Short term market outlook

[Guest]

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Interesting enough the biggest bear markets in our history started in the month of march...

1930

1972

2000

and 2005. :^

 

[Montana]

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Historically, March is the 5th best month of the year for the S&P, averaging 1% per year, and a 57.3% gain overall for the past 54 years. Doesn't mean it hasen't had loosing years(-10.2% in 1980). Reason I enjoy this forum, is to listen to everyone's opinion and try to decide how to make some short term gains. I do think you're right that we're going to have a downturn, but exactly when it begins is the $64,000 question( for those ofyou that are old enough to remember that TV show). I just think if we're going to scratch out any gains for the year, the next couple of months and the end of the year(November & December) will be our best bets. I fear the summer is going to be brutal under current conditions. Thanks for your input Dr. D.

 

[Show-me]

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Coolhand,

I can't get the audio link to work. Is it me or the link?


Update: Never mind It just loaded out of the blue took at least 10 minutes. Thanks!

 

[IBD Fan]

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tsptorture wrote:

IBD Fan wrote:

I like to live in the moment - we are in a "rally" mode. The problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets. So on the other side of the coin, my philisophy is to enjoy the positives whileI can.

I will stick with the market pulse indicator in IBD and stay on the "rally" for now. It was difficult jumping back into the equities after getting out with the big dips, but so far this year, if I stayed with my last year's allocationplan of 50-50 CS I would be ahead even after this past week.

Again the big unknown this time around is the oil issue - will it cause enough of a damper to throw the rally off? Or will it go away for another time?

Enjoy the upsides when they happen!:dude::^

Market will be down week, but not sure how long. Look for it to be down big Mon. then if Tues. is flat or down slightly, look to jump back in. If not, wait for a fairly flat day and jump back in. That's about all I can do for ya. Just purely going by the numbers. I'll leave the analysis to the big boys.

Good luck,

TT

What makes you say this week will be down? what numbers are you looking at?

 

[Guest]

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We are in consolidation mode again. We is "the market" BTW. Keep making new highs, but then drop back. High volumes are not there to continue a rally. If Monday is down on high volume, we'll be ina MT market again. I mean bear market again. If Monday is up on high volume, the bull market is back. If low volume, play the dips and peaks.

That's all. If you want more info, I'll PM you....................just kidding

 

[Guest]

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For all those that have been here awhile, remember mlk_man's orginal system of buying at .02 below the 63-day moving average and selling at .03 above it in consolidating markets?

Just an FYI..............

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

For all those that have been here awhile, remember mlk_man's orginal system of buying at .02 below the 63-day moving average and selling at .03 above it in consolidating markets?

Just an FYI..............

It is like you are inside his skin...

BTW: Tom pointed out that system greatly underperformed the market.

Buyer beware:s.

 

[tsptalk]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Buyer beware:s.

I believe he is agreeing with you Dr_D. The market is near the high end of the consolidation, isn't that what you are saying torture?

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

I believe he is agreeing with you Dr_D. The market is near the high end of the consolidation, isn't that what you are saying torture?

He could be but old habits are hard to break........

I will put a cork in it. :^

 

[Guest]

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Yes you are correct Tom. I don't remember you saying that system underperformed the market? I believe it was said that system wouldn't work in a rallying market or a down market? Must of read it wrong..........................:shock:

 

[Guest]

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I will leave you alone my little ratty friend.

You are like oil to my water.

But I love ya anyway.

 

[Guest]

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TY my little lemming fri..fri...fri...frivolous one.........:%

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

TY my little lemming fri..fri...fri...frivolous one.........:%

:xEnjoy the rest of your weekend...go get em on Monday.

 

[Guest]

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Hong Kong will tell the story...............:^

For anyone that doesn't know what that means, since about 2000, Hong Kong and US markets have prettymuch mimic'd each other. Since we have to make changes before noon EST, Hong Kong gives a pretty good indicator of how the market will end that day.

 

[Guest]

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Rut roh, futures are up as well as Hong Kong and Australia in early trading.................

Bull time?

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Interesting enough the biggest bear markets in our history started in the month of march...

1930

1972

2000

and 2005. :^

That's interesting. I wonder if there's anyting to it.



Dr_Dubious wrote:

Rolo wrote:

Hey Dub, when do you think the real asset sector will top?

What about energy/fuels, and utilities?

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptorture wrote:

Rut roh, futures are up as well as Hong Kong and Australia in early trading.................

Bull time?

Those markets hadn't had a chance to react to Friday's big up day in US stocks. This is their day. I don't think it will be too big of a surprise to see the momentum continue at least in the morning. The herd read the good news in the paperthis weekend and are ready to buy. The first hour"emotional money" may not be correct.

Watch the last 1/2 hour.

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

The first hour"emotional money" may not be correct.

Watch the last 1/2 hour.

Good point!

 

[IBD Fan]

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tsptorture wrote:

We are in consolidation mode again. We is "the market" BTW. Keep making new highs, but then drop back. High volumes are not there to continue a rally. If Monday is down on high volume, we'll be ina MT market again. I mean bear market again. If Monday is up on high volume, the bull market is back. If low volume, play the dips and peaks.

That's all. If you want more info, I'll PM you....................just kidding

So far so good - Australia, Hong Kong and Japan indexes all closed up on Monday their time:dude:. Its a good sign for the US markets. It sure is good for the I fund.The dollar was trading flat in Japan and Euro. Now its wait and see for the US market.:shock:

 

[Guest]

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Hong Kong technically does not have a government right now. Do not know what that means but it must be good?

Japan is in recession and their stock market has gone up the last eight days after that was announced.

Hate to be a broken record - nothing makes sense to me.

I can not invest in a market like this with the TSP fund. If the market goes up, I just got to sit on my hands. That noon cut off thing holds me back.

Like rolling the dice....

Listened to Jim "Blowhard" Kramer Friday show - he said stop losses are for fools.

Please do not follow that advice. This is the guy that was bullish the whole way through the last bear market. Every day was "I call the bottom" market goes down 5%, "I call the bottom - I bless you to buy stocks", next day market down hard "OK we shook out the wimps - buy stocks".

I have been pounding the guy like really hard with e-mails. I got connected to his show and they hang up on me. He is #2 Fleece artist - behind my chimp Bubbles.

Two days after he bought SBL it went down 10%. He bought SIRU at $8.40 and rode it down to $6. He is entertainment!!!!!!!! Rode Lucent down from $80 to $2 and sold at $2 bought back at $3.50 it is just above $3 now. When he buys - short it. It works like a charm. Half of the hedge fund guys do the same thing. He buys, we short. He sells, we go long. Actually I love the guy. He has bought me a couple houses. Hmmm - thank you Blowhard.

http://www.itulip.com/awards.htm#Cramer