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The yield on the 10-year is slipping back below the 50-day EMA ...

091919a.gif



... after reversing at some overhear resistance...

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While the S&P 500 test the prior highs again...

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The Transports are doing their part in holding at the key 50/200 day EMAs so far this morning. If they fail I assume filling the gap below would be next. Gaps do tend to get filled, but otherwise these EMAs would be a good place for the Transports to try stop the bleeding.

092319a.gif
 
I have been giving the Russell 2000 the benefit of the doubt that this could be a bull flag, but the flag in July is a better example, while the current one may be getting too steep to be considered a flag.

092419a.gif
 
The 50-day EMA was successfully tested in early trading. That tends to happen on the first test (buy limit orders, etc.), but with the gap still open near 2940, I wouldn't be surprised to see another test later today or in the coming days.

092519a.gif
 
Looks like the small caps will need a strong close to keep from closing below all of the key moving averages.

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Stocks are getting a nice boost on the final trading day in September, but oil is not rallying and the energy sector ETF is still in some technical trouble after the Saudi oi attack pop and drop. The questions is, can stocks rally if oil is not coming along for the ride?

093019b.gif
 
The 2nd gap was filled this morning (blue gaps are filled), opening another above near 2940 again (red). There is another tiny gap left open from August near 2885, but may not be significant, except it would get filled if the 200-day EMA gets tested...

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Too early to call a bottom, but it's not a surprise to see a bounce at the 200-day EMA on the first test...

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Will this pattern continue?

Drop to test, hold, and rally at 200-day EMA

Gap up above the 100-day EMA a day or two later

Hit the 50-day EMA

Wash, rinse, repeat?

100419a.gif
 
I don't know if this will be a repeat of August, but if so we may have reached a temporary peak. It could be different this time, but there is also an open gap below 2920 that will want to get filled eventually.

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The HYG High Corporate Yield Bond Fund ticked back above the 50-day EMA this morning. The patterns seems to be repeating, but for the stock market to keep moving higher, this needs to keep improving and recapture 86.40.

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If feels like it doesn't want to hold today, but the S&P 500 futures were actually up about 40-points late last night (early Wed. morning) so there is some room on the upside to run since the futures showed no resistance to hitting that level - which would be about 2935 (currently 2910). That seems ambitious, but I'm just going by the futures chart.
 
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