Short term market outlook

[IBD Fan]

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When nothing makes sense in your realm of strategies, then maybe its time to flow with the tide? You have the most astute knowlegde of trading but it appears it just needs fine tuneing at times like this.

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD Fan wrote:

tsptorture wrote:

We are in consolidation mode again. We is "the market" BTW. Keep making new highs, but then drop back. High volumes are not there to continue a rally. If Monday is down on high volume, we'll be ina MT market again. I mean bear market again. If Monday is up on high volume, the bull market is back. If low volume, play the dips and peaks.

That's all. If you want more info, I'll PM you....................just kidding

So far so good - Australia, Hong Kong and Japan indexes all closed up on Monday their time:dude:. Its a good sign for the US markets. It sure is good for the I fund.The dollar was trading flat in Japan and Euro. Now its wait and see for the US market.:shock:

and the European markets mostly opened in the Green! Looking good omen for the Us market.

 

[IBD Fan]

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Didnt like what I saw just before 12 EST, Asia Markets closed up, Euro was mixed, dollar was down and the EAFE was down. tells me the EAFE was too much dependent on the dollar move. Bailed to 100% G effective tomorrow.

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

tsptorture wrote:

Rut roh, futures are up as well as Hong Kong and Australia in early trading.................

Bull time?

Those markets hadn't had a chance to react to Friday's big up day in US stocks. This is their day. I don't think it will be too big of a surprise to see the momentum continue at least in the morning. The herd read the good news in the paperthis weekend and are ready to buy. The first hour"emotional money" may not be correct.

Watch the last 1/2 hour.

I agree, I believe Hong Kong closed up .3% so the C fund should be close to that. The Dow and the S&P did sell off around closing, makes it harder to pick tomorrow. Just waitingfor TSP to update. I fund is looking tempting though.

 

[coolhand]

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tsptorture wrote:

I fund is looking tempting though.

It is. Problem I see is that there is very littlenews this week, aside from Friday's Trade Balance, that will move the market much. Not enough reward to justify risk.

Trade balance is expected to be higher by the way. If that's the case, and I suspectit will be,the dollar will probably drop again. But if the international market doesn't move higher it just tempers any gains. Then again, maybe a higher trade balance moves more cash to foreign equities. Hmmmmm. Have to wait till Thursday morning and see how it goes.

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

Just waitingfor TSP to update. I fund is looking tempting though.

No update on TSP.gov yet, but got my confirmation.

G: 10.76 no penny

F: 10.46 up .01

C: 13.10 up .04

S: 14.80 up .05

I: 15.97 down .05

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD Fan wrote:

Didnt like what I saw just before 12 EST, Asia Markets closed up, Euro was mixed, dollar was down and the EAFE was down. tells me the EAFE was too much dependent on the dollar move. Bailed to 100% G effective tomorrow.

Meant to say dollar was up. Looks like the drop in the I fund was 5 or 6 cents. Anyway got out of the I fund. IMHO if in the next month, the I fund is almost totally dependent on the dollar, then I think there is more updside potential then downside so decided to pull out. Ddint want to chance jumping back into C or S at these prices. Will be sitting out for the rest of the week as I will be travelling.

The latest IBD market pulse indicator:

8 Mar: Market in confirmed rally.

Excerpts:

"Mergers, scandal, a big-name tech making waves — Monday brought a little of everything for investors. Above all, it brought a new batch of healthy gains for the market.

The Nasdaq surged 0.9%, thanks to a fast start. Volume rose 7%, just what you want to see on a strong up day for the index.

While the market's rally now has six weeks under its belt, small and midcaps have provided much of the fuel.

The Nasdaq's Monday gain finally propelled it above its 50-day moving average. That marked the first time the composite closed above that level since Jan. 4.

[align=left]


The small-cap S&P 600, the first of the indexes to notch a follow-through day, closed flat in light trading. The index marked an all-time high Friday. The midcap S&P 400 kept rolling, up 0.5%.
The Dow also ended virtually flat, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.3%. NYSE volume receded as some stocks digested their gains."[/align]

 

[IBD Fan]

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Hi all, I am back from my one week trip. Here's an update on the IBD market pulse:

9 Mar: Market in a confirmed rally

10-14 Mar: Conrimed rally seeing some distribution

Before this morning the market looked bleak and I thought about staying in 100%G for the week. After the morning check on the markets, I decided to jump back into equities. As of 11 AM EST 14 Mar I went 50% C 30% S 20 % I. Liked the news about increasing the production of oil to keep the prices down. Think the rise in dollar is short lived but cautious about the potential fordecrease in the dollar. Chose more precentage in the C fund because ofits potential to increase more under these circumstances (difficult oil market favors larger companies).

Good luck to all

 

[IBD Fan]

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Update on IBD market pulse:

15 - 16 Mar: Confirmed rally seeing some distribution

17 Mar: Confirmed rally under pressure

excerpts from todays comment on market activity:

It was a busy news day. A new high for crude oil futures and talk about a future interest-rate hike that would be bigger than recent quarter-point jumps overshadowed upward revisions in industrial production data and an unexpected rise in housing starts.

Meanwhile, the earnings picture, which had been rosy so far this year, darkened after General Motors slashed its full-year profit outlook. The longtime Dow Jones industrial average component collapsed 4.71, or 14%, to 29.01, good for a 10-year low.

Larger-cap indexes fell the hardest Wednesday. The price-weighted Dow sank 1% with all but five of 30 components losing ground.

[align=left]


The S&P 500 fell 0.8% while the Nasdaq slumped 0.9%. The Nasdaq is 8% off its 52-week high and is less than 8 points away from undercutting its January low.
Volume on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq increased from the previous session, an unmistakable sign that institutional investors eagerly took profits and raised cash.[/align]
The small-cap S&P 600 slumped 0.5% for its sixth drop in the past eight sessions. Despite that slump, the leading index is only 3% off its high.

What's disturbing, however, is that the 600 racked up its fifth distribution day over the past seven sessions. (The 600 also marked a distribution day on Tuesday, resulting in seven higher-volume declines for that index in the past four weeks. Precise volume data for that session was unavailable at the time of Tuesday's newspaper production.)

My conclusion is I am holding on and holding my breath at 50C, 30S, 20I. Will wait and see for a short while more whether I make a change out of equities. After a 300 pt drop in the DOW in two weeks, the market is due for some good news and turn of events upward. Seems like externals are driving the market direction - mostly oil (internals seem still OK).

 

[Mike]

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Work's been extremely busy lately so I haven't been on this forum much lately. Tonight, it's finally slow - for the first time on this eight-night tour (and this is my last of eight!).

D - thanks for the suggestion on a natural gas fund... I'll look into it and see what all exists there and compare their loads / fees / returns / minimums. Doesn't seem likely I could find anything better than $50 initial + $50 / mo. I'd probably have to do that directly with them though (I'll venture a guess that they have a website to do business with them directly) - it wouldn't be feasible to do it and eat fees on scottrade or somewhere else (unless this fund is an NTF).

In another attempt at diversification, I'll also be looking for emerging market funds... guess my four days off will be pretty well filled. :shock:

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

D - thanks for the suggestion on a natural gas fund... I'll look into it and see what all exists there and compare their loads / fees / returns / minimums. Doesn't seem likely I could find anything better than $50 initial + $50 / mo. I'd probably have to do that directly with them though (I'll venture a guess that they have a website to do business with them directly) - it wouldn't be feasible to do it and eat fees on scottrade or somewhere else (unless this fund is an NTF).

No worries! We may not get along very well. But when I recommend something it is well thought out. I felt that was the best for your situation and your investment desires. Hopefully it works out for you. I truly do. I want everyone on this board to do well. Yes, just give them a call. They will be more then happy to help you out. It is a mutual fund. You will have the management fee. Build up the base and keep learning then look into trading. Remember the action/reaction thing. Figure out the reaction to the action. This oil thing is not a short term problem. Commodities bull markets last 17 years. We are only two years in.

Good luck.

P.S. I appreciate you giving me a "thanks". That made my day!

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD market pulse update.

18 - 22 Mar 05: Confirmed rally under pressure

23 Mar: S&P 600 barely hanging on, rest of market facing correction

Made an IFT at 11:50AM today for 70% C, 30% S (from 50C, 30S, 20I). Its been a tough period but am hanging in there. It amazing how a few selected "words" can turn this fickle market. But I see hope on the horizon when crude oil prices come down like they are today at this time.

 

[IBD Fan]

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What a fresh breath of "green" air today was after many days of "red" air. Could this be the start of a new rally? Will have to wait and see.

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD changed its market outlook today:

Market trying to rally.

After being on the major indexes facing correction for many days.

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD market outlook comments - excerpts for todays action:

"The rising number of strong performers — many of them newer names — bodes well for a market trying to find its footing. Wednesday marked the sixth day of a rally attempt for the market.

A big up day for the S&P 500, S&P 600 or Nasdaq in heavy volume would offer a follow-through day for the rally try.:shock:

Oil prices continued to weigh on the market. Crude started lower, then pared its losses after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drop in gasoline stockpiles while noting demand grew vs. last year."

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD market outlook excerpts for today:

"A sharp decline in oil prices ignited a rally for stocks Thursday, but volume was mixed. The Nasdaq rose 1%, the small-cap S&P 600 0.7%, the Dow and S&P 500 0.6% each.

Those gains stood among the largest in the last few weeks, with the market in a mild downtrend. But they weren't enough to trigger a follow-through day.

Volume didn't cooperate, closing slightly higher on the NYSE, but edging lower on the Nasdaq.

A follow-through day requires a big price advance on higher volume for one or more of the major indexes.

Stocks have shown modestly bullish action in the last few days, with a sprinkle of higher volume here, a dash of decent price gains there. Some more leading stocks have started acting well, and new names from medical and retail groups have started perking up.

That said, this isn't a time to be diving in and grabbing every stock in sight. The market's recent meandering could lead to a powerful new rally. It also could falter and usher in a nasty round of losses.

Don't try to guess or anticipate the market's next move. Instead, watch its daily and weekly price and volume action. Taking your cues from the big-money investors who control three-quarters of the market's direction has been, and remains, the best way to make money in stocks.

Oil prices continue to hold sway over the market's daily movement. With crude recently hitting all-time high levels, the Street has reacted to seemingly every tick in oil prices.

It happened again Thursday. Stocks rose on a 3.1% drop in crude, thanks to a stronger than expected natural gas inventories report.

The ongoing oil-related jitters point to a market that remains extremely news-driven. That's usually not a good sign. A strong market, such as the one seen in 2003 or through much of the '90s, largely ignores bad news, or at least looks past it. Given all the economic and geopolitical news seen on a given day, the market won't get far if it throws a fit every time something bad happens."

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Im sticking with full investment in stocks as long as theenergy action behaves. Still at 70C and 30S from 15 Mar. May want to shift some into I but dont have a good feel on which way the dollar will go.

 

[IBD Fan]

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IBD market outlook is the same for today: Market attempting to rally.

Excerpts:

"Investors appear to be saving their gunpowder until the first-quarter earnings season fires away. On Tuesday, leading South Korean steel maker Posco (PKX) and online discount travel firm Travelzoo (TZOO) report their results. Apple Computer, (AAPL) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Commerce Bancorp, (CBH) a leading bank stock since the 1990s, go live Wednesday.

As Monday's A1 feature pointed out, corporate earnings growth is expected to slow in the first quarter. Higher oil prices and the effect of seven interest rate hikes since June have made an impact on recent economic activity.

Year-over-year comparisons are tougher."

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I hope they are right in the pent up demand awaiting 1Q earning reports. Anyway the oil prices are going in the right direction - down,although I would have liked to see the linkage much closer when it goes down and the market goes up.

 

[coolhand]

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Rally may be on the way, dollar too...I fund may be heading into a headwind again.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9566a5ee-ab3e-11d9-893c-00000e2511c8.html

 

[coolhand]

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Oil inventories are up...projected global consumption seen on the decrease AND gas prices are showing signs of dropping. Bodes well for a sustained move up if we can get some good key earnings reports. Retail sales report tomorrow. Could be a good day.

 

[IBD Fan]

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Hi coolhand, isnt this market hard to figure? I was feeling good after Tuesday action then bammmm get a bad day. Im still hoping and dreaming for the sustained upward move.