tsptalk's Market Talk

Any thoughts on the put/call ratio? Was just going through some charts and it stood out. Biggest spike since the election.

These are 10 day averages but yeah, they're moving in the right direction to get to extreme.

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Unlike previous short 2-4% pullbacks, this has nothing to do with Yields this time. Seems to be the 140% rise in Covid Cases/30% rise in deaths nationwide past 2 weeks...Delta Variant is threatening the entire "Re-opening Trade".
At some point, if yields continue to slowly slide down, that could bring the bottom a little quicker, IMHO.
 
Yeah, could be tied together - yields falling because of COVID cases.

10-year down to 1.15% this morning. The dollar is up sharply again, possibly because of the trouble in Europe?

The S&P is getting a bounce (dead cat?) off the 50-day EMA - can the pattern repeat? The Russell is up testing the Monday morning gap again. Big day, close is key.

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Turnaround Tuesday? Shhh! :shhh:
 
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Small caps booming for 2nd day, and now above the 50-day EMA and the neckline of the head and shoulders. I'm still a little worried about the retest possibility as I talked about in today's commentary, so it has to hold these gains into the close. So far so good, but it's a long day and those MonkeyPox aren't going anywhere :D

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Yields are popping again, and I was suspecting that could be the low, but let's see what it does once it fills that open gap and deals with the 200-day EMA.

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The dollar opened on the south side of that channel / rising wedge. 200-day EMA may come into play if the bottom of the wedge holds as resistance now.

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Yes, the tail can fill the gap. The candlestick can race up (or down) to fill a gap, then back off, and that creates the tail and fills the gap.

The gap on the 10-year yield is a decent example, which is what I assume you were referring to.

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The small caps of the Russell 2000 (IWM) are getting a smack-down today, while the S-fund small caps (DWCPF) are hanging in there a lot better - trying to hold onto that 50-day EMA it broke back above yesterday.

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A mini double top being tested today. It may not break out today based on prior similar situations. Earnings season can trigger breakouts - or fake outs!

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A mini double top being tested today. It may not break out today based on prior similar situations. Earnings season can trigger breakouts - or fake outs!

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I’m seeing a great setup for what I think will be new highs next week. I really think we’re going to get some great earnings reports next week that boost a lot of stocks broadly. Hang in there!


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I can't recall another year where the indices were so divided. The Russell 2000 is still down today, although off the lows, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq race to new highs.

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The advance / decline volume is very negative again today despite the big gains in the shiny indices.

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I can't recall another year where the indices were so divided….

The advance / decline volume is very negative again today despite the big gains in the shiny indices.

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You know, I’m thinking hard about why that is- more declining shares than advancers- and what I come up with is only this:

We are into good earnings reports, AND the first time since the March/April crash last year, that we are now more than a year since the worst crashes- and rebounds began.

What I am doing personally, is matching some long term losers with gainers, and selling the losers to reposition the money, and looking for the stronger forward looking stocks.

Sold Nintendo (slight loss) and bought VISA. (Expecting better than expected earnings next week). It’s all just part of the normal churn, except it means the indexes could diverge.
C is solidly positioned to be ok, I think.




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Stocks mixed to start the week with small caps leading. The dollar is down. Yields are down, and the VIX is up 8% for some reason.

Despite the dollar being lower, oil is down, gold is down, the I-fund is down slightly, and the Transports are down.

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