tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Interesting spot for the dollar and the I-fund - which does better when the dollar is falling.

The dollar has been trending higher but recently pulled back hard to the bottom of that rising channel.

At the sa,e time the I-fund has rallied sharply over the last few days, hitting some overhead descending resistance.

 

[BamaAF]

Hard decision for me - hour and a half to make it - do I stay or do I go - good exit opportunity, OR - will this continue for a couple of days - decision, decision, decision

 

[ATCJeff]

Hopefully this is the break out from this crazy "flag" formation.

 

[tsptalk]

Hard decision for me - hour and a half to make it - do I stay or do I go - good exit opportunity, OR - will this continue for a couple of days - decision, decision, decision

My thinking is, as long as the Fed is on the horizon, and the trade talks are on for October, there won't be a lot of aggressive selling. But after the FOMC meeting it would get more vulnerable, and of course some negative Trade tweets and boom!

Thanks for nothing, right?

 

[tsptalk]

Hopefully this is the break out from this crazy "flag" formation.

Yeah, and the small caps breaking above that 200 and 50-day EMA's is big. Needs to hold, obviously. They are coming off their highs hard as I speak.

 

[tsptalk]

What a difference a few days make...

 

[BamaAF]

No that's good info - I stuck it out - maybe we can get back to pre Aug levels again and beyond before agressive selling

 

[tsptalk]

I'm a little surprised how weak the VIX was considering the Nasdaq and small caps closed negative, while the Dow and S&P fell fairly sharply off the highs into the close.

VIX: -7.6%, closed near its lows, and broke below the 200-day EMA rather easily.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps of the Russell 2000 of flying...

The S-fund's index is up, but not flying, for some reason.

 

[tsptalk]

Today's winners seem to be the sectors that had been lagging...

Financials
Energy
Transports
Small Caps

https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^rut,xle,xlf,^DJT/view/v1

 

[tsptalk]

The theme / rotation continues... small caps, Transports, and energy leading again today.

 

[ATCJeff]

That was a strong close today!

Jeff

 

[tsptalk]

Here's the first test of this rebound in yields (10-year Treasury). If that can get taken out, the top of the gap would be the next test.

 

[tsptalk]

10-year yield: Gap filled and resistance being tested. Here's the pivot point for the stock market, imho.

 

[NatInPW]

so if this breaks through the resistance you see the stock market taking off on the up-side?

10-year yield: Gap filled and resistance being tested. Here's the pivot point for the stock market, imho.

 

[tsptalk]

so if this breaks through the resistance you see the stock market taking off on the up-side?

It would be more likely. On the other hand, if the resistance hold, stocks may pullback again.

There are other levels of resistance below 1.9% that could come into play before the 200-day EMA...

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are bouncing back from some steep overnight futures losses. The S&P 500 is now down just modestly (about 7 points right now). Oil is up over 10%, bond yields are down, and small caps are rallying big again, nearly hitting Friday's highs again.

 

[tsptalk]

New highs in High Yield Corporate Bond Fund today, even after the negative reversal day on Friday? Interesting...

 

[tsptalk]

FedEx leading the Transports lower -nearly testing the 200-day EMA...

 

[James48843]

Petroleum price spike means Fedex will have to pay more for diesel fuel and jet fuel.


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