Steadygain's Account Talk

[CorMaGa34]

Hi Steadygain,

I seldom get involved in the day-to-day chat, but I thought I should let you know how much I enjoy and learn from your comments and analysis.

Don't know who thinks you are black, yellow or white, that to me is not important, the perspective you have about life and the challenge from your teacher shared with us is interesting and says a lot about you.

I only wish we could stick to the mission as Tom states it, while having fun, sharing knowledge and overall experiences that have made us better people. Those who think have the right to correct spelling, grammar, punctuation, and criticize others for stuff like that deserve to be working as State teachers while forgetting that we all work for the same Government and get our paychecks from the same source. Likewise, inuendos in respect to race, religion or creed should stay out of the forum, unless you are looking for trouble.

Anyway, I like your posts and thought you should know it.

CorMaga34

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you my friend - and I hope all of us find happiness and peace.

I moved to I Fund by COB today - because of UpTrend's advise. I may vary with some of his future decisions (but I will not criticise him if my moves vary from his). Anyway - for today I think his plan makes a lot of sense.

 

[Steadygain]

As I noted on Friday: The other Funds (I and S) gave a better profit - but the C Fund still gave a nice little reward.

 

[Steadygain]

Today's activity has been consistent throughout the 4th quarter. The up days are often followed with down ones and nothing seems for certain. The 2 big things in our favor is the Fed cut (which I can't help but think will be .25%) and the tremendous high seasonality of early November.

I have no regrets being fully invested in I Fund and based on its performance so far I am confident it will bring the biggest gain over the next week - so I will stay in place instead of selling low (taking a loss) and hoping for a bigger gain elsewhere.

Early November should be a good time for anyone willing to take the risk.

 

[Steadygain]

Will the FED CUT do anything to change the overall US Economy? What I mean by this question is would continued significant .50 basis cuts by the FED over the next few years REALLY MAKE OUR ECONOMY STRONGER - or would it make it weaker?

From my perspective - making money easier to get does nothing to change the overall dynamics that are causing the strains on numerous key sectors. I would see future large cuts as a hopeful magic trick - or as a desperate attempt - to delay a huge correction. We have been riding this extended BULL RUN for years - and no one wants to get out now. It is only because of this huge determination of the masses to enjoy another rally that I see opportunity for big gains (at least in the short run).

If the FED does not make a cut - That may send a much stronger message that would actually boost overall confidence even more.

Would love to hear your views on this.

 

[fedgolfer]

If the FED does not make a cut - That may send a much stronger message that would actually boost overall confidence even more.

Would love to hear your views on this.

I can see how it may give temporary confidence. But the fact is, is that the banks/lenders are hurting... if they do not cut... it is guaranteed we'll see more writedown surprises from the banks in q4 and beyond. The Fed has already said and acted that it is forward looking. Our service side is moving, but the our goods is hurting and transportation indicators intimate we're already in a recession in that industry, which is also a leading indicator. Fed has to stop more bleeding before it spreads.

 

[RPM]

Fed has to stop more bleeding before it spreads.

You know, other people on the board also talk about inflation, but except for gas, I personnally have not felt it in many other areas. (If you can find and go to an Asian grocery store for food, everything there is cheaper than Safeway )

Also, wouldn't the rate cut, if it keeps coming, eventually get the mortgage rate to fall to a level that the people in subprime can refinance without loosing their homes? Except for those who took out all the equity or bought in at the peak, house prices can still absorb some more fall without hitting the buy price, since the rise was spectacular (at least in the Bay Area)!

 

[Steadygain]

Also, wouldn't the rate cut, if it keeps coming, eventually get the mortgage rate to fall to a level that the people in subprime can refinance without loosing their homes?

I wish I could copy and paste a recent article that stressed the trillions of dollars the big players made on the housing market, and how small the billions of publicized LOSS are in comparison.

The mortage rates are still fantastic compared to houses I bought since 1980 - which was always a fixed rate at 8.125% until about the past 7 years when rates went down. I'm currently locked in at 5%.

I honestly don't mean to sound cold hearted, or uncaring - but many people bought houses way beyond their means because they were driven by greed and were thoroughly convinced they'd get a huge profit selling it to someone else. Most of the people having to foreclose did not take the time to factor in the cost or think things through. Lessons like this hit hard and cause great difficulty - but this will likely not be repeated for the one going through it. In the same light Americans are now facing a 950 Billion credit card debt - which will likely draw a lot of attention in the near future. Anyway - back to your question: I believe the overwhelming majority of foreclosures are due to the buyers determination to have the biggest and the best - without taking the time to plan things through and in the long run they'd be better off learning a hard lesson. For the minority of people you're referring to - I hope them the best; especially if the house really fits their needs and is a practical move.

 

[Frixxxx]

...I honestly don't mean to sound cold hearted, or uncaring - but many people bought houses way beyond their means because they were driven by greed and were thoroughly convinced they'd get a huge profit selling it to someone else. Most of the people having to foreclose did not take the time to factor in the cost or think things through. Lessons like this hit hard and cause great difficulty - but this will likely not be repeated for the one going through it. ......

Here, here Steady, this is the norm out here in California.

Buy a house $450,000

5% loan payment: 2415.70

But you can only afford 1400.00 a month. Well, no problem, get a 1.25% loan. What's that you say? 1.25% sign me up!

But wait:

$450,000

monthly payment 1400.00
actual payment 2800.00 (they rate the loan at 7.1% - predator)

Where does that other 1400 go? To the principal. Now that house mortgage is $451,400.

Refinance three years later. Well, now you have to refi a house that has now dropped 20% in value (360,000) but you owe 480,000 because you weren't paying the necessary amount to even maintain the house value.

THIS is the issue. You can't, unless you get an inheritance from a rich relative!

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you for that enlightenment. I forgot all about CA and many other areas throughout the country where this situation would be true. Even living modestly in many of these areas does not make housing any more affordable.

My own modest lifestyle and experiences blind me from many of these truths. The only house I've had worth that kind of money has more than doubled in value over the past 10 years and will likely more than double again before I downsize after retirement. Also I've been able to put down at least 20% so I never heard of these gimicks. I feel the underlying problem in CA is not having cheap money - it is the underlying system that forces homeowners to burn the candle at both ends just to get by.

If it's any consolation - you can have $300 dollars absolutely free. The credit card I use gives you 5% on every dollar you spend on groceries or gas (no matter what store or station). You also get 5% at any pharmacy. Simply use the card for all your normal purchaces (instead of cash) and you'll get $50 dollars a month. As long the monthly bill is fully paid you don't spend a penny more - and get back $300. My brother told me about this several years ago - I found the credit card that offers this on Google and it's really paid off.

 

[budnipper1]

If it's any consolation - you can have $300 dollars absolutely free. The credit card I use gives you 5% on every dollar you spend on groceries or gas (no matter what store or station). You also get 5% at any pharmacy. Simply use the card for all your normal purchaces (instead of cash) and you'll get $50 dollars a month. As long the monthly bill is fully paid you don't spend a penny more - and get back $300. My brother told me about this several years ago - I found the credit card that offers this on Google and it's really paid off.

I must be missing something or maybe I'm just dense, but I don't understand your numbers. You said $300 dollars free, but you also said "$50 a month", which would total $600/per year. That's where I'm puzzled. Enlighten me, please?

 

[Steadygain]

Typically by using the card for your normal purchases it averages to $50 cash back per month (if you want it on a monthly basis). Many simply wait and have them send a $300 check - which is the maximum per year.

Once you have the $300 - it is more profitable to use another card (say Discover for instance) for the rest of the year.

 

[Steadygain]

Last night I saw Discover also offers 5% back on gas and many other things. I would think that's another $300.

Well I am in I Fund - which was spurred by a little nudging from Uptrend. This quarter my subconscious seems absorbed with the I Fund, but like an idiot I bailed out to safety and missed the 2% Gain it recently gave. This is why I stressed earlier - it would probably be better for us to just go 100% and stay there. Anyway the European Markets look good today and yesterday's loss was minimal. Although my comrade has gone on to other pastures (and I hope he does well) - I will stay put for awhile.

Birtchtree - I went 100% C Fund as a tribute to you and got a nice little reward. Welcome back.

Peace to all - and many happy gains.

 

[Steadygain]

Immediate prediction (12% style). THE MARKETS ARE ALL GOING TO GO WAY UP TOMORROW - SPURRED BY THE FED (AT LEAST FROM THE MEDIA'S PERSPECTIVE). THE I FUND WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST GAIN OF ALL FUNDS THIS WEEK.

 

[Birchtree]

Remarkable and all I'm looking for is an NYSE composite of 10,301.49 - that will remove the A/D line from negative contention. Currently we are at 10,301.49 minus 10,245.11 = 56.38 points to go. I'm also watching the Utility Index which had a new all-time high of 535.72, we are now at 531.13 with only 4.59 points to go to match the previous high.

 

[Steadygain]

It's amazing how closely our emotions are connected to the charts.

Everyone who is fully invested - LOOK AT THE CHARTS - and we'll all get high together. Ohhh yeal - that's how I like it!

 

[Griffin]

It's amazing how closely our emotions are connected to the charts.

Everyone who is fully invested - LOOK AT THE CHARTS - and we'll all get high together. Ohhh yeal - that's how I like it!

Are you today's arbitarary move up is not compensating for yesterday's arbitrary move down? :nuts:

I only mention this because we have yet to see it get above the same resistance established Monday.

 

[Steadygain]

I am mainly aware of the moment - THAT WE ARE ALL IN A GIANT CLAM - BREATHING IN BUBBLES - AND BLOWING OUT SILK - all of us floating on a velvet cloud.

C - gave a little gain on Monday
I - gave a little loss yesterday
Today I'm getting a sizeable gain - so I'm way above where I was Monday

 

[Birchtree]

If the S fund closes strongly above $20.90 that will tickle my Elmo. Then it's on to $21.25 for the surprise move up. The C fund should close near $17.45. And then push $17.60 tomorrow.

 

[SkyPilot]

I am mainly aware of the moment - THAT WE ARE ALL IN A GIANT CLAM - BREATHING IN BUBBLES - AND BLOWING OUT SILK - all of us floating on a velvet cloud.

Dude! I'm diggin' the vibe