tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

10-year Treasury Yield and the dollar are both down after jobs report.

The UUP dollar chart is opening and filling gaps almost every day lately.

 

[tsptalk]

The jobs report was a slight disappointment, but nothing like last month's and stocks did just fine after that one, so it looks like bad news is good news for the no rate hike front.

The S fund chart rallied early this morning to fill Thursday's small open gap, but it is starting to back down again.

 

[tsptalk]

Very mixed out there again with the S-fund leading to the upside, the EFA making another new high, while the Dow, S&P, Transports, and Nasdaq are all down this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Here's the 15-minute Russell 2000 futures chart showing that since about 3 AM Monday morning, this has gone virtually straight up (45-points) for about 9 hours.

... in contrast to the S&P 500 futures...

 

[Bullitt]

Forced buying of futures to offset AMC short sales? Saw a few articles this weekend about how AMC is the top weighted stock in the Russell 2000.

 

[bmneveu]

Makes sense. There are a ton of highly shorted stocks going through the roof today. It looks like a huge flight from short positions today.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields (10-year) are breaking below support and possibly trying to retest the May 7 low, the prior jobs report release date. Financial stocks are pulling back on this, but trying to hold at that 2-day EMA again.

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year yield is now back under 1.5%.

 

[tsptalk]

This doesn't look like a bunch of bears are wanting to sell at the top, but still no breakout so it's been a stalemate. You have to give the bulls credit for keeping the pressure on despite the obvious double top set up.

 

[tsptalk]

Stock futures initially moved down on the CPI report (0.5%), but then curiously then moved higher. I guess it was higher than expected, but not higher than the concerning levels?

Yields also rallied, which makes more sense.

 

[weatherweenie]

Wouldn't higher inflation be a cause for the potential raising of interest rates?

 

[tsptalk]

Yields also rallied, which makes more sense.

So the move that made sense, yields up, have now flipped over. Go figure.

The dollar opened higher and it has also rolled over.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is rallying and yields are ticking a bit higher this morning.

UUP is testing the 50-day EMA again. It looks like it is trying to stabilize but that 50 EMA has been tough resistance. Gold is down with this rally in the dollar.

With the May low now broken, we'll see if that low yield now acts as resistance.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is down slightly and leaning on that May high again.

Meanwhile the Equal Weight S&P Index (same 500 stocks) is down a little more, and it has still not reached its May high yet.

 

[tsptalk]

Looking over the precipice again...

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are up early on Tuesday. The dollar however, is running into its 50-day EMA again.

Everyone's very concerned about inflation but these three charts aren't sounding any alarms yet.

Gold found some support at its 50-day EMA, but broke below its rising support line, which may try to act as resistance.

 

[tsptalk]

Other than the small caps struggling, all is pretty quiet before today's key Fed meeting.

The large tech stock in the Nasdaq 100 are doing well early this morning.

The S&P is flat

The dollar is up slightly

Yields are down slightly

The Transports are flipping back aver again and continue to live dangerously on the 50-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar's popping, and yields are dropping. Stocks mixed in early trading.

 

[tsptalk]

The rally in the dollar is tagging the I-fund today...

And gold...

 

[Bullitt]

The inflation trade is deflating.