Short term market outlook

[tsptalk]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Those are the three I want to see start to move. Not the commodity stocks. That is my contranian view.

Yup, oil stocks and homebuilders are not the ones you want to see leading a rally.

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Those are the three I want to see start to move. Not the commodity stocks. That is my contranian view.

Yup, oil stocks and homebuilders are not the ones you want to see leading a rally.

Amen Brother.

You will not hear this chatter on the Cheerleading None Business Channel (CNBC). The underpinnings of the stock market are getting weaker NOT stronger. U.S. dollar getting CRUSHED and long term yields coming down told us the true story today. Peeling the onion back the commodities stocks were the reason the market "had a good" day. Higher commodities = higher prices and PE contraction.

Not good.

 

[IBD Fan]

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tsptalk wrote:

IBD Fan wrote:

Funny how after a big GREEN day, many get cautious. Must be the reverse psychology or the contrarian view.

IBD -
When you say "many" are you talking about the people on this board or a more broader sentiment?You know I like that contrarian view so if the broader herd is getting cautiousthe rally may continue. If the caution is just on this board, I'm not as inclined to be bullish as we are all trained to go against the herd.

What is Bill O'Neil saying? I know he likes to see follow through on big volume. Does he think we have seen it already? The volume wasn't real great but I guess it was a Friday. Brokers are drinking slow gin fizzes by 2 PM.

Thanks,
Tom

I was making reference to many on this board. I am not an experienced trader so dont have exposure to the daily action but have been reading a lot since I joined this board. Yeah the brokers like to take it easy on Fridays - so do a lot of others. In regard to IBD here's some excerpts and the pulse is the same for the last few days "Rally shows sign of new life"; article written by David Saito-Chung (which I find mildly positive):

Solid job gains, no wage growth. The market smiled at this surprising combination Friday.

February U.S. payrolls grew faster than expected, confirming recent reports of dwindling jobless claims. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4%. But economists feasted on news that average hourly earnings were flat from a month earlier, easing inflation concerns.

The major indexes had a choppy week as investors grappled with a load of mixed economic news. But the positive jobs data helped give stocks a second straight week of mild gains.

The S&P 500, bolstered by rallies across a wide swath of industries, gained almost 1% as NYSE volume edged higher. The large-cap index reclaimed all of its losses since its early-January pummeling and now stands up nearly 1% for the year. The Dow also picked up 1% to reach its highest level since June 2001.

Smaller stocks outperformed. The mid-cap S&P 400 rose 1.1%; the small-cap S&P 600 advanced 1.2%. Both hit all-time highs.
Rising indexes are nice. But a new crop of breakouts is crucial to mustering the confidence to put cash to work. On Friday, a few more stocks added credibility to the current rally.

Mid-cap defense electronics leader Flir Systems (FLIR) rallied 1.53 to 33.35, breaking out of a 6 1/2-month base on 2 1/2 times average volume. Philippine Long Distance (PHI) also cleared a base while NCI Building Systems, (NCS) whose $851 market cap tags it as a small cap, added to its Thursday breakout. Home builders, metals and machinery also strengthened.

The Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Biogen Idec's (BIIB) decision to shelve its experimental multiple sclerosis drug still weighed on the biotech sector. IBD's Medical-Biomedical/Biotech industry group, ranked deep in the bottom half of IBD's table of 197 industries, lost nearly 6% last week.

One could call the market's behavior a bit funky. After all, if oil prices are rising, why is the economy doing so well? And why is the market hanging tough?

Sure, Americans still guzzle the most gas in the world. But the economy has changed a lot in 40 years. Smokestack industries don't dominate places like Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh anymore. Services, health care and technology make up the bulk of job growth.

At the same time, oil prices are rising because worldwide demand is up. Not only is democracy spreading, but so is the industrialization of emerging economies. So for the time being, commodities and stocks are rising in lock step.

The strength of some sector indexes also confirmed the increasing breadth of the market's rally.

The 15-stock Dow utility average surged 1.9% to post its highest close since July 2001. The 20-stock Dow transport average also gained 1.9% in recouping all of its losses since Jan. 1. It also notched an all-time high.

 

[Mike]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Higher commodities = higher prices and PE contraction.

Not good.

I'd like to invest in commodities. Does anyone know how to go about doing this? Are they traded in ETF's or something else?

I'd like to buy a bunch of natural gas and hold onto it. It's a cleaner burning source of energy and is usually in very high demand.

 

[Guest]

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Best way to play this if you do not have a lot of dough and do not have time to watchthe market every hour of the day (like I have too when I have pieces on the board).

Is T.R. Price Natural Gas mutual fund - you can open for 50 if you agree to add 50 a month until you have $2K.

Great fund, great manager...greatway to play in the gas patch. EFTs are outstanding however you can get steamrolled by momenutm guys. You do not seem to be the type that can take a 12%-30% hit in a day.

Most other mutual funds that are energy related have closed their doors to new investors.

Good luck. Until you gain more knowledge please avoid the EFTs or futures in this area. You can get crushed in a blink of an eye.

 

[Rolo]

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We can see Dr_Dubious has a lot of natural gas, ehehehe.

Ihave a lot of "hard assets" funds right now...I am thinking they the same thing...(sanity check here) ?

VAN ECK WW HRD ASSTS FND R (don't know ticker, it's in a 403(b)) :}14% YTD

QRACX - Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund :}19% YTD

PSPFX - US Global Investors Global Resources :}24% YTD

RSNRX - RS Global Natural Resources :}16% YTD

These have been my biggest gainers and ate about half of my portfolio atm. I am thinking I need to increase my allocation to these guys and add some emerging market funds. Thoughts?

What would be a sign, if anything, that this sector is about to fall behind?

 

[Guest]

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Does Opp still have that massive front end load?

I gave him a fund that was painless for his economic situation. $50 to start $50 a month. The funds you mentioned are good but he may have a hard time gathering the scratch to open.

Thanks your picks.

 

[IBD Fan]

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I like to live in the moment - we are in a "rally" mode. The problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets. So on the other side of the coin, my philisophy is to enjoy the positives whileI can.

I will stick with the market pulse indicator in IBD and stay on the "rally" for now. It was difficult jumping back into the equities after getting out with the big dips, but so far this year, if I stayed with my last year's allocationplan of 50-50 CS I would be ahead even after this past week.

Again the big unknown this time around is the oil issue - will it cause enough of a damper to throw the rally off? Or will it go away for another time?

Enjoy the upsides when they happen!:dude::^

 

[Guest]

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IBD Fan wrote:

problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets.

If we knew this we would be God.

Problem with the market right now - we never had these record consumer/gov debt/trade inbalance and a fed that is hell bent on making the economic data fuzzy to the good side. When the game is rigged it is harder for investors to make decisions. Which is why the experienced hands on this board are scratching our head"s". Nothing is making sense anymore.

Lots of hedge fund managers are quitting their jobs because this is not a real stock market anymore it is to frustrating.

I am a God not thee God - Bill Murray

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Does Opp still have that massive front end load?

No, they have class C and class N versions of most or all of their funds. QRACX (class C) only has a redemption fee that expires after a year.

I didn't choose Oppenheimer, my g/f did. It is getting transferred to Scottrade when that redemption fee expires.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

I gave him a fund that was painless for his economic situation. $50 to start $50 a month. The funds you mentioned are good but he may have a hard time gathering the scratch to open.

Possibly...but the initial investment amount is different for IRA's. All of mine are $50-$500 to start/buy more.

Hey Dub, when do you think the real asset sector will top?

 

[coolhand]

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IBD Fan wrote:

I like to live in the moment - we are in a "rally" mode. The problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets. So on the other side of the coin, my philisophy is to enjoy the positives whileI can.

Enjoy the upsides when they happen!:dude::^

I agree with you IBD Fan. Take advantage while you can. While I am a contrarian at the moment, I still look for good opportunities to "smash and grab" as Dr. D would say.

As far as specific dates go, good luck. The contrarian point is merely to be aware that all is not right in OZ. Whether I am contrarian or not I still hope we all find a way to do well in the market.

BTW, I appreciate your posts. Keep em coming. :^

"No warning can save a people determined
to grow suddenly rich." - Lord Overstone

 

[IBD Fan]

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coolhand wrote:

IBD Fan wrote:

I like to live in the moment - we are in a "rally" mode. The problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets. So on the other side of the coin, my philisophy is to enjoy the positives whileI can.

Enjoy the upsides when they happen!:dude::^

I agree with you IBD Fan. Take advantage while you can. While I am a contrarian at the moment, I still look for good opportunities to "smash and grab" as Dr. D would say.

As far as specific dates go, good luck. The contrarian point is merely to be aware that all is not right in OZ. Whether I am contrarian or not I still hope we all find a way to do well in the market.

Good to hear from you!

BTW, I appreciate your posts. Keep em coming. :^

"No warning can save a people determined
to grow suddenly rich." - Lord Overstone

The market is full of diversity and opinions and strategies - thats what makes it go round and round. As a TSPer I like to look at the market from a short range perspective (since we have the opportunity to bail in two days) - so my horizon is less than a week. When I hear contrarians viewpoints it tells me yeah the longer term might be bad but how is the market doing today or the next few daysthat is important. Also, the good news is not brought out enough on this board. Have to find it in the business news. The postings appears to have an imbalance of bad news bears. This is why I question the timing - the market is doing good now but many postings is bad news. Someone who is looking for the positives got to find it elsewhere and believe me thereis much good news to read about. Also, with the President in charge and his staff and Mr Greenspan, you could not have a stronger pro business group running the show. Why do I hear continual bashing of government and the Federal Reserve. We are at War and yet the country is being run as best as can during these difficult times - yeah we are in a big deficit situation butthinking positively,I thinkwe will get out of the problem - will just take time - patience my man! Thanks for your kind words and good luck.:^

 

[Guest]

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Rolo wrote:

Hey Dub, when do you think the real asset sector will top?

In my opionion we are near the top now:

(1) All major newspapers running stories about - missing the real estate boom.

(2) Rising interest rates.

(3) Growing homes on the market longer.

(4) Reading stories where stage 1-2 sells out but stage 3-4 they have to delay or lower the price to move product.

(5) Everyone is a real estate expert.

(6) Housing is not suppose to go up this fast - everything evens out.

A good meter will be 9 and 10 Mar when the Treasury has to sell a about 60B in 5 and 10 yrs to pay We, the Borg, trade balance.

We will have a good idea this week. The fed is going to do another .25 at the end of the month. If the yield curve inverts (it is very close now) - then you are too late. In 1987 the yield curve inverted and the ten yield jumped 2.5% in about two hours. It was bloody for the REITS. If you want to play in REITs I can recommend apartment REITs. I have been snapping them up on the cheap - reason. When people start getting foreclosed they will become a renter. I am all ready waiting for them. Action/Reaction. Works everytime.

 

[vectorman]

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Dub, I'm also seeing in the newspaper many more homes being sold off the court house steps because of ower financial problems andnot be able to find a buyer for their expensive home.

 

[Montana]

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Very good points Dr. D but ease up on the personal attacks. Don't want to lose you again. You're too valuable an asset to this forum!!!!!!!

 

[Guest]

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Montana wrote:

Very good points Dr. D but ease up on the personal attacks. Don't want to lose you again. You're too valuable an asset to this forum!!!!!!!

I only give it back when I receive it.

Besides we love each other. As you can tell most of the time we friendly.

We will knock it off. Sorry. At least I will . We, the Borg have no time for emotions.

Have a great day!

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

Dub, I'm also seeing in the newspaper many more homes being sold off the court house steps because of ower financial problems andnot be able to find a buyer for their expensive home.

Yes, Mr V...you will find if you research (stuff like this is buried - for some whacky reason) foreclosures were up 37% in 2004 and all ready 18% so far this year.

The bank loves it - they "seize the house" then quickly sell it at the market price and the difference goes right to the bottom line. Like hitting triple 7s. They can not wait for you to miss a couple payments...

because they know when this sucker turns housing prices will drop 40-70% to get back to historic averages. Everything evens out.

 

[coolhand]

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IBD Fan wrote:

Also, with the President in charge and his staff and Mr Greenspan, you could not have a stronger pro business group running the show. Why do I hear continual bashing of government and the Federal Reserve. We are at War and yet the country is being run as best as can during these difficult times - yeah we are in a big deficit situation butthinking positively,I thinkwe will get out of the problem - will just take time - patience my man! Thanks for your kind words and good luck.:^

You have no idea how much you sound like me just a couple of months ago.

I am a retired Navy guywho will always back our troopsand Icertainly back our administration in preserving our security here at home. However, when it comes to monetary policy I have become a skeptic. My skepticism is spawned not so much by any given administration, but by the power of the federal reserve and its influence over our lives.

You are right, there is good news for you to read out there. The problem is, is it accurate news? That's the rub.Same thing for the bad news. I am striving to learnabout our financial markets, but I have to be smart enough to discern for myself what I choose to believe because there are a lot of opinions out there. But much of it is just that, opinions, or even out and outdisinformation. They don't call economics the dismal science for nothing. It is a soft science.

Studies of anthropology, history, psychology, and sociology are sometimes called "soft sciences." Proponents of this division use the arguments that the "soft sciences" do not use the scientific method, admit anecdotal evidence, or are not mathematical, all adding up to a "lack of rigor" in their methods.

http://www.answers.com/topic/science

My point is that regardless of who is voted into office, our collective finanacial well-being is controlled not so muchby a free market system, but by the federal reserve.

Understand the federal reserve and you begin to understand the market.

A few months ago Tekno recommended a book called The Creature From Jekyll Island written by G. Edward Griffin.

The title is misleading. It is a history of the Federal Reserve. This book goes into great detail about why the federal reserve was created.The federal reserve is not"federal", it is a private banking institution with its own agenda.

BTW, the author of this book is well respected and has many credits to his name.

I recommend for anyone to take the timeto understand the federal reserve system.I have attached a link which hasanother link to avery lengthy audio recording of the author discussing the federal reserve.

http://www.wealth4freedom.com/creature.htm

 

[Guest]

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IBD Fan wrote:

I like to live in the moment - we are in a "rally" mode. The problem with the nay sayers (contrarians) is no specific dates are given for the doomsday for all the bad influences on the markets. So on the other side of the coin, my philisophy is to enjoy the positives whileI can.

I will stick with the market pulse indicator in IBD and stay on the "rally" for now. It was difficult jumping back into the equities after getting out with the big dips, but so far this year, if I stayed with my last year's allocationplan of 50-50 CS I would be ahead even after this past week.

Again the big unknown this time around is the oil issue - will it cause enough of a damper to throw the rally off? Or will it go away for another time?

Enjoy the upsides when they happen!:dude::^

Market will be down week, but not sure how long. Look for it to be down big Mon. then if Tues. is flat or down slightly, look to jump back in. If not, wait for a fairly flat day and jump back in. That's about all I can do for ya. Just purely going by the numbers. I'll leave the analysis to the big boys.

Good luck,

TT

 

[Montana]

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Those are my sentiments exactly. Went G at fridays close and waiting to see what Monday and Tues. bring. Historically, second week in March is good but current conditions are a little uncertain.