tsptalk's Market Talk

[mmk119]

makes sense. i was wondering what was up with that move... Thanks TSP

 

[mmk119]

maybe the market knows where that Chinese rocket is going to crash?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So its back to bad news in on economy is void news for market. Don't want to improve too much too fast!
So maybe interest rates won't go up if we keep wearing our masks...you know fake out tge economy!

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is down this morning, but off the lows already. However, this will likely test that Feb. low soon.

The small caps (S-fund) are pulling back after the big positive reversal on Thursday and Friday. The 50-day EMA is getting tested and a close above it would be a bullish sign as it keeps the reversal intact.

The price of oil continues to get swatted back down from its double top area.

 

[tom4jean]

Sorry the auto tracker's working now. I think it was my. So I'm editing the comments and you can ignore this..

 

[tsptalk]

Our "mothman" on the Russell 2000 tested the bottom of its wings this morning and is trying to rebound. So far it has only filled the open gap created at today's open, but the support came at that interesting area.

The S-fund chart above isn't quite the same.

 

[tsptalk]

CPI beats estimates handily...


Inflation speeds up in April as consumer prices leap 4.2%, fastest since 2008

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html


Yields and the dollar move sharply higher.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[weatherweenie]

When is the last time the S&P had anything to do with the 200 day? Last March?

 

[tsptalk]

When is the last time the S&P had anything to do with the 200 day? Last March?

Long way down to there, huh?

Today feels a little heavy after the morning pop higher - especially in the Nasdaq. If we don't see another afternoon push to buy, there could be red in the indices by the close.

 

[bmneveu]

The 50 day MA has been the name in the game for awhile now. Not just on the S&P, its the most significant MA on probably the majority of the charts that I look at.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and yields drop helping stocks to add onto Thursday's rally.

 

[rangerray]

I think the CDC announcing the obvious gets credit here more than some would be willing to admit. Those masks on people (or not) are a huge symbol in the minds of people who may or may not be convinced that a recovery is well underway. That, and news that fuel is flowing again.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Dollar weakness; I sold out of an ADR stock which had been underperforming for years. Guess when it started to really ramp higher? Yep, after selling it when the $USD index was around 100 (held it for over 12 years).

Wonder if it will soon be time for the I Fund to shine again. Not only does everyone seems to hate it these days for the beloved "small caps". I've read some "pros" or at least people who make money peddling less knowledge in books than can be had here for free that I Fund is a bad investment because it has underperformed for so long.

No mention given to 2003-2007 when I fund was THE place to be as the $USD index collapsed down to 70.

 

[tsptalk]

Not much going on with the dollar or yields so far this morning. The market seems to just be digesting some of Thursday and Friday's run up.

The VIX is spiking 13%.

Lumber is down another 4.5% this morning, tacking onto last week's 4-day losing streak.

Small caps and the Nasdaq (growth) are lagging to start the day.

High Yield Corp. Bonds (HYG) are down, but nothing serious.

 

[Bullitt]

People talking about lumber prices in your parts? I was at two gatherings in the past week and the topic of lumber came up at both.

TSPtalk's been talking lumber prices for almost a year now.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/commodities/35016-lumber.html

 

[bleeck]

Sure glad I built the lake place 2 years ago. I did put the 30 x 40 shop on hold as the supplies came in at $25,000 just for material. That price was good for 3 days only!

 

[tsptalk]

S-fund is hitting the 50-day (and 20) EMA ths morning. I talked about this in today's commentary.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/5698-tsp-talk-bulls-take-break.html

The DWCPF (S-fund) ended the day with a small loss, which is a victory after the monster two-day rally. But it has the 50 and 20 day EMAs overhead and if they pose any trouble, the bears will make another move to push this lower. Pausing there on the way up for a day isn't a deal breaker, but rolling over before then would not be good.

 

[tsptalk]

It looks bad out there. I did notice this current formation off the top looks a lot like June of 2020. There was a totally different market situation going on then, but the 50-day EMA held on the retest. That doesn't always happen, but if the pattern continues? I can certainly show other examples where the 50 EMA did not hold so take it for what its worth.

 

[Bullitt]

May 13 opening gap filled.