tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Yields are slipping, the dollar is rallying and the dip buyers are buying the gap down open in the indices.

Most of the gaps have come back to get filled already so it could get a little tougher for the bulls here. Closing near the highs today would be a good short-term sign. A failure at the filled gaps could mean more downside to come.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks up big. Yields up. Dollar flat. Gold down. Oil down. Bitcoin up.

As we get into the late stages of August, here's a reminder of some seasonal monthly average returns going back to January of 1985:

* I don't guarantee the accuracy. This is just me throwing together a spreadsheet using historical data from Yahoo Finance

 

[tsptalk]

Early thoughts...

The S-fund is back up to its 50-day EMA - which makes me think it hit the highs of the day. Sometimes another mini pullback starts here as we saw in May (red arrow), but other times it just takes another day to get the strength to hurdle over it (green). What happens here may tell us a lot about this rally - i.e. fake out or imminent breakout.

The dollar is down and that is helping prices. The longer term chart shows the double top pullback.
If this holds, believe the I-fund price is going to be big today, since Friday's price was suspiciously low.

The VIX finished its two day spike, something we've become accustomed to. It's already back in the comfort zone, so it looks like investors are getting back into some modest complacency.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting setup for small caps. The Russell 2000 chart is stalling at the 50-day EMA (and below the the 50-Simple MA) while the S-fund's index DWCPF is above both - although coming off the highs. Both are below the prior highs, after the July / Aug highs were below the June high.

 

[tsptalk]

More dollar weakness is helping buoy prices again. Is this going to break down, or just test the moving averages?

 

[nasa1974]

It would be nice if the "S" fund can finish out the month on a positive note. After five down days in a row the last two days were nice. Lets hope we can keep it moving up.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action sees bond yields up but there is a ton of overhead resistance. The dollar is also up and that's putting pressure on the EFA (I-fund) this morning, as well as gold and oil.

The small caps are leading on the upside and once again the DWCPF chart finds itself testing that long resistance line. two open gaps are looming below.

 

[bmneveu]

Nice ascending floor there on that chart too

The small caps are leading on the upside and once again the DWCPF chart finds itself testing that long resistance line. two open gaps are looming below.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action sees yields and the dollar moving higher, although both are at their morning lows already.

The I-fund (EFA) is not happy about the strength in the dollar and is lagging the TSP funds so far.

Small caps are showing recent resilience and testing upper resistance now.

 

[tsptalk]

Oops! Sorry folks. It was just a sneeze. I repeat - Jerome Powell just sneezed. It wasn't an economic collapse this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

One gap filled on the dollar chart, and trying to hold at the rising support line. Can it hold, or will the overhead gap (red) be filled next?

The yield on the 10 year is down and the 50 and 200-day is trying to hold.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action: Dollar is up, yields are down. Large caps up with a breakout above resistance for the S&P 500 this morning, while small caps lag a bit.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Yields down (bonds up), dollar down (and below the support line, clinging to the EMAs), stocks down, oil down, gold flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Yields are flat and finding resistance at the moving averages. The dollar is down and looking for some final support from the 200-day EMA.

Stocks are up. The despite the weakness in the dollar, oil and gold are down.


This is an old chart but still 62 years of data...

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

 

[tsptalk]

37 year charts:

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are jumping - not sure why with the weaker than expected jobs report. The dollar is falling and flirting with a breakdown. An open gap below could be a target if it doesn't find support at today's lows..

Small caps are lagging while the Nasdaq is leading.

 

[bleeck]

Reminds me of Halloween. Costumes and candy, then the SCARY S*** near the end.

 

[Bullitt]

37 year charts:

It looks so easy doesn't it?

Pretty low volume day today even without the unemployment report. Usually after Labor Day everyone returns to their trading desks and volumes increase. We should get some better indications next week of how markets interpret the numbers.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks down, although the Russell 2000 is still positive. Oil down, Gold down, bitcoin reversing down from earlier lofty gains.

The culprit is a reversal rally in the dollar, plus yields are popping.

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks slipping with small caps lagging again. The dollar is up again while the 10-year yield is backing and filling an open gap.

The S-fund may be heading for a test of the 50-day EMA, or even looking toward those open gap, if the dip buyers let it get that far. New open gap overhead.