tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

the Transports are a little concerning with it failing so far. If it closes above that red resistance line, that will be a small victory, but the bulls do not want to see this close below it. It's close right now.

Early Wednesday action:

A little follow up on Monday's negative reversal and a break in the recent trend...

Also, small caps are lagging the S&P as the DWCPF has filled its gap and is testing the rising support line...

The S&P 500 filled its gap but is also getting a bounce off it. It's early though, with the Fed waiting...

 

[tsptalk]

The 50 and 200-day EMAs are now possible downside targets, but there is some rising support at today's lows that could try to hold...

 

[tsptalk]

The 50 and 200-day EMAs are now possible downside targets, but there is some rising support at today's lows that could try to hold...

 

[tsptalk]

Both recent laggards, small caps and the Transports, both of which put in strong positive reversal days on Thursday, are leading today...

 

[tsptalk]

Look at the Transports go again... but at this morning's highs it is facing a double top.

 

[tsptalk]

Not much going on today in the stock market except some fading that may be trying to fill the open gaps from Monday...

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are down moderately this morning and may need an afternoon rally to keep it from breaking down from the rising support line...

 

[tsptalk]

Another quiet day, and very few interesting developments this morning so far. I see the HYG high yield bond fund is down for a bit of a negative divergence. Other than that most indices are green except the Transports are still in a double top pullback process.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting positive technical development in bonds this morning. It's looking more like a bull flag now, and the 2019 chart shows a possible fake-out breakdown, that could turn into a breakout - as we sometimes see in pennant formations -- the fake-out / breakout.

That said, bonds have always been tough for me to figure out with technical analysis. They rarely do was seems obvious to me.

 

[tsptalk]

The "safety trades" have been slowly falling as stocks have risen since early October, but these now look like large bull flags. If do we see bull flag breakouts in gold and bonds it could very well mean that stocks won't be performing well. Who knows when though, because flags can drag on for some time. So "if" they breakout of these flags, and "when" they do, are the questions.

 

[tsptalk]

Double top for S-fund, or just a temporary pause before a test of the all-time highs?...

 

[tsptalk]

The yield on the 10-year appears to be at the make or break level. The F-fund will move in the opposite direction of this coming breakdown, or bounce off support.

 

[tsptalk]

A couple of early developments this morning...

The Transports have now filled that open gap...

The 10-year Treasury yield and the AGG have broken their flag formations. They could be fake outs, as we saw on the other side of each of the flags earlier this month...

 

[color2blue]

A couple of early developments this morning...

The Transports have now filled that open gap...

The 10-year Treasury yield and the AGG have broken their flag formations. They could be fake outs, as we saw on the other side of each of the flags earlier this month...

Is “filled that open gap” a good thing or a bad thing? I’m just learning all this....


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[tsptalk]

Is “filled that open gap” a good thing or a bad thing? I’m just learning all this....

It's good in that we anticipate them getting filled. If it had continued to rally without filling the gap, then we have to keep looking over our shoulders that it could still happen.

So from a technical analysis viewpoint, it is good. Whether it is good for the Transports itself isn't as certain - especially since there is another large open gap down by 10,100.

 

[tsptalk]

Trade news just filled the gap on the S&P 500...

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting day. Stocks are down, and the safety trade of bonds and gold are also down.

The dollar is up, which has something to do with it, but the slide in stocks today isn't being met with much concern so far.

The VIX is up, oil is up, high yield corporate bonds are up slightly.

The Transports have fallen to their 50-day EMA looking for support.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is getting a pop today, while the yield on the 10-year is off the lows but down slightly, and stalling at the old support area...

 

[tsptalk]

VIX at 12.00 again....

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps making a move...