Short term market outlook

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It's gotten very difficult (not that it was evereasy). Amidst all the reports this week, I am having a very hard time understanding what is keeping the dollar from dropping. In fact it's gaining strength...:%.

I think it's because demand for dollars is strong and our debt is continuing to be financed. 10 year TIPS went well today. http://tinyurl.com/ytbax

That means inflation is a concern.

It's taken awhile for oil prices to begin having an effect on the economy (if in fact the negative report this week on retail sales is a good indicator of this). If oil doesn't get back down under 50$ (you would think a stronger dollar would have this effect) and stay there for awhile, we could be in for a difficult ride for some time.
 
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What a day in the markets:^. Breathing a sigh of relief that the bleeding has stopped, paused or what?? Anyway, the good earnings are kicking in and if the market manipulators would stay away for a while, this could mean a solid rally should take place.:dude:
 
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Check it out -- lots of people, people whose opinions I have come to respect -- are moving 100% I-fund cob today, that is, effective tomorrow. Is there something I don't know?

Dave
 
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Dave---

I've noticed that on a good day with the US markets, the Asian market tends to do well that evening. This could also set up the European market for the next day as well. Of course,the monkey in the works is how the dollar does against other currencies. This has a big impact on the I fund.
 
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Dave M wrote:
Check it out -- lots of people, people whose opinions I have come to respect -- are moving 100% I-fund cob today, that is, effective tomorrow. Is there something I don't know?

Dave
Click to expand...
IMO, the I fund is too uncertain these days. If I cant figure the direction of the dollar I generally stay away from the I fund. Im not the type to go in one day and out the next.
 
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IBD Fan wrote:
Dave M wrote:
Check it out -- lots of people, people whose opinions I have come to respect -- are moving 100% I-fund cob today, that is, effective tomorrow. Is there something I don't know?

Dave
Click to expand...
IMO, the I fund is too uncertain these days. If I cant figure the direction of the dollar I generally stay away from the I fund. Im not the type to go in one day and out the next.
Click to expand...

My trading the I fund latley has been a whipsaw for sure... yesterday a sell sign today a buy.... The dollar is above 84 and trending up so I will stay away from the I fund for awhile.... the C and F fundare the only buy signs I have "the F fund was down today as the market rallied.... Look at your weekly charts to see some upside the last 2 weeks... Very wide trading range below is a weekly chart of the dow
 
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Tom,

It seemed that you are right about your assessment on the c fund.









C
S
I

HIGHEST
13.1
14.75
16.04

CURRENT
12.6
14
15.3

DIFFERENCE
0.5
0.75
0.74

With what I am seeing here, the c fund seems to be bouncing better than the s/i fund. However, looking at this in another angle, the S/I have more room to grow before they reach their high for the year.
 
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I tend to agree with Mr TSP Tom analysis about the C fund - we shall see. I am still 70 C and 30 S. considering moving some to I but dont want to jump in after two good up moves in the I.:)
 
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IBDcurrent outlook for 4 May:Market in confirmed rally.

Excerpts: The major indexes opened higher and ascended throughout the day before finishing virtually at their session highs. Equity traders shrugged off crude oil's jump back above $50 a barrel and wild action in the long end of the Treasury bond market.

[align=left]


The Nasdaq rose 1.5%, buttressed by gains in tech sectors such as Internet, networking, chips and telecom. The tech-heavy index also got help from other sectors. Financial, industrial, transport and even insurance stocks posted decent gains. No wonder gainers beat losers by more than a 2-to-1 ratio.
Volume grew 4% to 1.95 billion shares. It was also the Nasdaq's third gain on heavier trade in four sessions. That's a positive sign that institutions are wading back into the water.[/align]
Wednesday's strong gains on heavier volume served as a follow-through, confirming a new rally attempt that began three sessions ago with a bullish reversal Friday. As this column noted Tuesday, the large-cap S&P 500 staged a mild follow-through Friday, the seventh day of a new rally attempt.

:):^:dude::D

I am breathing a sigh of relief aftert being in the market for what seems to be a long time since 15 March. Now am ready to ridesome big surfafter getting bounced around in the turf.
 
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Hang in there. We (the TSP funds, not the major market indices) seem to have bottomed on April 28th and have been climbingsince then; unsteadily, but climbing. I expect the chop will continue but with the ups slightly exceeding the downs.

I think I might commit a small chunk and let it ride.

Dave
 
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Mr TSP Tom, I am still with you and holding on to my stock position. Although I am disappointed - thinking the market was primed for a move up today and especially since oil dropped so much. But one day does not a market make and I will wait for another day. Does anyonethink the marketgot spooked today being the eve of Friday the 13th?

IBD current market outlook 12 May 05:
"Confirmed rally seeing some distribution."

Excerpts:

Until this week it could be noted that all those sell-offs occurred before the S&P 500 followed through on a new rally April 29. Now the market shows two higher-volume declines in the last three sessions.

[align=left]


The Dow shed 1.1%. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) weighed on the blue chip index, falling 2%. The world's largest retailer said first-quarter profit rose 10% to 55 cents a share, missing views by a penny.
The company also predicted Q2 earnings of 63 cents to 67 cents a share, below estimates of 70 cents. [/align]
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Corp. dropped 2.47 to 54.82 in above-average trade, hurting the Dow even more. The oil conglomerate formally appealed a $3.5 billion punitive-damage award in the Alabama Supreme Court, claiming the state improperly turned a contract dispute into a fraud action.

Oil prices were the bigger culprit for Exxon. Crude fell 3.8% to $48.54 a barrel, the lowest close since Feb. 18.

Given recent trends, you might expect a steep drop in oil prices to boost stocks. That didn't happen this time, partly because of the heavy influence major oil stocks like Exxon have on the Dow, S&P 500 and other indexes.

:s:(

IMHO Nothing really substantial caused the market to drop today. What has changed from yesterday? Market still looks good overall, and the economy seems to be heading for a higher growth rate.
 
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Funds of cyclicals with oil, materials and etc. took a hit, because oil :{. Gotta chase away the bears!

See Pic!!!! Rgds :D Spaf
 
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Spaf wrote:
Funds of cyclicals with oil, materials and etc. took a hit, because oil :{. Gotta chase away the bears!

See Pic!!!! Rgds :D Spaf
Click to expand...
Hi Spaf,

What are bears afraid off so they can be chased away??
 
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Spaf! those horses are beautifyl! Is that a photograph?

Using an attachment would be the solution for what is determined to be oversized, isn't it.... So when we post an image& see it takes too much room, make it an attachment,.. like the polar bear & penguins.
 
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grandma wrote:
Spaf! those horses are beautifyl! Is that a photograph?

Using an attachment would be the solution for what is determined to be oversized, isn't it.... So when we post an image& see it takes too much room, make it an attachment,.. like the polar bear & penguins.
Click to expand...
I like animals!

My like ratio between animals and humans is about 99:1. Now if you get into Labador retrievers it's 100% hands down.

I save pictures to my hard drive a lot of times. So I have to use attachment rather than a link. Sorry, the bear amd penguins were big. But I could just see that littlepenguin running like _ _ _ _ ,afterwards. You know it probably, isn't the first time he did it!

Rgds :D Spaf
 
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Grandma

Here is a short term market outlook..................Animal style!
 
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