tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Typical pre-holiday action today with bullish bias.

It's interesting that the Transports are down. Almost all components in the index too.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJT/components?p=^DJT

 

[tsptalk]

New month, new direction?

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Gold and bonds are down, oil is up, so this isn't exactly a panic sell-off. That could change if the downside continues into the day / week, but right now, it looks "normal" or healthy after the rally we've had.

The market rarely does what I want it to do, but a pullback to 3025 on the S&P would be a nice clean way to start a Santa Claus rally later in the month.

 

[dannyboy]

I was all about jumping in but I looked at other articles and I saw Trump was at it again, threatening tariffs. That really spooked me for I lost 1/5 my account, last December. I'll wait for a better time.

 

[tsptalk]

Gold and bonds are down, oil is up, so this isn't exactly a panic sell-off. That could change if the downside continues into the day / week, but right now, it looks "normal" or healthy after the rally we've had.

Stocks are falling and this time Gold and bonds are rallying, so it's risk off on Wall Street.

 

[tsptalk]

One gap filled (blue), another small one opens (red) as we wait for the next trade headline...

The Bloomberg report, which cited people familiar with the talks, said the two countries were moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a so-called phase-one trade deal. President Donald Trump also said Wednesday that trade talks with China were going well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/dow-futures-adp-payroll-trade-manufacturing-data.html

 

[tsptalk]

A little pullback in bonds today - just enough to fill another gap. So, all gaps are filled above the flag. This looks bullish for the F-fund - unless those gaps within the flag get some attention.

 

[tsptalk]

Big rally in stocks today after the jobs number thumps estimates, and doubles the "whisper number". Another gap was opened. The question is, will this be one of those rare "runaway" gaps that doesn't get filled (maybe months or years down the road) or will it be like the more typical open gap that gets filled relatively quickly, like so many on this chart?

The Transports gapped up but also filled another gap and may be stalling and coming off the highs - although it's still early in the day.

Seasonality shifts to a more negative bias next week and the trade deal deadline is the 15th.

 

[tsptalk]

The Volatility Index is down this morning, but trying to hold above that 200-day EMA. Is it just me, or does it feel like something's about to happen to get this to bounce here? It's probably just me. :dunno:

 

[tsptalk]

Breakout - up to the bottom of the old support line. It could be a roadblock, although the resistance line is rising...

 

[rangerray]

I think that a lot of people are going to believe the Santa rally is starting early and we're off to the races!

 

[tsptalk]

I think that a lot of people are going to believe the Santa rally is starting early and we're off to the races!

Unless the new tariffs get implemented on Sunday. This was just another "on again" trade tweet from Pres. Trump.


Dow jumps 260 points, hits record on Trump tweet saying US is ‘very close’ to China deal

Stocks jumped in early trading Thursday after President Donald Trump said China and the U.S. were zeroing in on a trade deal, lifting hope that an agreement will be reached before a key deadline.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/stock-market-us-china-trade-war-and-fed-in-focus-on-wall-street.html

 

[rangerray]

lol. My glass is half full today.

 

[James48843]

Unless the new tariffs get implemented on Sunday. This was just another "on again" trade tweet from Pres. Trump.


Dow jumps 260 points, hits record on Trump tweet saying US is ‘very close’ to China deal



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/stock-market-us-china-trade-war-and-fed-in-focus-on-wall-street.html

SURE....... VERY CLOSE to that China deal...

any moment now.


(Waiting for Godot. )

 

[tsptalk]

SURE....... VERY CLOSE to that China deal...

any moment now.


(Waiting for Godot. )

Phase 1 done, whatever that means. ("in principle pending Trump’s approval"). I'll have to read up.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/day-to-day-market-talk/33419-again-trade-deal.html#post630172

The president is meeting with advisors Thursday afternoon about whether to scrap the next round of tariffs on China.

The Trump administration has offered to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect Sunday and cut some existing duties in half, sources told CNBC.

 

[rangerray]

I May have called one right, as I’m hearing President Trump is in agreement and has even offered to roll back some tariffs significantly. That rollback has probably not been “priced in.”

Like I said, I suspect an early Santa rally is in the works.


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[tsptalk]

Not exactly what's on everyone's mind this morning with stocks dipping and bonds ripping, but the energy sector looks to be failing at the 200-day EMA again.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up sharply this morning for some reason. I didn't see any economic data that might trigger this.

That rally in yields is pushing bond prices (F-fund) down and while it is still in that bull flag, it is back down testing that 50-day EMA again.

 

[tsptalk]

Another day with the bears hibernating. One weird thing is the high yield corporate bonds have been dipping the last couple of days while stocks are rallying, although they've had quite a run too recently...