tsptalk's Market Talk

Here we are again...

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I am starting to believe that the Stock Market this month is very much like a classic James Bond Vodka Martini-

"Shaken, not stirred".

 
I'm more concerned about the large gap today on the both the C & S.

Yup, I wonder how long we'll be looking over our shoulders at that one? This could be the start of the 4th quarter rally - or we could get another headline / tweet that reverses everything. :dunno:

I'm curious if trading volume is up on this.
 
It's not surprising that the credit market is applauding the trade and Brexit headlines, but more impressive is the chart still looks good with the pullback finding support in expected areas.

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The S-fund is making a move above the 50 and 200-day EMAs again, but last Friday it couldn't hold those breakouts into the close. It could be a game changer if it does hold, but it could also be the top of the right shoulder of an H&S pattern. Too early to say.

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Today is one of those rare "weird" S-fund days were the Russell 2000 small cap index is up nicely, the S&P is flat, but the midcaps within the fund are taking the S-fund down.

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A little break in the recent rising trend (in the S&P anyway, but below 50-EMA in S-fund). Is the open gap finally going to be addressed?

This added midday sell-off has to do with Boeing, which is a major Dow component, but obviously not as big of a factor in the small caps or S&P for that matter, so it may be overdone this morning. Still investors are using it for an opportunity to sell, and technicians may be hoping it's a chance to get that gap filled. But they may want to be quick because news like this can be fleeting on the downside.

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The Transports are having another good day so far, and filled another open gap just below the September highs. The bad news is that the only gap left open on this chart is now down near 10,200. There was a similar gap in September that was filled about 4 weeks later. The question is whether this one has to get filled. Normally yes, although it doesn't necessarily have to make beeline right there. A failed breakout above 10,800 would probably bring it on.

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The small caps (S-fund) are lagging but so far they dip has filled the small open gap from Monday and held...

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Hmmm, bonds and gold (the safety trades) are up again, yet stocks refuse to fall. There's still some overhead resistance in these, but they are being pushed to the limits.

As I mentioned in today's commentary, I think something is going to have to give. Bonds, gold and stocks are all trying to rally together the last couple of days, and I'm no so sure they can or will all do that.

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The Transports are now testing the recent highs. Not 52-week highs, but an attempt at a triple top breakout.

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And longer-term, it is breaking above the descending resistance line...

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There's a lot of positive technical things happening out there for stocks so I won't post the charts of the many breakouts in the indices and breakdown in bonds, but the Transports are a little concerning with it failing so far. If it closes above that red resistance line, that will be a small victory, but the bulls do not want to see this close below it. It's close right now.

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