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Rolo's Account Talk
- Thread starter Rolo
- Start date
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Yeah, but let's see if it holds and for how long. I do make it a point to check the charts daily and to check to see what people are sayin'. I think I am beginning to get a feel, to get the rhythm of the charts. It's not so much the study of markets, economy, etc. as it is of human nature--of how human nature responds to the economy. Markets, etc. may change, but human nature doesn't.
hehe...all week I'd check the intraday charts on my phone (Samsung i600..has Windows Mobile on it) to 'keep in touch'. We can see that line of resistance being met. Since Monday was lower, I was hoping Friday would be higher (sign of a bull) and the only way to accomplish that was to break through the resistance.
Since DWCP has not broken 502 yet, small caps are still in need of catching up. Tom, and those who said large caps will now outperform small caps, were right. (whew! I'm glad I wasn't such a hard head and looked for evidence to prove their opinion!)
The question now is: What would we consider to be the new support line? 1200? 1210?
:}2.33% YTD...I need to look at that spreadsheet!
Yeah, but let's see if it holds and for how long. I do make it a point to check the charts daily and to check to see what people are sayin'. I think I am beginning to get a feel, to get the rhythm of the charts. It's not so much the study of markets, economy, etc. as it is of human nature--of how human nature responds to the economy. Markets, etc. may change, but human nature doesn't.
hehe...all week I'd check the intraday charts on my phone (Samsung i600..has Windows Mobile on it) to 'keep in touch'. We can see that line of resistance being met. Since Monday was lower, I was hoping Friday would be higher (sign of a bull) and the only way to accomplish that was to break through the resistance.
Since DWCP has not broken 502 yet, small caps are still in need of catching up. Tom, and those who said large caps will now outperform small caps, were right. (whew! I'm glad I wasn't such a hard head and looked for evidence to prove their opinion!)
The question now is: What would we consider to be the new support line? 1200? 1210?
:}2.33% YTD...I need to look at that spreadsheet!
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Yeah, that sounds good...the body needs to stay above ~1217, otherwise, it's just 'noise' that happened to bump past Dec high. Personally, I won't be concerned if it stays above 1200 next week. I would expect some minor profit-taking in the beginning, but the week needs to close > 1217. If it doesn't, then I may go 100% I.
Yeah, that sounds good...the body needs to stay above ~1217, otherwise, it's just 'noise' that happened to bump past Dec high. Personally, I won't be concerned if it stays above 1200 next week. I would expect some minor profit-taking in the beginning, but the week needs to close > 1217. If it doesn't, then I may go 100% I.
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Hmmm...body towards the bottom of the shadow on SP500. A day or two correction is probably expected. Hopefully, that is not an indication that the tiny run-up is over. Hopefully, it will stay level, showing support and strength. Dropping below 1213 would be bad.
Harami on EFA, cool. Hopefully we will have a Three Inside Up rather than a Three Inside Down. Currency fluctuations may distort the pattern, so account for it.
I'm staying in both...no need to get jitterish on speculation, just go where the evidence leads.
I did a bit of tweaking in the rest of my portfolio that I wish I'd done a month or two ago...falling asleep at the wheel can make us miss gains.
My top six picks:
PSPFX - Global Natural Resources - just added more to my position in it and moved some RSPFX into it.
RSNRX - Global Natural Resources - I added more to this position.
QRACX - hard assets
Van Eck World-Wide Emerging Markets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
Van Eck World-Wide Hard Assets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
UNWPX - Precious Metals
Other funds:
OSMCX - International Small Company Value (I may reduce this position, gotta check redemption fees)
QSCCX - Small Company Value
RSPFX - RS Partners, a long-term keeper
SMTVX - Multi-cap Value (traded SCOVX - Small Cap Value for it)
RSVAX - Formerly known as RSCOX, a value fund
Gartmore Global Utility III (I can't find a ticker)
Hmmm...body towards the bottom of the shadow on SP500. A day or two correction is probably expected. Hopefully, that is not an indication that the tiny run-up is over. Hopefully, it will stay level, showing support and strength. Dropping below 1213 would be bad.
Harami on EFA, cool. Hopefully we will have a Three Inside Up rather than a Three Inside Down. Currency fluctuations may distort the pattern, so account for it.
I'm staying in both...no need to get jitterish on speculation, just go where the evidence leads.
I did a bit of tweaking in the rest of my portfolio that I wish I'd done a month or two ago...falling asleep at the wheel can make us miss gains.
My top six picks:
PSPFX - Global Natural Resources - just added more to my position in it and moved some RSPFX into it.
RSNRX - Global Natural Resources - I added more to this position.
QRACX - hard assets
Van Eck World-Wide Emerging Markets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
Van Eck World-Wide Hard Assets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
UNWPX - Precious Metals
Other funds:
OSMCX - International Small Company Value (I may reduce this position, gotta check redemption fees)
QSCCX - Small Company Value
RSPFX - RS Partners, a long-term keeper
SMTVX - Multi-cap Value (traded SCOVX - Small Cap Value for it)
RSVAX - Formerly known as RSCOX, a value fund
Gartmore Global Utility III (I can't find a ticker)
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Just to make everyone welcome, I put my stuff out there to invite commentary too. My two biggest concerns are buying/adding at a top and spotting the next top sector too late (which are almost the same thing and lead to buying high and either selling low or waiting a long time to break even/make a buck).
If anyone has a different approach or even a similar fund that they think is better, by all means share your insight. Perhaps we can all post our holdings in our respective account talk threads and can compare notes. As a collective, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
TSP: 73 I, 27 C still. SP500 had a black day as I expected. Two nice things about it: the black body stayed within the prior two white bodies, effectively making a Harami, and a new support level could be forming at 1211-1215. I think we'll be good if tomorrow's body stays within today's body (assuming it doesn't go higher, that is). I Fund still looks good, steady.
Just to make everyone welcome, I put my stuff out there to invite commentary too. My two biggest concerns are buying/adding at a top and spotting the next top sector too late (which are almost the same thing and lead to buying high and either selling low or waiting a long time to break even/make a buck).
If anyone has a different approach or even a similar fund that they think is better, by all means share your insight. Perhaps we can all post our holdings in our respective account talk threads and can compare notes. As a collective, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
TSP: 73 I, 27 C still. SP500 had a black day as I expected. Two nice things about it: the black body stayed within the prior two white bodies, effectively making a Harami, and a new support level could be forming at 1211-1215. I think we'll be good if tomorrow's body stays within today's body (assuming it doesn't go higher, that is). I Fund still looks good, steady.
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Appreciate your input and sharing how you come to your conclusions; especially, for one such as myself who doesn't have the savy or time to provide what you do, kudos :^. Good idea about the collective, wisdom in a multitude of counselors, but isn't this more or less already done by yourself and others? I'm sure I must be missing the point.
Agree about the possible support level for C, but I'll be a tad concerned if we drop below the 1205 mark. As for the I, go baby go (although I expect some retracing soon).
Appreciate your input and sharing how you come to your conclusions; especially, for one such as myself who doesn't have the savy or time to provide what you do, kudos :^. Good idea about the collective, wisdom in a multitude of counselors, but isn't this more or less already done by yourself and others? I'm sure I must be missing the point.
Agree about the possible support level for C, but I'll be a tad concerned if we drop below the 1205 mark. As for the I, go baby go (although I expect some retracing soon).
G
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Rolo wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Looking like a TKO to me, good job Rolo. Now give us some OB or PKstocks to take a look at..........I have $500 and to make $10000 so I can take a vacation..............
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Waiting for the market to turn before I buy individual stocks. Also, I spent all my stock money, so I have to stockpile more again, after my IRAs are fully funded.
I am looking for a buy point to buy back SIRI for long-term holding.
I am waiting for WBSN to top and fall. It did a helluva lot better than I thought it would. medium term
GOOG is still on my watchlist, looks like it could be at the bottom of a cup right now. short term: too high P/E and too volatile for long term
I dunno what news hit (?) XMSR, but it shot up real good. I can't remember, is that a good pennant or a bad one? long term or short term
VLCCF and NAT...are they done or should we look for a buying opportunity? I meant to buy the former for only a weekjust to catch the dividend, but I forgot. :?
hehe, It'd be quicker if you started with $2000 so you could margin.
Waiting for the market to turn before I buy individual stocks. Also, I spent all my stock money, so I have to stockpile more again, after my IRAs are fully funded.
I am looking for a buy point to buy back SIRI for long-term holding.
I am waiting for WBSN to top and fall. It did a helluva lot better than I thought it would. medium term
GOOG is still on my watchlist, looks like it could be at the bottom of a cup right now. short term: too high P/E and too volatile for long term
I dunno what news hit (?) XMSR, but it shot up real good. I can't remember, is that a good pennant or a bad one? long term or short term
VLCCF and NAT...are they done or should we look for a buying opportunity? I meant to buy the former for only a weekjust to catch the dividend, but I forgot. :?
hehe, It'd be quicker if you started with $2000 so you could margin.
G
Guest
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Rolo wrote:
I agree with ya on SIRI, just a matter of time before it hits at least $8 again, "pre-stern". I think XM helped by raising their monthly rates. Of course some think "well if they raise rates for no apparent reason, then they must know something". Tough call, maybe Steve has something going on with XM?
SIRI will be up and down till Stern comes on, in my opinion, but it may besooner than most think. FCC just raised the fines remember. I'm actually looking for E channel and SIRI to get together and make a satellite TV/radio unit. Downloadable of course. I hope William Shattner is alive to see it!!!
I may have spelled his name wrong. Sorry Captain!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyway, check out XSNX. They go commercial in the 2nd quarter and Bush sent a proposal to Congress pushing solar energy. Cheap buy and hold as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps I can put it on my truck windows and save some gas..........
Rolo wrote:
LOL, I was kidding about the $500...........VLCCF and NAT...are they done or should we look for a buying opportunity? I meant to buy the former for only a weekjust to catch the dividend, but I forgot. :?
hehe, It'd be quicker if you started with $2000 so you could margin.
I agree with ya on SIRI, just a matter of time before it hits at least $8 again, "pre-stern". I think XM helped by raising their monthly rates. Of course some think "well if they raise rates for no apparent reason, then they must know something". Tough call, maybe Steve has something going on with XM?
SIRI will be up and down till Stern comes on, in my opinion, but it may besooner than most think. FCC just raised the fines remember. I'm actually looking for E channel and SIRI to get together and make a satellite TV/radio unit. Downloadable of course. I hope William Shattner is alive to see it!!!
I may have spelled his name wrong. Sorry Captain!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anyway, check out XSNX. They go commercial in the 2nd quarter and Bush sent a proposal to Congress pushing solar energy. Cheap buy and hold as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps I can put it on my truck windows and save some gas..........
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HOOOOOOOOOLY CRAP! PSPFX, my 2nd largest holding, shot up 9.96% today! Odd for a mutual fund; I wonder if/when it's gonna deflate...
Is now a good time for precious minerals? My UNWPX dropped a tad (I just bought it) and wondered if I should add more orjust addmore PSPFX. Suggestions?
C Fund/SP500: Doink! A nice bounce off the 50-day and the drop is slowing and showing signs of reversing. Let's hope for same or better tomorrow. A lot of stocks on my watchlist have had great gains with about 60/40 up/down.
I Fund/EFV: Still trading within March 4th's body. Sumpin's gotta give sometime soon! Let's hope the buck collapses below the old lows. Wonder what that'll do for domestic equities? Make'm cheap for foreign investors? Inject new life into our market's rally?
HOOOOOOOOOLY CRAP! PSPFX, my 2nd largest holding, shot up 9.96% today! Odd for a mutual fund; I wonder if/when it's gonna deflate...
Is now a good time for precious minerals? My UNWPX dropped a tad (I just bought it) and wondered if I should add more orjust addmore PSPFX. Suggestions?
C Fund/SP500: Doink! A nice bounce off the 50-day and the drop is slowing and showing signs of reversing. Let's hope for same or better tomorrow. A lot of stocks on my watchlist have had great gains with about 60/40 up/down.
I Fund/EFV: Still trading within March 4th's body. Sumpin's gotta give sometime soon! Let's hope the buck collapses below the old lows. Wonder what that'll do for domestic equities? Make'm cheap for foreign investors? Inject new life into our market's rally?
TEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
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How are you sitting now? Last I recall you were 75% I and 25% C. Did you IFT today?
How are you sitting now? Last I recall you were 75% I and 25% C. Did you IFT today?
Easy come, easy go.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Rolo wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Declines are rather swift, advances rather small. 1184 should be a support level, should. Would like to see a bullish single bar reversal, somewhere about this time. If so, I might take a different position,however am reluctant to venture outside till the horsemen settle down.
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C Fund/SP500: I think we hit support today @ 1172 with this spinning top. The bears and bulls appear to be stalemated and uncertain.
This can actually be a higher low if you look at the past six months. The prior low was 1163. Jan 3, the high was 1217 and a new high set on Mar 7 was 1229. These would all be consistent with very slow growth overall, which is what the pundits are thinking for 2005.
We could be seeing a choppy market with a macroscopic uptrend for the better part of the year. That could be an opportunity to make serious gains or to screw the pooch. Either way, it'll test yer mettle. I'm up to it...to kick myself for doing something or for not doing something? That is the question...
This week will probably be pretty flat with signs of faint life on Thursday. I believe now is the time to buy if you are trying to buy on a dip. We'll see if Monday gaps up or gaps down.
I Fund/EFV: GUH! I really hope we hit support at 159-dot-ought. I am soo tempted to go 100%C (from 75I/25C) right now. I don't have the 'testicular fortitude' to do it though.
Holding, but concerned. I'll get you next time, Gadget, next time.
C Fund/SP500: I think we hit support today @ 1172 with this spinning top. The bears and bulls appear to be stalemated and uncertain.
This can actually be a higher low if you look at the past six months. The prior low was 1163. Jan 3, the high was 1217 and a new high set on Mar 7 was 1229. These would all be consistent with very slow growth overall, which is what the pundits are thinking for 2005.
We could be seeing a choppy market with a macroscopic uptrend for the better part of the year. That could be an opportunity to make serious gains or to screw the pooch. Either way, it'll test yer mettle. I'm up to it...to kick myself for doing something or for not doing something? That is the question...
This week will probably be pretty flat with signs of faint life on Thursday. I believe now is the time to buy if you are trying to buy on a dip. We'll see if Monday gaps up or gaps down.
I Fund/EFV: GUH! I really hope we hit support at 159-dot-ought. I am soo tempted to go 100%C (from 75I/25C) right now. I don't have the 'testicular fortitude' to do it though.
Holding, but concerned. I'll get you next time, Gadget, next time.
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Oy! I'm lost! heh
This is my 2004 babble...which should remain buried long ago...'cos my returns weren't spectacular and they should be hidden, hehe. They weren't CRAPtacular, though, so I am happy.
I put my 2005 babble in the WRONG category...heh...PMing Tom...
Link to it: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1038.html
ehehehe...HEY Milk! Glad to see ya...and that we're not in straight-jackets..bwahaha
Oy! I'm lost! heh
This is my 2004 babble...which should remain buried long ago...'cos my returns weren't spectacular and they should be hidden, hehe. They weren't CRAPtacular, though, so I am happy.
I put my 2005 babble in the WRONG category...heh...PMing Tom...
Link to it: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1038.html
ehehehe...HEY Milk! Glad to see ya...and that we're not in straight-jackets..bwahaha
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