tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The early set up from the yawners side:

The dollar gapped up again. Yields down again. The VIX spiked quickly but started to settle down already.

 

[nasa1974]

Maybe it will be a good day and we can finish the week off on a positive note.

 

[Bullitt]

The whole quad witching thing isn't helping. There was a slight correction in March when it most recently happened.

 

[tsptalk]

Advance decline volume is pretty lopsided early on the NYSE...

 

[Khotso]

The inflation trade is deflating.

Huh? This stuff gets really confusing. Hard to know which way is up anymore.

 

[tsptalk]

Dollar down, yields and stocks up to start the day.

 

[tsptalk]

Early pulse: Dollar up, 10-year Yield is flat, stocks mixed.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is down for a 3rd straight day, and of course that means prices can rise easier. The open gap is trying to get filled, but will the bottom of that gap act as support?

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up slightly this morning, and stocks are up, but coming off their highs.

Is this backing off from the top of the range or is a breakout inevitable?

 

[Bullitt]

Nasdaq being carried higher by FB and MSFT. Breadth is looking strongly bullish on all exchanges intraday but I wouldn't consider this a broad rally.

Transports still lagging though, down 6% from recent highs.

 

[tsptalk]

It's all about the Fed. The weaker than expected jobless claims this morning is interpreted as a shield against rate hikes. The market is betting on, hoping for, signs of an economic slowdown, or at least signs that it's not running too hot.

But it's been this way for years so, it may not be a healthy way to look at it, but it's been working. But new highs based on poor weak?

 

[tsptalk]

New highs for the credit market (HYG). The dollar is down, yields are up.

The dollar is in a bull flag trying to fill an open gap.

Yields are in a bearish looking flag / pennant.

HYG is making new highs but there is rising resistance overhead.

 

[tsptalk]

Big divergences to start the new week. Small caps flipped over and are down after opening higher, while tech and the Nasdaq are moving higher.

Bonds and the dollar are up. Yields down. Oil is down, gold up. Bitcoin up.

 

[tsptalk]

It may be a little early to say, but the I fund may be creating a bear flag...

The bull flag on the dollar won't help either...

 

[Bullitt]

It's all about the Fed. But it's been this way for years so, it may not be a healthy way to look at it, but it's been working.

Yeah, pretty much. Everyone trying to dissect the words of the new fed chair, but he doesn't want to make the same mistakes Bernanke made in 2013 by triggering the "taper tantrum", so he's just kind of going with the flow right now. Seasonality for July is usually pretty positive. Hoping for a turbulence free month, at least until next fed meeting on July 27.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks mixed again with the Nasdaq and Transports down while most other indices are up. The dollar is back above the 200-day EMA. Yields were up early but fading off the highs.

Oil and natural gas is up, gold and silver are tumbling.

 

[tsptalk]

Treasury Yields Signal Investors’ Waning Economic Exuberance

Yield on 10-year note fell roughly a quarter-percentage point in second quarter as traders scaled back expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus

The recent drop in U.S. Treasury yields reveals some investors’ doubts about how strong the economy will be in the coming years, even as inflation pushes to its highest level in more than a decade

https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasu...6s6494cpyrn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

This is a $pay site$ but it says it's my "free link" so I'm not sure if non-subscribers will be able to read it. The headline tells the story, however.


By the way, yields are down again this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Trouble in the I-fund with the dollar looking stronger.

 

[tsptalk]

Oil is currently hitting $76 a barrel. That sounds like a good sign for the economy as demand rises, but at what price does it start to become a problem for consumers and the market? at:

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are trying to fill yesterday's gap, but not much more...

The EFA / I-fund is not exactly bouncing off that 50-day EMA yet. Not a great sign.

The S-fund found some very clean support, but how much is it the July 1st pop?