05/15/25
It was a slow yet somewhat volatile for day for stocks as the indices were choppy, mixed, and looking for direction after the recent rally. The pain trade is still to the upside as the underinvested can't seem to get the pullback they have been waiting for. The Nasdaq led on the upside again, and small caps lagged the C and I-funds as yields are starting to get in the way. The rally in yields also had the F-fund moving lower.
The "easy" money, basically the blast off from the oversold lows, has probably been made, and it may get tougher from here, or at least it will be tougher to assume the upside will continue at the same pace that we saw over the last month. I've been talking about the recent rise in bond yields, and it is starting to move up a little more quickly, and this will be a concern for the stock market rally if it continues.
However, the market doesn't make it that easy and give us a pullback on command. At this point it would be likely that the S&P 500 attempts to push toward the old highs, although we could see some consolidating, and maybe a modest pullback, along the way, but again the dip buyers are not far away.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up a few points yesterday as it continues to ride along the top of the ascending trading channel. The open gap that started at last Friday's close is still in the picture, but the change in the tariff situation may be enough to keep this from a quick and simple fill, although a pullback down to toward 5600 would certainly clean up the chart.
Some follow up to the Nvidia chart that was hitting resistance the other day. That is major technical progress.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was up again and reaching toward another level of resistance after breaking through other resistance quite easily this week. The speed of this rally in yields may start weighing on the stock market, but with the momentum in stocks recently, it may be quite a battle.
The dollar (UUP) was down early yesterday, just about filled Monday's open gap, and reversed higher. It is below the major moving averages but remains above the broken descending resistance line so this too is looking for direction after its relief rally off the lows.
We'll get the PPI (Producer Price Index) report this morning and if anything can change the direction of yields and the dollar, it's an economic report that misses or beats estimates by a meaningful amount.
Another GDPNow second quarter GDP estimate comes out today. Their prior estimate was +2.3% which, after expectations of a tariff driven recession, may be why Treasury Yields are on the rise, although it may be too early in the process to feel the effects of any new tariffs.
That's about it. We have a strong stock market that may be feeling some fatigue but pullbacks don't tend to come when everyone expects them.
DWCPF (S-fund) was down modestly as it tests some over head resistance, although that resistance is rising. 2250 is a possible target price, but not necessarily a peak.
ACWX (I-fund) was down again as the dollar turned a negative morning into a gain. This fund already took a few days off last week but it may need the dollar to settle down before it advances much further.
The BND (F-fund) has some room to fall but yesterday's low did hit some possible support.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a slow yet somewhat volatile for day for stocks as the indices were choppy, mixed, and looking for direction after the recent rally. The pain trade is still to the upside as the underinvested can't seem to get the pullback they have been waiting for. The Nasdaq led on the upside again, and small caps lagged the C and I-funds as yields are starting to get in the way. The rally in yields also had the F-fund moving lower.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
The "easy" money, basically the blast off from the oversold lows, has probably been made, and it may get tougher from here, or at least it will be tougher to assume the upside will continue at the same pace that we saw over the last month. I've been talking about the recent rise in bond yields, and it is starting to move up a little more quickly, and this will be a concern for the stock market rally if it continues.
However, the market doesn't make it that easy and give us a pullback on command. At this point it would be likely that the S&P 500 attempts to push toward the old highs, although we could see some consolidating, and maybe a modest pullback, along the way, but again the dip buyers are not far away.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up a few points yesterday as it continues to ride along the top of the ascending trading channel. The open gap that started at last Friday's close is still in the picture, but the change in the tariff situation may be enough to keep this from a quick and simple fill, although a pullback down to toward 5600 would certainly clean up the chart.
Some follow up to the Nvidia chart that was hitting resistance the other day. That is major technical progress.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was up again and reaching toward another level of resistance after breaking through other resistance quite easily this week. The speed of this rally in yields may start weighing on the stock market, but with the momentum in stocks recently, it may be quite a battle.
The dollar (UUP) was down early yesterday, just about filled Monday's open gap, and reversed higher. It is below the major moving averages but remains above the broken descending resistance line so this too is looking for direction after its relief rally off the lows.
We'll get the PPI (Producer Price Index) report this morning and if anything can change the direction of yields and the dollar, it's an economic report that misses or beats estimates by a meaningful amount.
Another GDPNow second quarter GDP estimate comes out today. Their prior estimate was +2.3% which, after expectations of a tariff driven recession, may be why Treasury Yields are on the rise, although it may be too early in the process to feel the effects of any new tariffs.
That's about it. We have a strong stock market that may be feeling some fatigue but pullbacks don't tend to come when everyone expects them.
DWCPF (S-fund) was down modestly as it tests some over head resistance, although that resistance is rising. 2250 is a possible target price, but not necessarily a peak.
ACWX (I-fund) was down again as the dollar turned a negative morning into a gain. This fund already took a few days off last week but it may need the dollar to settle down before it advances much further.
The BND (F-fund) has some room to fall but yesterday's low did hit some possible support.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
