Short term market outlook

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Hi Spaf and Grandma, liked those pics. Yes I agree a stampede of bulls will chase the bears away .... but that is more an after effect. Sorry I have been on a trip this last week and sorta a way from the market but what I was looking forwas a trigger to make the bears go away (or a trigger to cause the bulls to buy) and apparently the trigger was pulled earlier in the week.:^:dude:

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Update on the IBD market outlook:

20 May 05: Market in confirmed rally

Excerpts:

The overall market has shown improvement in recent weeks: bigger gains on heavy volume, slight pullbacks on light trade and positive reversals. Unlike months past when distribution days seemed to occur every two or three days, the past week saw no heavy selling.

The most recent distribution day occurred on the S&P 500 May 13, largely the result of a rotation out of commodity-tied sectors like energy and metals. As noted in Friday's column, leadership is shifting to techs, biotechs and retail.

**********************

I may want to consider shifting more into the S fund from the C fund. I am still at 70 C and 30 S. Cheers to all who stuck with the long side of the marketthis past week:dude::^

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

IBD fan,

My bet it's another week like last week, straight for the clouds. That would definitely create some anxiety for the wait and see shelter folks. We need to continue with the wall of worry. And just in time to deliver will be Fed members out this week making noise. I think they are setting up a decoy maneuver, totally planned. They are trying to talk the bond market into higher rates to slow the mortgage industry. This won't work-the bond vigilantes already are saying inflation is receding. June will be a long month and I think the Fed is already behind the curve and has paused. Regards

Dennis

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Birch, I am in synch with you - I think it will be another up week and until anything major happens the market should be on an generalupward climb at least until the next FOMC meeting. It appears the market could be moving on the rumor that interest rates increase will stall - given the economy is moving along at the pace that the Fedsdeem to be acceptable.

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Excuse me Mr TSP Tom, I happen to agree with your assessment of the market - its moving up on the rumor- the interest rate increase will stall.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Great minds ...

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

And good Luck!:^

 

[Mike]

imported post

I was very surprised to see the net redemption number come in so high last week - that really contradicts the bull/bear sentiment survey. Tom, are investors talking out of both sides of their mouths, or what?

Actions speak louder than words.

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Perhaps some investors were waiting to pull funds out of equity into the real estate market and found the week with rising market a good time to pulll out. This has been a long time coming (market not this good).

 

[James48843]

imported post

I think TSPTALK is on to something "at this juncture", as Bush 41 used to say.

I'm normally someone who rarely makes adjustments- preferring to maximize risk and reward -

I was 35% C, 40% S, and 30% I, but today I shifted 40% out into G , and balanced the rest in C AND S.

I see possible waves in the near term, as oil has shot back up and we should see additional ripples through the market onver the next quarter- I think more pension problems in the airlines, and other sectors will shake the markets a little.

And of course, the war continues.

 

[James48843]

imported post

Here I am , two days later, wondering why I moved out into the G fund with 40% of my money, when we get continued indications of positive action.



Maybe it is just too much up to quick for me, but a couple days ago I was convinced that the market was about to take a hit. Like the moderator- I now find my self with quite a bit in G fund (granted, not the 100% that he is in), at 40%, and more good news out of the market, and a nice up day again.



Just goes to show ya--- if it was easy to make the right calls, everybody would be rich.



I'm glad I am 60% in stocks, (C&S with a littel in I) and 40% in G. and rethinking where I am again.

 

[Shaggy]

imported post

I wouldn't. I'm like you I feel stupid for moving out over the last week but just because it didn't happen today doesn't mean it will not tomarrow. Tom is sometimes early in his predictions but I believe it is just a matter of time. Like you I am not totally out but would really hate to buy back in now (High) and then have it tank. Then I would feel even more stupid.

 

[Mike]

imported post

That and your TSP balance would take a nasty hit. :shock:

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

I’m not sure if anyone cares, but this TSP delay is about to drive me crazy. I hate it! Hate it! Hate it!



I frantically, yesterday, 17 Jun, just a few minutes before noon EST, which is 6:00 p.m. Italy time, made an interfund and allocation transfer from 100% G to 50 C/50 I. TSP says that the effective date is 17 Jun. However, when I checked my balance this morning I only got my payroll contributions. That s__ks! I had a strong hunch that the G fund was due to pay the penny. But, I saw the market near noon and thought I’d better make the big move. In the end I didn’t make squat.



I know that there has been plenty of talk about the lousy length of time it takes TSP to make transactions, so I’m not bringing anything new to the market talk, but I needed to vent to somebody.



I guess the effective date just meansTSP did the paper work that day, but it doesn’t include what the market ends with that day. Damn it is tough learning. Now I get to think all weekend about weather to stay or bale. My thoughts are that now I’ve bought in way too high, we might have one more strong week, but I agree with Tom that it will turn, just when. I’m wide open to any positive advice from the members.



Steve

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

One more question. Is this the proper thread to make such a post? Should I open my own thread? What threads am I not suppose to butt into? Probably personnel account market moves, but I just want to be sure.

Thanks

 

[Guest]

imported post

Gallo I will start one for you.