Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

It's not that I want anyone to follow my advise - and I am certainly not arrogant, in fact I often state my plan with some uncertainty and am quite humbled by loss. The fact is - my avoidance of loss is the basis for MY SLOW BUT STEADY GAIN.

I joined the MB at the beginning of the 4th quarter (after printing the end of September's Accounts) and felt like I may be able to compete fairly well with everyone else. This is the first time I have ever publicly displayed my ITFs and although confidence is fairly high - there is always some churning in my stomach associated with the uncertainty.

I honestly believe that each of us is giving advise when we make known our ITFs. If Markets moved on human intellect (rationalization) then I think Tom would be in first place, but unfortunately he is near the bottom. I sincerely feel for anyone who has lost in this Market year and my comments were meant AS A SENSE OF HOPE - not an arrogant piece of crap. The point I am making is not everyone is going to win by making frequent ITFs - and though we all share a common addiction - I will often stay in G for months at a time when the sense of doom is apparent. Now my hope is that everyone on TSPTalk ends the year with GAIN. The probability of ending the year with a gain (if you are currently at a loss) is by buying in the higher risk and leaving it there. My comment regarding those who have less than 10% - was not to belittle anyone - it was equally intended as a plus to whatever gain you currently have.

Even though the BUY AND HOLDERS - are over 10%, I feel like anyone making frequent ITFs who is over 10% has room to spare (or money to lose). In otherwords I feel some should take the risk - because it's a game of skill (if you're really good) - BUT IT IS ALWAYS A GAME OF RISK.

The reason I give my results - is because the BOTTOM LINE IS THE TOTAL GAIN. By citing my ITFs I can prove my total gain is often as good as the Top 5 (at least so far) - and if I continue with my present record then I would welcome all to follow my lead.

 

[SkyPilot]

That being said, your concerns regarding other's gains or losses is commendable, but misplaced. Focus on your own gains, and if you do well, you may develop a following. More important, if you do well, then it's your insight people are interested in.

You will never get very far telling others what they "should" do. If so, you are assuming you know what's best for them, and this a hazard at best. And, if you offer advice, then it's implied that you intend people to take it. Again, a risky proposition on so many levels, for you and those who would apply it.

If you offer insight and opinion, fine and great. However, when you suggest that people follow actually follow it, then you assume that you know better than they what is appropriate in their situation. This is what is known as a "Messiah" complex.

You will have to determine what path you will follow.

By the way, as you do not post your IFT's, your claims regarding your returns have no validity... so to ask folks to take seriously your wisdom based on how well you are doing is a dubious proposition.

The auto-tracker will mask your IFT's appropriately and allow you to establish a track record. It will add credibility and legitimacy to your claims... or undermine your claims should you not do quite so well, but you are wanting to "compete", so that's the game.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Sky Pilot ! - now I understand the format and general view, and I really appreciate you taking the time to explain it so clearly. I will find your thread and give you 5 STARS. Very well put.

In otherwords - be cool and let your thoughts emerge - and if your ideas reveal a consistent profit, then others may follow (which is very cool because you've helped them profit). But don't worry about taking the trophy - because we not here to scrutinize your moves - we are all connected - we're all in this together for the good or bad.

I saw it more like a huge competition where each of us is trying to hit the bull's eye as much as possible. I plan to use the Tracker System in 08 but since I joined the beginning of the 4th quarter - I have indeed made known my ITFs and measured my results against all the funds by using the TSP Financial Utility.

I'll try to avoid telling anyone what to do - my appologies to all - and simply give my game plan. Anyway - let's hope we all have a great week.

 

[SkyPilot]

I look forward to reading your thoughts and insights. As we all pull together, we increase our potential to prosper!

Good luck and good fortune!

 

[Steadygain]

This I Fund is really confusing For years I Fund quotes and my gains were almost identical. For the past few weeks things have really changed. Now if the Fund is up 1% - I may only get an increase of .6% or if it's .8% I might get .3%.

I feel like I'm really getting burned and wonder if it's due to their growing strength versus our weakened dollar?? Now when the Fund is going down I'm afraid 1% will equal 1%.

It seems like everyone on the MB is way more in touch with what's happening and why - so PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS. And if this trend continues should we avoid the I Fund altogether??

 

[charmed855]

This I Fund is really confusing For years I Fund quotes and my gains were almost identical. For the past few weeks things have really changed. Now if the Fund is up 1% - I may only get an increase of .6% or if it's .8% I might get .3%.

Are you referring to the difference between the EFA (chart shown at the bottom of this page) and the Barclay managed MCSI EAFE (I-fund index)? If so, I think you will notice this difference whenever we hit a stretch where the intra-day market is particularly volatile (either to the up side OR down side).

 

[Steadygain]

"When the BULL is making records gains - moving quickly up, he is undoubtedly going to crash down hard along the way TO SHAKE OFF ANYONE HE CAN - BECAUSE THE BULL WANTS TO BREAK NEW GROUND BY HIMSELF AND WHEN HE CHARGING FORWARD HE WANTS TO DO IT ALONE."

That's how I interpret today's actions. I feel like most of the bad press is overblown and the short term action will be profitable.

I hadn't noticed the EFA chart conflicting with the gains/losses until recently - thanks - as long as it goes both ways I guess it's fair.

 

[Guest2]

This I Fund is really confusing For years I Fund quotes and my gains were almost identical. For the past few weeks things have really changed. Now if the Fund is up 1% - I may only get an increase of .6% or if it's .8% I might get .3%.

I feel like I'm really getting burned and wonder if it's due to their growing strength versus our weakened dollar?? Now when the Fund is going down I'm afraid 1% will equal 1%.

It seems like everyone on the MB is way more in touch with what's happening and why - so PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS. And if this trend continues should we avoid the I Fund altogether??

Steadygain, I'm not sure what you've been looking at in the past. I want
to try and help you. Forgive me if I'm giving you information you already
know. If your comparing the I-Fund with the MSCI (EFA), the Dollar and
Mgt. fee's have always played a strong role in the differences between
the two. I've been tracking the difference for two years and have come
up with a few conclusions;

#1- The EFA will only give you a general idea of how well the I-Fund may be doing during Market hours. It's only a rough estimate.
#2- The I-Fund difference reached a YTD high of <1.27%> on 7/26/07.
#3- To stay consistant, the I-Fund had to do better or not as bad as the EFA.
#4- Within two days, the I-Fund did better, YTD difference was +.12%
#5- The goals of the two are to reflect one another. (0.00%).
#6- <negative%> = I-Fund due to perform worse or not as good as the EFA (BAD).
#7- <positive%> = I-Fund due to perform better or not as bad as the EFA (GOOD).
#8- As of 10/12/07 : I-Fund YTD Diffrence <.25%> or <.06 TSP Cents>.
When the difference reaches double digits <.12 cents>/<.26 cents>
they tend to correct themselves soon, in order to stay consistant.

I hope this "Novel" gives you a little more insight. The dollar fluxuates, the Fee's change. Knowing that they affect the I-Fund isn't as important as knowing "what" affect they have and using that information to help make a informed decisions concerning your IFT's.

 

[Steadygain]

:laugh: WOW!! (Laugh). That is the kind of information I was looking for.

6 cents is something I can handle and a few fluctuations are OK - as long as it balances out - which is what I was hoping for.

Thanks a million - I really appreciate your input.

 

[Guest2]

YOUR MOST WELCOME.

DON'T FORGET, IF THE DIFFERENCES STAY THE SAME AND BOTH THE EFA AND I-FUND LOSE .81%,,,, THEN THE I - FUND SHOULD DROP TO $25.63 PER SHARE. IF THE I-FUND DOES BETTER, IT ADDS TO THE DIFFERENCES. (my guess) $25.68 A SHARE FOR A LOSE OF .62% WHICH WILL LEAVE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE I-FUND/EFA AT <.47%> OR <.12 TSP CENTS> DOUBLE DIGITS. GOOD LUCK IN YOUR INVESTMENTS AND HERES HOPING FOR A REBOUND TOMARROW (I DOUBLED UP)

 

[Guest2]

The share prices are published. $25.74
EFA was <.8122%>
I-Fund is <.3870%>
EFA/IFUND Difference = .4252%
YTD Difference = .6986% or .18 TSP cents (BAD)

If the Markets rebounds tomarrow, we might see a larger gain
under the "S-Fund" as this fund has a single digit difference of
.02 TSP cents (GOOD). The DWCP is also further away (%) from
its YTD Closing Price High. (706.82 or -1.14%) The EFA is now at
(84.26 or -.8122%). If your bullish, then the DWCP has more ground
to the upside then the EFA.

If the Market tanks again, the S-Fund might be in better shape then
the I-Fund because the I-Fund could get hit harder in order to drive
the -.18 TSP cents down toward single digits. Worse yet, it could add
to the difference again. Making it likely to have a high end difference
(BAD)

Again, all this does is give me another tidbit to throw in the mix of
trends, Bar Graphs and pie charts. With this knowledge at hand, I
would prefer the S-Fund over the I-Fund for Tuesday. Anyway, we'll
see how it goes. I guess I'm done spouting off. Sorry for being soooo
lengthy. Other then my spreadsheets. I've given all I got.

 

[Steadygain]

As Tom noted this morning - November and December are very strong months for Market Gains and that's why I've openly suggested to put everything in higher risk and leave it there the rest of the year. Since I have been 100% I FUND this week - I feel the best thing I can do is leave it there. The downward slide is a healthy consolidation that will set the stage for 11 & 12/07.

The I Fund has a full 5% advantage over the C Fund and at least 3% over S. I agree that the S Fund is a good pick, but in the end the I Fund should do as well and remain the winner.

In the event the Market would gain back some of the losses of yesterday and today - I believe chasing the G Penny would be a mistake. I feel more comfortable riding it out and may decide to stay in the I Fund throughout the 4th quarter.

 

[Steadygain]

Thought for Today - When the Markets are down the press is bad and when the Markets are good the press is good.

A lot of what we're reading is overblown and the overwhelming odds are that November and December will have raving reports from the same press that is painting a bleak outlook.

So be cool, relax, and chill - things will get better. In the long run however we can not continue at the pace we've seen and our mounting debt in combination with weakening key sectors will bring on a long overdue and much needed RECESSION. But that's cool too - because we have the guaranteed GAIN through G Fund and in the end we can BUY UP EVERYTHING AT MUCH LOWER PRICES.

 

[Steadygain]

The I Fund posted a 5.36 percent gain in September, followed by the C fund, 3.76 percent, the S fund, 2.97 percent, the F fund, 0.78 percent, and the G fund, 0.41 percent.

Will stay with I for awhile.

 

[Steadygain]

Now it possible - but highly improbable - that the Markets will end the day in the RED. The super GURU may have convinced all but a few to to put 100% in G in order to gain a penny. Anyone who put their bag of gold in a higher risk fund will do way better than G.

The way I see it - the harder the ground is packed (which is what happened over the past few days) the better the foundation to take off.

 

[Steadygain]

I Fund Is Over 16 Times The Gain Of G Fund As Day Starts.

 

[Steadygain]

NEWS ALERT!! C and S are in the RED. I is GREEN @ .75%

 

[Griffin]

The I is not in the green (the EFA is but it's not subject to a FV) - the I will get FV'd hard tonight if the current situation does not reverse itself.

The technical situation is breaking down quickly.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks my friend. The EFA seems to coincide fairly well with I as a general rule and most often it is the Fund Quotes this site offers - I'm looking at here and there. But you have an excellent point which reflects how closely our Markets influence and affect the European Market. A slight reversal appears to be in the making - but the dirt needs a little more packing and that's fine with me.

 

[Minnow]

yo steady, if you want a most accurate picture of the I on a more up to the minute basis, try www.mscibarra.com -- and then look at the EAFE --this is the best "ticker" for the "I".

sucks for me since I can't get past my gov't computer firewalls to get to this ticker ... oh well, 350z and weatherweenie and those guys usually keep us abreast of the estimates pretty well on his "I" fund thread (but you already know that).