tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Similar set up here. A close near the highs might break the pattern. So far so good, but still 2 hours left.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is really popping today. Watch out, I-fund. I'm not sure why small caps would be rallying with yields ticking up, the dollar up, oil down, and large caps struggling. I suppose it's just more rotating into the beaten down sectors?

 

[tsptalk]

Yields down. Dollar down. High yield Corp. bonds (credit) up. Risk appears to be on today.

It's the last day of the quarter, and tomorrow is the day before a holiday. Could be some irregularities.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up, but not as much as would expect given the jobs report. Also, HYG is backing off from a double top. Small caps are actually down this morning with the S&P and Naz soaring. Strange day.

 

[Bullitt]

Opening gap in S&P 500 today (from 4019) partially due to Friday holiday is of concern. S&P gapped open Thursday too (from 3972). When those get reined in is anyone's guess.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX is actually up 5% today. Head scratcher. :scratchchin:

 

[tsptalk]

Yields down, dollar down, credit market making new highs.

 

[tsptalk]

A slight change in complexion today with the HYG failed breakout and the dollar breaking its short-term downtrend.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar's flat, yields are up slightly, and the VIX is up about 6% to 17.60.

High Yield Corp. Bonds are still in double top mode...

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and bond yields are falling and the dollar is resting on its 50-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

So much for oil breaking DOWN from that bear flag.

 

[tsptalk]

The Russell 2000 is free falling from the opening gains (and pre market was even higher), yet the S-fund's DWCPF is hanging in there a little better with those mid-caps - this week's theme.

The indices were feeling a little heavy but almost had to rally on the retail sales number. Could see some profit talking as the day wears on.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure why yields would be down so much on a strong retail sales report. It seems like the opposite reaction that I would have expected? Kind of like oil yesterday - it broke up from a bear flag, and that's what BND (F-fund) is doing today, oddly on an inflationary report, which is sending gold higher - as you'd expect.

So I have to admit that I don't get the move in bonds today, but gold makes sense.

 

[tsptalk]

A couple of struggling charts.

DWCPF (S-fund) needs to hold here otherwise face 3 potential downside targets.

HTG failed breakout again.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Doller (UUP) is filling the gap. Will the top of the gap provide resistance and send it lower again?

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar resumes its downside plunge today. 10-Year Treasury yield is trying to bounce off the 50-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

This rally sure feels completely algo driven. I mean, what changed from yesterday's sell off that scared investors into worrying about tax hikes? The answer... stocks went higher this morning and the algos are jumping on it.

Watching the 15 minute chart of the Nasdaq futures since the market opened, there are 16 positive bars, 2 negative. No one is selling.

 

[retread]

This rally sure feels completely algo driven. I mean, what changed from yesterday's sell off that scared investors into worrying about tax hikes? The answer... stocks went higher this morning and the algos are jumping on it.

Watching the 15 minute chart of the Nasdaq futures since the market opened, there are 16 positive bars, 2 negative. No one is selling.

Or could it be the algo's were in charge yesterday and drove price down immediately, and I mean as soon as the tax hike reports came out, within a minute stocks started dropping. Humans can't react that quickly. Then today the humans stepped in with cooler heads and rational thinking and realized that the tax hike is just a proposal and and might even be reduced as the two sides banter back and forth. Thus markets back up. JMO

 

[tsptalk]

Russell 2000 small caps: Watch that 230 area of the "mothman" pattern for a possible peak. Actually, it's a head and shoulders pattern, but mothman is cooler.