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Steadygain's Account Talk
- Thread starter Steadygain
- Start date
SkyPilot
Well-known member
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks man - THAT REALLY MADE MY DAY!!
charmed855
Member
ATCJeff
Well-known member
YOUR MOST WELCOME.
DON'T FORGET, IF THE DIFFERENCES STAY THE SAME AND BOTH THE EFA AND I-FUND LOSE .81%,,,, THEN THE I - FUND SHOULD DROP TO $25.63 PER SHARE. IF THE I-FUND DOES BETTER, IT ADDS TO THE DIFFERENCES. (my guess) $25.68 A SHARE FOR A LOSE OF .62% WHICH WILL LEAVE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE I-FUND/EFA AT <.47%> OR <.12 TSP CENTS> DOUBLE DIGITS. GOOD LUCK IN YOUR INVESTMENTS AND HERES HOPING FOR A REBOUND TOMARROW (I DOUBLED UP)
Hey man, buy a new keyboard. Your caps lock button is broken!
charmed855
Member
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Chill my friends - if I use caps - it's to stress or emphasize.
Anyway, I'm very glad I stayed in I Fund and will likely stay there almost as long a Birch is in C Fund. I'm still in the good.
Anyway, I'm very glad I stayed in I Fund and will likely stay there almost as long a Birch is in C Fund. I'm still in the good.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
I'm starting to rethink my game plan.
First of all - the press never talks about our incredible mounting debt and China's equally overwhelming surplus. All of us should know by this time that it is only because China keeps loaning us money that our economy is in operation. I am not concerned about China ceasing to give us any more money, as this would cause our economy to collapse and China and the rest of the world would lose out as well. My main concern is the way China's Market is growing - which I see as dangerous and bound to fall apart at some point in the near future. When China goes through turmoil it will undoubtedly have a negative impact on us.
Second - I mentioned weaknesses in key factors. Griffin (spelling ?) the Moderator on this site recently revealed the Beige Sheet yesterday which draws on these weaknesses as well as the Fed's Concern. If they are concerned - we should be scared and trembling - getting ready to take a very cautious stand. Other factors not mentioned in the report are the president's alarming concern regarding global trade.
Third - the "credit crunch" is simply a scape goat wording to justify why we are heading into a recession. The truth of the matter is - most people seem to think they need things now - and they need the biggest and the best - and going in debt is never (or rarely) a concern. Plus in our blind pursuit for riches we often buy 100 times over what the hot item is worth (as I did during the Internet Bubble). I am one of the few to really learn a lesson from that and will be overly cautious the rest of my life.
BY NOW YOU PROBABLY NEED A NAP - SORRY THIS IS SO LONG
Now I question whether the Markets will wait until 08 to hit the hard times. By guaging the present Markets - things still look very healthy for November and early December. I see the Markets right now as horses in the gate at the racetrack. When the gate spings open I expect the Markets to fly fast - very fast to 5% or better. My target is now 5% and I am ready to shift to G Fund when that happens.
First of all - the press never talks about our incredible mounting debt and China's equally overwhelming surplus. All of us should know by this time that it is only because China keeps loaning us money that our economy is in operation. I am not concerned about China ceasing to give us any more money, as this would cause our economy to collapse and China and the rest of the world would lose out as well. My main concern is the way China's Market is growing - which I see as dangerous and bound to fall apart at some point in the near future. When China goes through turmoil it will undoubtedly have a negative impact on us.
Second - I mentioned weaknesses in key factors. Griffin (spelling ?) the Moderator on this site recently revealed the Beige Sheet yesterday which draws on these weaknesses as well as the Fed's Concern. If they are concerned - we should be scared and trembling - getting ready to take a very cautious stand. Other factors not mentioned in the report are the president's alarming concern regarding global trade.
Third - the "credit crunch" is simply a scape goat wording to justify why we are heading into a recession. The truth of the matter is - most people seem to think they need things now - and they need the biggest and the best - and going in debt is never (or rarely) a concern. Plus in our blind pursuit for riches we often buy 100 times over what the hot item is worth (as I did during the Internet Bubble). I am one of the few to really learn a lesson from that and will be overly cautious the rest of my life.
BY NOW YOU PROBABLY NEED A NAP - SORRY THIS IS SO LONG
Now I question whether the Markets will wait until 08 to hit the hard times. By guaging the present Markets - things still look very healthy for November and early December. I see the Markets right now as horses in the gate at the racetrack. When the gate spings open I expect the Markets to fly fast - very fast to 5% or better. My target is now 5% and I am ready to shift to G Fund when that happens.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Don't worry about the Chinese market - they are in an Elliott Primary wave 3 and their bull run will last for several more years. Yes, they have had a 303% gain since 2002 - but they are owned by 50 million individuals and not by panicky hedge funds or institutions. The individual has no reason to sell.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks Birch - but China's Market is just a small piece of the puzzled predicament. I'm not saying these things to cause alarm, but simply sharing my reflections. I am more concerned with China's ability to acquire or control needed resouces. It would be hard to make waves with a power that maintains your overall stability. But my concerns with China are much more a reflection on our country's debt - which means nothing to anyone because we've heard so much about it over the years and everything seems fine. It goes hand and hand with global warming - we can simply pretend it doesn't matter - but at some point in time our increasing debt (and global warming) will create hardships beyond anything we've known to date. And when these hardships take a huge toll on those who have wisely infested - lived simply - and saved a lot - I am always thinking of ways to protect the nest egg.
When I accquire an additional 5% - especially if it's around a 3 week span - then I'm going to safety the rest of the year.
When I accquire an additional 5% - especially if it's around a 3 week span - then I'm going to safety the rest of the year.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Yesterday was extremely busy - and the few minutes I had to reflect my gut feelings turned out to be pretty negative. I think this was largely because the TSP was unimpressive. But I was wrong. The Seasonality Attachment - clearly shows what we got this week is what we should have expected AND THINGS LOOK GREAT FOR 4TH QUARTER.
The motto is "Friends don't let friends Buy and Hold" - and on the whole that is very true. Birch is demonstrating a true friendship by telling me don't dump a gaining investment too early - AND HE IS RIGHT. My overall plan has been to seize the opportunity 4th quarter has in store and ride it out to the end. I will likely remain in I Fund - and will end the year with 3 to 5% more than jumping to safety too soon.
I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom - but I certainty believe our economy is largely based on cheap oil and when it gets expensive an incredible strain will occur. Storms are getting worse and new epidemics will emerge. All these things in addition to my reflections of yesterday certainly make me a little concerned about the future - BUT FOR NOW THINGS ARE STILL VERY GOOD AND I THINK THE NEXT 50 YEARS SHOULDN'T BE TOO BAD.
The motto is "Friends don't let friends Buy and Hold" - and on the whole that is very true. Birch is demonstrating a true friendship by telling me don't dump a gaining investment too early - AND HE IS RIGHT. My overall plan has been to seize the opportunity 4th quarter has in store and ride it out to the end. I will likely remain in I Fund - and will end the year with 3 to 5% more than jumping to safety too soon.
I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom - but I certainty believe our economy is largely based on cheap oil and when it gets expensive an incredible strain will occur. Storms are getting worse and new epidemics will emerge. All these things in addition to my reflections of yesterday certainly make me a little concerned about the future - BUT FOR NOW THINGS ARE STILL VERY GOOD AND I THINK THE NEXT 50 YEARS SHOULDN'T BE TOO BAD.
Last edited:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
As of this morning the results of 4th Quarter are in:
1.66% - going with my stated suggestions
0.25% - G Fund
0.60% - F Fund
-.40% - C Fund
0.58% - S Fund
0.24% - I Fund
0.25% - 20% Each.
Everyone have a great weekend - and bear in mind this week was supposed to be bad for the TSP. But it is simply a giant spring being pushed down to the max - IT WILL SPRING BACK AND WITH A FORCE.
1.66% - going with my stated suggestions
0.25% - G Fund
0.60% - F Fund
-.40% - C Fund
0.58% - S Fund
0.24% - I Fund
0.25% - 20% Each.
Everyone have a great weekend - and bear in mind this week was supposed to be bad for the TSP. But it is simply a giant spring being pushed down to the max - IT WILL SPRING BACK AND WITH A FORCE.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
We entered last week with hope but met with (and continue going through) despair. But several messages ringing out from Jimi explain our situation.
"Woman sweet woman wish I could caress and kiss,
manic depression full straight and miss."
MEANING: The woman here is the Market making substantial gains. She is full of life and beauty. We all know her and all of us long for her. She is absolutely wonderful and we all know how good she makes us feel. She brings us to a state of euphoria, and in our manic condition we charge straight ahead with everything AND MISS. The unexpected miss causes the bottom to drop out - leaving us empty and depressed.
"Heaven help me - oh endlessly,
whatever is it THAT GIRL PUT A SPELL ON ME"
MEANING: We are existential beings - we live in the here and now, and way too often the present moment dominates our thinking (to the point we miss the overall picture). The spell of a rising Market is wonderful, but the spell of a small dip (like what we are presently experiencing) makes us feel like we're plunging to the bottom. BUT DON'T BE BLINDED BY THE MOMENT. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS STILL VERY GOOD AND IN COMPARISON TO THE EXPECTED SEASONAL GAINS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER - WHAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH IS REALLY JUST A SMALL DIP.
Bottom line - I will stay where I was all last week. Friday's money went to G Fund and will go 100% to I Fund today. I typically go all the way so I will be 100% this week as well. When the woman described above returns, I will definately want to be 100% ready to greet her.
Peace, love, and happiness to all.
"Woman sweet woman wish I could caress and kiss,
manic depression full straight and miss."
MEANING: The woman here is the Market making substantial gains. She is full of life and beauty. We all know her and all of us long for her. She is absolutely wonderful and we all know how good she makes us feel. She brings us to a state of euphoria, and in our manic condition we charge straight ahead with everything AND MISS. The unexpected miss causes the bottom to drop out - leaving us empty and depressed.
"Heaven help me - oh endlessly,
whatever is it THAT GIRL PUT A SPELL ON ME"
MEANING: We are existential beings - we live in the here and now, and way too often the present moment dominates our thinking (to the point we miss the overall picture). The spell of a rising Market is wonderful, but the spell of a small dip (like what we are presently experiencing) makes us feel like we're plunging to the bottom. BUT DON'T BE BLINDED BY THE MOMENT. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS STILL VERY GOOD AND IN COMPARISON TO THE EXPECTED SEASONAL GAINS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER - WHAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH IS REALLY JUST A SMALL DIP.
Bottom line - I will stay where I was all last week. Friday's money went to G Fund and will go 100% to I Fund today. I typically go all the way so I will be 100% this week as well. When the woman described above returns, I will definately want to be 100% ready to greet her.
Peace, love, and happiness to all.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
In the previous message when I said "Friday's money went to G Fund" - that was only Friday's Pay. I was - and now continue to be 100% I Fund.
Half of this site may think I'm completely insane for leaving my money in a fund that took a loss (and appears to be losing). For you I would say I have still maintained the dollar amount I hoped to have when this year ended. No matter what happens in the future months - even if the Markets would plunge by a huge loss (and keep losing); THERE IS NO WAY I WILL END THE YEAR AND NOT MAINTAIN BY ORIGINAL GOAL. If that means moving everything to G Fund and staying there - SO BE IT.
For the half that appreciates staying in high risk I would say we may have done better moving to G or F part of last week - but of course in hindsight you can't go wrong. Some of you may question why I don't move everything to C or to S - and if these actually start growing by a substantial difference I may well change in another week or two. Right now it's more of a personal thing - in that I do not want to appear as a loser in the TSP account (which getting out to early will do). So I am in to recover the loss and make a change as a winner (if I make a change). However my overall plan all along is proving that staying in I, C, or S will reap the biggest gain.
Half of this site may think I'm completely insane for leaving my money in a fund that took a loss (and appears to be losing). For you I would say I have still maintained the dollar amount I hoped to have when this year ended. No matter what happens in the future months - even if the Markets would plunge by a huge loss (and keep losing); THERE IS NO WAY I WILL END THE YEAR AND NOT MAINTAIN BY ORIGINAL GOAL. If that means moving everything to G Fund and staying there - SO BE IT.
For the half that appreciates staying in high risk I would say we may have done better moving to G or F part of last week - but of course in hindsight you can't go wrong. Some of you may question why I don't move everything to C or to S - and if these actually start growing by a substantial difference I may well change in another week or two. Right now it's more of a personal thing - in that I do not want to appear as a loser in the TSP account (which getting out to early will do). So I am in to recover the loss and make a change as a winner (if I make a change). However my overall plan all along is proving that staying in I, C, or S will reap the biggest gain.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Last week the talk of the site was the S Fund would have a substantial gain on Friday - instead it took a very big loss. Today it did very well and I wouldn't doubt it has a good day tomorrow. In hind sight I would have played S - but you never know on a day to day basis. THE MARKETS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE and that's all that really matters to me. The overwhelming odds are that the I Fund will equally enjoy a healthy gain - but not quite as fast as S or C. In comparison however both S and C lost substantially more. I SEE THIS AS A LESSON TO LEARN AND ALL OF US CAN PROFIT BY IT. WHEN THE MARKETS RECOVER FROM AN EXTENDED WEAKNESS - THOSE WHO WERE HARDEST HIT WILL RECOVER THE FASTEST. In the future I will probably adjust my ITFs accordingly but will wait until the end of the week before I put this rule in concrete. I understand how data can often give us a clue of which market is going to do well - and I can not fault the intellectually minded investors who frequently cite this and that for future projections. But the Markets often do not behave the way data would suggest and IN THE END WE EITHER CONFRONT A STRONG MARKET - OR A WEAK ONE. Emotions and Seasonality are everybit as important as whatever can be gathered on this and that - and the huge gainers feel this out pretty well.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
lmorgan .........................7.49 % .... 100I
Pogo..............................6.91 % .... 100I
Foghorn..........................6.02 % .... 100I
TSPgo-hi-risk.................. 5.94 % .... 100I
Callme_CO ..................... 5.43 % .... 100L2040
I_fund............................ 5.15 % .... 100I
charmed855 ....................4.82 % .... 100S
Ajaygo24 .......................4.68 % .... 5G25C25S25I
Sentimentsurvey...............4.50 % .... 100G
Pill ................................4.43 % .... 100I
GGal ............................. 4.40 % .... 30G36S35I
Frixxxx ...........................4.36 % .... 100I
T2034............................4.12 % .... 100I
Boxholder .......................4.03 % .... 100L2010
Ed_the_Fed.................... 3.74 % .... 100G
buda .............................3.71 % .... 100I
budnipper1......................3.68 % .... 70G30S
A few of the top posters (on the new tracker) and their allocations for Tue.
lmorgan ............................. 100I
Pogo.................................. 100I
Foghorn.............................. 100G
TSPgo-hi-risk..................... 80G10S10I
Callme_CO ......................... 100L2040
I_fund............................... 100I
charmed855 ........................ 100S
Ajaygo24 ........................... 5G25C25S45I
Sentimentsurvey................... 100G
Pill .................................... 100I
GGal ................................. 30G20F26S25I
Frixxxx ............................... 100I
T2034................................ 100I
Boxholder ........................... 100L2010
Ed_the_Fed....................... 100G
fabijo ................................ 100S
budnipper1........................ 70G30S
Griffin..................................100S
Pogo..............................6.91 % .... 100I
Foghorn..........................6.02 % .... 100I
TSPgo-hi-risk.................. 5.94 % .... 100I
Callme_CO ..................... 5.43 % .... 100L2040
I_fund............................ 5.15 % .... 100I
charmed855 ....................4.82 % .... 100S
Ajaygo24 .......................4.68 % .... 5G25C25S25I
Sentimentsurvey...............4.50 % .... 100G
Pill ................................4.43 % .... 100I
GGal ............................. 4.40 % .... 30G36S35I
Frixxxx ...........................4.36 % .... 100I
T2034............................4.12 % .... 100I
Boxholder .......................4.03 % .... 100L2010
Ed_the_Fed.................... 3.74 % .... 100G
buda .............................3.71 % .... 100I
budnipper1......................3.68 % .... 70G30S
A few of the top posters (on the new tracker) and their allocations for Tue.
lmorgan ............................. 100I
Pogo.................................. 100I
Foghorn.............................. 100G
TSPgo-hi-risk..................... 80G10S10I
Callme_CO ......................... 100L2040
I_fund............................... 100I
charmed855 ........................ 100S
Ajaygo24 ........................... 5G25C25S45I
Sentimentsurvey................... 100G
Pill .................................... 100I
GGal ................................. 30G20F26S25I
Frixxxx ............................... 100I
T2034................................ 100I
Boxholder ........................... 100L2010
Ed_the_Fed....................... 100G
fabijo ................................ 100S
budnipper1........................ 70G30S
Griffin..................................100S
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