tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Gap filled on the dollar although there are still a couple overhead. The blue boxes are filled gaps.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks up.

Bonds up.

The dollar is down giving back almost all of yesterday's gain.

Yields down.

Credit market (HYG) up but struggling below support.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting pivot point for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and the VIX are getting beaten down again, helping boost prices in most equities, commodities, and bonds.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are up nicely this morning The DWCPF (S-fund) is looking a little better than the IWM (Russell 2000), which is sagging a little in early afternoon trading. Both may need a solid close to say that the charts are improving.

 

[tsptalk]

10 year monthly chart of the dollar.

 

[tsptalk]

Lumber is down again this morning so the violent moves continues. The futures have been limit up or limit down, or close to it, almost every day for weeks.

It may be in the process of a lower high - which officially won't happen unless 1200 is taken out.

The reason this means something is that the bond market seems to be indicating that the economy has some cracks, and lumber may be the canary in the coal mine.

Bonds may have run too far so maybe that's a stretch. Let's see how the BND does at a test of the 200-day EMA. If that can break we may be seeing a bottoming action in bonds? Why would that be?

 

[FAAM]

THX for your charts, info, thoughts. IDK about lumber going down, maybe some over-reactions that took it high so now coming back to reality? I'm about to buy some timbers to build a fence to keep bunnies, deer and elk outta my garden - & would love to pay 5% to 15% less for that... for steel fencing too!

 

[tsptalk]

Russell 2000 is nearing one of the areas that has been a turning point. Another right shoulder in a H&S pattern - all still within the mothman?

 

[tsptalk]

Has this been a pre-holiday reversal for the dollar this week? Back down next week, or is this a break break of the downtrend?

 

[Bullitt]

I Fund (EFA) has been in a nice uptrend since March compared to S which has been range bound and flattened its 50 DMA. I Fund likes that weaker dollar.

 

[tsptalk]

US Market Wrap:

On Monday, US futures and European stocks fell as traders await fresh catalysts, with the key US employment data later this week set to provide further clues on the outlook for the US economy amid lingering inflation concerns.

Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, with trading hours curtailed due to the memorial day. The dollar weakened against a basket of peers. The euro grew after data showed Germany's inflation rate rose to the highest level since October 2018. Spain and Italy showed price pick-ups in May.

The utilities sector pulled the Stoxx Europe 600 index lower, with Spain's Endesa falling on speculation that the Spanish government is planning to curb windfall profits for power producers. The stock of Deutsche Bank AG fell after the Fed warned that its enforcement plans were insufficient.The UK markets were closed due to a holiday.
Oil rose as OPEC and its allies predicted that inventories will fall sharply this year if the group sticks to its strategy. Gold headed for the biggest monthly advance since July and most industrial metals gained.

Global stocks remain near all-time highs, boosted by the continuing economic rebound from the pandemic and stimulus injections. Concerns that price pressures could force an earlier-than-expected reduction in central bank support hasn't deterred the rally so far. However, investors are still wary of the danger, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report in the US could sway markets if it alters perception of the recovery's strength.

The offshore yuan weakened after China forced banks to hold more foreign currencies in reserve for the first time in more than a decade, its most significant step yet to rein in the soaring currency. Bitcoin has recovered from its Friday lows and is now trading around $36,500.

https://www.financialjuice.com/News/5957758/US-Market-Wrap.aspx

 

[tsptalk]

What to watch today: BY THE NUMBERS - CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/what-to-watch-today-dow-set-to-jump-on-the-first-day-of-june.html

 

[tsptalk]

That breakout didn't last long for the dollar. UUP is back below resistance and nearing recent lows.

 

[tsptalk]

A little roadblock for the S&P at the double top...

 

[tsptalk]

New high for the credit market, probably a good reason stocks are rallying, but up against possible resistance like many other charts we've watching.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is popping higher this morning putting pressure on many thing. Stocks and gold seem to be getting pretty hard.

 

[tsptalk]

The 20-day EMA successfully held on this morning's pullback in the S-fund. Will it flip back over later today or will this be a one day pullback?