Steadygain's Account Talk

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I got the information on the previous post from RunningFool's page. If the information is up to date - then I have achievied "the impossible". Some of the names I recognize as being way ahead of me as 4th quarter started and I honestly did not see any possibility of catch n' up - let alone getting twice ahead - but if this information is up to date then WOW! I GUESS I'VE DONE FAIRLY WELL AFTER ALL.

Please EVERYONE - and I mean EVERYONE - I don't mean to brag (that is not my intent) and I'm not glad for anyone's loss - I simply go with the Market's Vibes - and enjoy the ride. But I'm obviously fairly emotional and I try to be as real and as transparent as I can be. I am thrilled to pieces to have achieved my beginning goal for the year in 9/07 but I didn't know it put me in the ranks with some of you - and as I read through most of your pages - I often feel like most of you are way more in touch with Market indicators - where I just look for the flow and strive to ride the waves that gain - and get off before they crash.
 
What I find interesting about the list of top performers is that only one member has any position in the C fund. From my perspective as a renegade contrarian this is perfect positioning. Certainly they all know that the euro zone is slowing because exports are slowing and that Japan is smelling deflationary scents again. When you concentrate on chasing the momentum eventually the music slows and you are alone on the dance floor. So right now I'm happy sitting on the group W bench watching the fun and I feel, what's the word I'm looking for - indemnified. It's time for dollar stability and the consequences that arise from that stability.
 
Birch, when it comes to financial information (and advice in general) you are definately the first I would turn to. Here I am not trying to downplay your incredible fund of knowledge and accurate assessment of what's happening in the global markets but simply comparing this to my sheer gut assessment. I try to feel out the Market's Vibes - and flow with them as best I can. Today the I Fund is over 1% - but that may change by the end of the day. Even if it does change - THE FACT IS THE VIBES ARE VERY GOOD AND I AM FLOATING ON TOP OF THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. This is a wonderful day for me - it's like the I FUND is filtering through me to lift me up - give me energy - and make me feel wonderful.

Charmed, thanks for the information. I thought it was their yearly up to date returns - which is a far cry from the truth. This honestly makes me feel a lot better - because I can hopefully learn from them and be a better investor. If I were really at the top - it would be harder for me to change my IFT style.

I don't know what BTW means - but I have been posting my suggested IFTs and comparing them to each fund and 20% each on a weekly basis.

Anyway - THANKS EVERYONE - BE COOL - ENJOY THE DAY AND MAKE THE MOST OUT OF LIFE. SPREAD LOVE AND KINDNESS AS DEEPLY AND SINCERELY AS YOU CAN AND YOU WILL FIND TRUE HAPPINESS.
 
BTW = By The Way...

and I'm ready for the volatility to end... how 'bout you?

--enjoying your posts
 
I think in the way you probably mean it - YES - MOST DEFINATELY - I am ready for the volatility to end. By this I mean for the remaining 4Q I am ready for seasonality to take over and the major money movers to put the trimmings on their various funds ALL OF WHICH WILL SEND I, S, and C UP LIKE A ROCKET. This would be a wonderful way for all of us to end the year.

That being said however - my overwhelming hope is the Markets will experience strains and weaknesses on multiple levels to the point that the gimicks (like lowering gas prices - or saying the credit crunch is over) will no longer work. I AM NOT OUT TO MAKE ANY ENIMIES - but honestly the present Markets are ridiculous and are undoubtedly persuading the general population that it can maintain healthy growth with no need to rest. THAT SIMPLY IS NOT TRUE AND OUR MARKETS ARE WAY OVER DUE - NOT FOR A CORRECTION THAT IS SHORT LIVED - BUT OVER DUE FOR A MAJOR RECESSION THAT WILL LAST A YEAR OR MORE. I MEAN I REALLY WANT TO SEE A HUGE CORRECTION LIKE 40 TO 50% (OR MAYBE MORE) - BECAUSE IN THE END THE REAL VOLATILITY WILL DISAPPEAR AND THE MARKETS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS THEY ONCE AGAIN EMERGE.

So my dear friends - once again I hope everyone is doing well, and if my hopes and dreams of a major recession wreaks havock on the Markets for a year or more in the near future - then all of us will not lose a penny because one investment is guaranteed and nothing can stop us from seizing (and holding onto) our gains.
 
Me too Birch, me too....... I need 2yrs, 8mos. of up uP UP! Thank you very much. If a major recesson were to occur, I would then be fearfull of repression and then depression.:blink:
 
The ones that really control the shots have maintained this mentality and have somehow have kept it going no matter what the circumstances - and irregardless of what is happening with various key sectors. Those in power are insisting the Fed do everything possible (to use every available tool) to keep the Markets going. The president instantly signs some bill forgiving debt - or earasing huge losses and the government is constantly using methods to balance the budget that are totally counter to sound financial methods all industries have to use.

Interestingly - you fear repression and depression. The overwhelming majority are hugely in debt and live beyond their means, so my friend the repression and depression is already there. I am as American as you can get - and I don't mean this to sound anti-American but we are trillions and trillions in debt this very moment. The repression and depression you so desperately want to avoid - is already here - and it is only because China keeps loaning us more and more money that you don't see it. But it can not go on forever. I wants the brakes to slam on - gets things adjusted and do things right - so we can move on in a healthy manner.

The past 5 years have undoubtedly made many rich - and everyone is doing all they can to keep it going, but in the long run it will be far worse for future generations and far worse for everyone of us if we don't let the Market take a healthy rest. I personally feel the present would be the best time possible - so that all realize just how serious debt can be.
 
A slow, progressive, prolonged economic expansion will solve all the debt problems. It simply takes time. Just don't let the Donkey in the White House.
 
As of the morning of 10/19 the results of 4th Quarter were:

1.66% - going with my stated suggestions
0.25% - G Fund
0.60% - F Fund
-.40% - C Fund
0.58% - S Fund
0.24% - I Fund
0.25% - 20% Each.

Here's the update.
Mine was the I Fund (as of today -2.52% plus 1.6% = -.92%
So my stated results are 1.66% - .92% = .74%
.74% - Mine
.33% - G Fund
-1.94% - C Fund
-1.43% - S Fund

Using our standard $100,000
Mine = $740
G = $330
C = -1,940
S = -1,430

That puts me $2,680 ahead of C Fund
and $2,170 ahead of S Fund

Sorry - dear friends - but I did not calculate the F Fund or 20% each.

Anyway, today was a very busy day. I was helping a group of men cut down a large tree by 7:30 and then we cut that up for firewood. All the firewood money goes to Habitat for Humanity. We've built 2 homes so far just from firewood money. Then I had to rush to Taylor University to bring my daughter and her friend home for the weekend. I'm using a week of Annual Leave (use it or lose it).

Well, I transferred everything to G Fund today and I appologize for not making that change known in time - for anyone who might be following my lead. Minnow - the volatility - is getting too much for me at this point. I absolutely hate to lose money and if my gut is telling me to go to safety and limit the loss THEN THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I'LL DO. So I am now in safety and hoping to buy at a lower price. I am not out of the game - only pausing for a moment. Birch - you are like a brother to me and I'm sorry if I disappointed you in our endless pursuit to show everyone that we will stay where we are come hell or high water - but at this point I am not willing risk further loss. If the Markets rebound by a huge margin while I'm in G - then I'm happy for you (and I swear - I really mean that). But for a while I need a little more stability. Also THANKS for your optimism regarding the economy. I would say your thought would be true if the multiple systems which control our economy were largely changed - or if the slow gain remained at 1% over the next 30 years. But the powers that be would never let either one happen - so we are stuck with a less than ideal system. I AM THRILLED TO NO END THAT NEITHER ONE OF US HAS TO DEAL WITH TRYING TO CHANGE IT - I WOULD A THOUSAND TIMES OVER RATHER BE A SIMPLE FEDERAL EMPLOYEE (UNKNOWN TO ANYONE THAT COUNTS) BUILDING MY NEST EGG.

So to everyone out there - thanks for checking my thread and all the more THANK YOU FOR ENJOYING IT. I've received some really nice feedback and I appreciate it. The way to make money is not staying in G Fund - that is reserved for safety only - and for the past 2 weeks it would have been appropriate. But I will most definately return to I, S, or C in the near future - (when my gut tells me) and that would be if the Markets drop another 2% BUY BUY BUY - or things appear really stable.

So everyone - be cool - enjoy the health and freedom you are so blessed to have - and hopefully by this time December we will all be another 5% richer (maybe even more).
 
Another BEAUTIFUL DAY for the MARKETS. YEE HAA.

LONDON (Reuters) - The United States has entered a recession, according to highly-regarded investor Jim Rogers, who told Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper on Wednesday he was switching out of the dollar and into yen, the yuan and the Swiss franc.
The veteran investor, who predicted the 1999 commodities rally, also said he was still bullish about surging Chinese stock markets despite worries over a bubble.
Fears are growing over the health of the U.S. economy after the fallout from the subprime mortgage market crisis and the global credit crunch it triggered.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has already slashed borrowing costs by 50 basis points to 4.75 percent to try and shore up the world's biggest economy and is widely expected to lower interest rates again next week.
"The US economy is undoubtedly in recession," Rogers told the Telegraph in Hong Kong in an article published on its Website.
"Many parts of industry are actually in a state worse than recession. If it were not for (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke putting huge amounts of money into the market, the stock market would probably be down much more than it is."
Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s, said it made sense to desert the dollar.
 
All of us are desperately wanting another few months of solid gains and I hope we all get it. There is enough news from substantial companies to give us encouragement. The Fed will likely drop the rate another .25% - but BEN HAS MADE IT VERY CLEAR THAT FUTURE CUTS ARE NOT THE WAY TO SOLVE OUR SITUATION - IN FACT IT MAY ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE - AND THE OVERALL PICTURE IS WAY MORE IMPORTANT TO HIM. The value of the dollar is rapidly shrinking and although that seems to have little to no impact on our daily routine - it will make things a lot harder in the future. We are in a mess and have been for quite awhile but somehow the shades remain down and we either can't see it - or we refuse to believe it, because no one wants to go to a losing mode of thinking.

If I were strictly a day trader - I would put 100% in S or C tomorrow, as the overwhelming odds are it will have an up day. Last Friday many were convinced the S Fund was a guaranteed winner and lost big time. I am still at least 12% for the year and am very grateful for that.

I am the sole bread winner and my TSP is vital for our retirement years and my overall goal is to convince my wife THAT WE CAN FLY TO ENGLAND, IRELAND, EUROPE, KOREA, ALASKA - on at least a biyearly basis for at least 2 or 3 weeks and still have plenty to spare. We have never had cable TV or high speed internet - but our daughters go to fairly costly colleges and we are fully paying for that. I take way more risks than my wife would ever think of doing - but then again I have done very well over the years.

At this point I am still in G Fund and if tomorrow is anything like last Friday then I will stay in G longer than I expected. The overall poll with Tom showed a Bullish Market - and I think the whole group has a better handle on the Markets than me (so I am still encouraged). All of us need to see some positive movements soon - let's hope we get it.
 
Steadygain said:
I will most definately return to I, S, or C in the near future - (when my gut tells me) and that would be if the Markets drop another 2% BUY BUY BUY - or things appear really stable.
Click to expand...

So what you're saying is, that by going 100C, this market appears to be stable?

Brother man, here's a quote by Jimi Hendrix. Feel free to substitute the word guitar with C Fund. "Sometimes you want to give up the guitar, you'll hate the guitar. But if you stick with it, you're gonna be rewarded."
 
:) Thanks for the response Bullitt - and you picked a great picture.

Today was the confidence showing through and I'm thrilled to see it. I think the I Fund would probably do the best and that's usually the one I stick with. The C Fund has been beaten down too long and a very big part of me wants to show everyone I STAND BEHIND AMERICA AND I WILL GO ALL THE WAY TO SUPPORT THEIR MARKETS. If I come out with a little less than I Fund or S Fund - that's cool - I still should do very well.

To answer your question - stability for seasonal gains appears to be intact and that's all I really care about for the near future. Stability in general is non-existant from my prespective and I still expect a huge correction (if not a full blown recession shortly after the seasonality rally). But if we are having a seasonal rally I want to be fully invested.
 
Bullitt said:
Brother man, here's a quote by Jimi Hendrix. "Sometimes you want to give up the guitar, you'll hate the guitar. But if you stick with it, you're gonna be rewarded."
Click to expand...

It's stange that Jimi would say this because he was able to go so much further than anyone one else - and do it with such ease. But I certainly can appreciate his frustration, because the stuff he played in his mind was so far beyond anything we ever heard. And honestly I have often felt the same way when I'm adding huge amounts of guitar stuff to songs on the radio when driving around. If that stuff could ever be broadcast I think many would see just how deeply Jimi inspired me.
 
In the 10th grade a teacher challenged me (and the rest of the class) to honestly look deep within and come up with the most far reaching life goal we would want to achieve. It was at a time when all of us truely believed we could accomplish anything we wanted. My name is towards the end of the alphabet - so I had more time to really come up with something worthwhile - something I could want to stay with over the years. My goal was "To know the brain through and through; to fully understand why we think the way we do and know the basis behind our emotions". For me that was the most incredible goal imaginable and I continue towards this endeavor. At that time however the general population felt the brain was God's unsolvable mistery - and the class was outraged. It was like I made some pledge with Satan to attack God. But I didn't see it that way at all. Over the years I have learned a lot, and today I share my findings with a group of psychiatrists I work with. Please forgive me for boring you with all this stuff but I'm getting to my point. The theta rhythm is one of many brain rhythms - but this one stands out as the most central to many brain functions, and is crucial for life as we know it. Not surprizingly - the Earth itself also has a base rhythm - which is also the theta rhythm. I'm telling you this because from my perspective we are all brothers and sisters. We all come from this planet and this is our home forever. Everyone of us is identical in terms of our DNA by at least 99.9%. Anyway - I have never had any kind of negative comment from anyone on this site - and I deeply appreciate that. But because of the image I've chosen some of you think I'm black. I'm not black, I'm white and all of my known relatives are white. I do see Jimi as a black man (and also Native American) - and for the time he was famous it would have been way harder for him to make a name in the Rock World. In part I admire him all the more for making it as big as he did for the "times he lived in". I picked his image because he was one of the few people that was an "idol" to me - he was the first. Where everyone else would get distracted with distortion - Jimi welcomed it and mastered all sound. He fully controlled the guitar like no one else I've ever seen or heard. He dressed in a way that went beyond anyone else I knew, and could play just as easily behind his neck or with his teeth. The Star Spangled Banner was for me the ultimate - and incredible as it may sound - he started that song using just one hand, the other hand lifted high to the crowd for everyone to be united as one and everyone was. He was different and unique in many ways (left handed and playing the guitar upside down) - but I did not chose Jimi Hendrix as my symbol because I'm black - I chose him because he was one of the few to truely inspire me.
 
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