above it.

The dollar is down but hanging around support, and the yield on the 10-year is also down again, perhaps just going to fill in that open gap?

 

[tsptalk]

Stock open mixed and seem to be all over the map. The Nasdaq was down near the open but is now sporting a triple digit gain. The Russell 200 lost an early 1% gain already, but don't blink. :blink:

Yields and the dollar are up in early trading.

 

[exnavyew]

I thought the stock market was the 'holy grail' of legal gambling in America. :laugh:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-...l-of-legal-gambling-in-america-153603322.html

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar gapped lower this morning, falling below the 200-day EMA. Why? Because I said it would likely hold because of that head and shoulders pattern. :suspicious:

50-day EMA being tested now.

10-year yields is up slightly this morning, but looks vulnerable below resistance and the 200-day EMA. Which means it will likely go higher (see above )

 

[tsptalk]

10-year yields is down this morning. The dollar is up (filling an open gap).

August seasonality chart:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

 

[tsptalk]

Yields down again, and the dollar is back below its 50-day EMA.

Small caps are up big this morning, but notice that the direction of the first day of a new month does not usually hold in the following days...

 

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is flirting with trouble as the "will it or won't it hold" 50-day EMA is being tested now.

Meanwhile yields are down again lifting the F-fund. And the dollar is up and trying to continue to hold the 50-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

Suspicious. Everything opened lower and moved higher immediately. Yields, the dollar, small caps, etc.

So far the July 20 low is holding on the 10-year.

Oil as well - down shapely at the open, coming right back - even with the dollar moving higher. :33:

 

[tsptalk]

10-year yield is up modestly to 1.204%. The dollar is down slightly and dipping back below the 200-day EMA.

The S-fund has already gotten back Wednesday's losses already this morning.

Transports are truing to recover some of yesterday's big losses.

The VIX is down and holding below 18 for a second day.

Of course we know how quickly things can change lately. If you don't like what you're seeing in the market, just wait an hour.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are popping after the strong jobs report. Gold is down, oil flipped back over from an overnight rally.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action: Yields down, the dollar is flat, gold getting crushed.

Nasdaq is up, most other indices down. Transports off 1.2%.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action: Stocks flat to mostly higher. Transports are up big so that back and forth continues.

10-year yield is up and above the 200-day EMA. The dollar is also up challenging the recent highs.

Oil is bouncing back but the USO is testing its 50-day EMA from below.

And the High Yield Corp. Bond ETF HYG is trying to hold onto its 50-day EMA after a recent pullback.

 

[tsptalk]

10-year Yield is up but possibly stalling at the 50-day EMA.

The dollar is pulling back after possible double top.

HYG is rebounding from Tuesday's sell off and whether it can get back above the 50-day EMA today may be important for stocks. Lower high seems to be in.

 

[tsptalk]

A higher than expected PPI report is pushing yields and the dollar higher to start the day. Jobless claims came inline with estimates.

Small caps are lagging so far today, but the way they've whipped around intraday lately, there's no telling where they'll close.

 

[tsptalk]

10-year yield is down - back below the 44 and 200 days averages. The dollar looks like it wants to pullback and attempt to fill tat open gap.

Small caps are doing their daily morning face plant, but the buyers have been stepping up at about 11:00 - 12:00 every day. A different result today could be a tell, otherwise, more of the same.

 

[retread]

There's a gap to the south on TNX (and a corresponding gap to the north on BND F Fund) that it's trying to get to and fill. I almost went to 100% F today but did not because it appeared to be getting up to that gap in a hurry. Glad I didn't since F went up .40 today and that's a big move for F. Once it fills that gap in BND it might come back down. So patiently waiting for a drop in C or S to get back in.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action.

The gap is filled so now the test begins for the F-fund, but it also got back above that resistance line.

10-year yield is back below 1.25%. The dollar is up slightly.

The small caps are lagging and flirting with that 50-day average again. Many early pushed below ended up closing above it. We'll see.

Oil is down about $2.60 / barrel.

 

[tsptalk]

Here's today's 10-year and dollar deal. 10-year held again at the open gap bottom.

The S and I-finds are down about 0.9% each, and lagging today. The double top pullback continues in the EFA.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps leading this morning, but don't blink. It could be a good test of the bear's fortitude. We'll see if the bulls buy this recent dip or if the bears sell this morning's rally in DWCPF (S-fund).

Yields up filling a small gap. The dollar is up testing resistance.