Rolo's Account Talk

[Rolo]

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All TSP funds and XAU (gold & silver index, 25% of my portfolio) are behaving as I expected: Small body within Friday's trading range, little/no shadow, the beginning of a flat base. So far...so good...so what!

I'll go on a lark here and say that a flat base will continue until the 16th, then a breakout on the 19th, a day before the FOMC.

I am a little concerned that my XAU-category funds (QRACX, PSPFX, RSNRX, UNWPX, and Van Eck) are correcting a little more than they should...keeping a close eye on them.

 

[Rolo]

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C Fund: Y'know...up until the last hour of today, everything looked sweeeet and I was on a roll.

Yesterday, it was clear that this was the pattern forming:

And even today....until the end and that fourth day there, rather than a Doji (tiny body with small shadows) turned into a black day down to 1227. I agree with Spaf's posts in that 1227 is "Yellow Alert".

Rising Three Methods (the above pattern) isa good thing...just means bulls are taking a breather.It seems the bulls lost some confidence today. Perhaps they will wait until the 50-day MA for a buy-point?

S Fund looks pretty much the same.

I Fund: Still looks good.

F Fund: May be a short-term profit-maker at least. The candlestick

(Hammer) shows that a reversal is likely and that tomorrow will tell. Ideally, a white real body Hammer with a higher open tomorrow could be a bullish signal for the days ahead.

All the wavy, curvy lines look good: price is slightly above 50-day MA, smack in the middle of the tightening Bollinger bands, and MACD is turning around.

Couple the losing confidence with the seemingly rising confidence in bonds and the salivating at the imminent FMOC announcement....holy shitski, I think Ima buy some F!

Current allocation:

C Fund34.88%
S Fund2.41%
I Fund62.71%

IFT allocation:

F Fund 30%
I Fund 70%

New contributions still going to S.

 

[Rolo]

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<tap, tap>

Hello?

Is this thing on?

Can anybody hear me?

Does anybody read this frickin' thing?

heh...just wondering if I'm talking to myself here. That's OK, since writing my thoughts helps me to develop a clear strategy...probably becuase more of the brain (the parts that involve typing, reading, articulating, etc.) are comitted to this stock voodoo that we do.

Buyer's remorse. yup. Ima wonderin' if I shoulda left well enough alone. Not totally, but the seed of doubt is there. Is that bad? Depends how it is used, I suppose. Currently, it is keeping my mind open, and that is a good thing.

AGG/F Fund, 30%: I probably should have waited for that confirmation Hammer; instead I got a Spinning Top at a lower price. meh...I got F shares cheaper. I hope the sale ends very soon. I'm optimistic that it will not fall below the bottom Bollinger.

EFV/I Fund, 70%: Flat base? That'd be cool. I am wondering if I should have just put 100% into I...I may do that if it breaks 54.

C/S Fund: I will kick myself if it starts the second side of that 'V' I mentioned.

XAU: Holy cow will it ever stop climbing!? My metals funds have kept my down days near zero.

 

[Spaf]

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Hello! Hello!

This is Rolo's Account Babble Page! Hello! Hello! <click> [Must not be on!]

 

[Rolo]

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Oh! sorry...forgot it was one of those Push-To-Talk thingies...

 

[vectorman]

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That F fund move doesn't look too bad after the last two days.:^

 

[Rolo]

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ehehehe...Due to my uncertainty, I've been sayin' IRL, since I bought the darn thing, "I'm either brilliant, or a bonehead with this F fund move...only time will tell!"

Yesterday (the big up-day) had me visualising one of those chew-toys for dogs.

I'm not out of the woods yet, but I think today did tell a lot. What, exactly, I am not certain, but I'm sure it was a lot.


[line]


C Fund: When I checked BigCharts this morning, SP500 was up. I expected it to be down. "Oh..MAAAAAN what was I thinking selling C? How am I gonna buy back with little egg as possible?" I got home, checked, negative .79%...."whoo-hoOOoo!" heh

[align=center]

Crows signal more down days[/align]
I am expecting two more days like today, not necessarily in a row. I am expecting ~1221 soon and then, I dunno...maybe lower, maybe a turnaround, we'll see how the pattern develops. Unfortunately, we didn't get the breakout I had hoped so the market's in a refractory period for a short while at least...we'll see if Q3 results arouses it again.

F Fund: Yesterdays spinning top looked promising (still does, but todays long lower shadow kinda sucks). I say 'kinda' because the high volume with a small trading range would be mere churning, which is not so good. Since AGG's lower range is so low and the body is so small and toward the top, I think it was a promising day, upward pressure.

[align=center]

Hammer, bullish, reversal[/align]
We got the bottom Bollinger band like I predicted, and hopefully a bounce upward. I hope tomorrow opens higher.

I Fund: Not much to say...flat base I suppose.

This:

or this:

Unfortunately, the former looks more likely over the latter. Perhaps more horizontal movement.

S Fund: blech.

I'll look for an opportunity to trade some F for I very soon.

 

[Rolo]

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This morning...

C & S Fund: BLAM-O! (ehehe...I love those '50's words) right down the 50-day MA. Now peel the egg off your face and eatchyer crow. hehe...I can't talk...I was holding the bag the last time this happened, "Aw hell...do I sell now or are we too close to the bottom?" I hate trying to figure that out. I usually default to holding since mid-to-long term I am bullish.

F Fund: Whoo-hoo! The bonehead sentiment has dropped! Some white days would be nice. Piercing the 50-day MA would be nicer. I wonder if AGG & SP500 generally cross their 50-days about the same time normally...hrrmmmmMMMmmm....

I Fund: Do I see a flag forming? Three-up? (see above candlestick pattern) I hope so! (Again, more white days would be nice) So far its taunting me...

 

[Show-me]

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Steady big boy! By the way I really enjoy your analyst of candlesticks. Charts for C and S are not looking good. RSI, Slow STO, CCI, Wm%, and ROC are all heading south. Weaker dollar “should” take some of the sting out of the crappy European markets. Go F fund!

 

[vectorman]

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Rolo, if the S and C continue down, I look for the I to soon follow. But your long anyway and should finish with a good year.

 

[pyriel]

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Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma to have youdrop your drawers so she can spank you...

 

[Rolo]

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So in how many accounts do I have to post for grandma to call in reinforcements?

 

[grandma]

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Pyriel wrote:Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma ....
Rolo wrote: So in how many accounts do I have to post for grandma to call in reinforcements?

???? What did I miss here?

I think I must have gotten swallowed up trying to digest all of Tekno's information today - Anything to take my mind off the I fund today - !!! Unreal - !

 

[Rolo]

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ehehehee...blink and you can miss somethin' around here.

C/S Fund: aww...I didn't get my third black day, but I won't rule it out for today or Monday. I'm also not ruling out that the test of the lows isn't over (e.g. things be bullish henceforth). The plan, atm, is to wait for it to break 1245 before getting back in.

F Fund, 30%: Holy crap more churning than a Quaker mamma! Very high volume, zero price movement, bulls/bears deadlocked. Ima little bullish on this one, holding.

I Fund: I don't like that saggy windsock pattern (no, that's not an 'official' name, but it looks just like that, no?). Holding...bullish that it'll move past the flat base.

I doubt I'll make any changes until I see Monday's action, but I'll keep reading over the weekend.

 

[Rolo]

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C Fund: Hmm...wonder if today will go back down. No matter...I'll speculate wildly here: I will look for resistance and a reversalat 1227. Hopefully, the down-days will be few, then reverse again, creating a big pennant (look at SP500 on BigCharts, 1-year to see what I mean).

F Fund: Aww...heh. Perhaps the universe is normal now in that when stocks do well, bonds should do poorly, and vice-versa. Still holding.

I Fund: I think the pattern looks good...long flag thing goin' on. I should probably go 100% I...but WHEN? heh.

 

[grandma]

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Rolo wrote:

ehehehee...blink and you can miss somethin' around here.

AND in Mlk's Funland wrote:
....Hey mlk...I just looked at your account #3 (but didn't post in it...so put down the cat-o-nine tails, grandma) and I have to ask, mlk, "Whatdahellyoo dooin'?" heh...all over the place and such

.I was too scared to reply in mlk's land !!!

Rolo, I have to ask - whtshel you talkn' bout???

Have I typed myself into a jam... ?????

 

[Rolo]

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grandma wrote:

Rolo, I have to ask - whtshel you talkn' bout???

Have I typed myself into a jam... ?????

Pyriel started it! :u

pyriel wrote:

Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma to have youdrop your drawers so she can spank you...

heh heh


/me slooowly slinks toward the door...

 

[Rolo]

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Guuuuhhhhh...back from a weekend of spankin'. Ever see that PowerPoint slide of Mickey Mouse singing "Monday Sucks!"? Yeah...

C Fund: wOw...more spinning tops than Romper Room! I don't like the pattern. I can't really quantify that, either, other than I think tomorrow and the rest of the week will be down. Am I bearish? no. Am I bullish? hrmm..long term, of course. I am waiting to see. If I had C Fund shares, I wouldn't be quick to sell them...particularly since I regret selling the 36% C that I had....which leads me to:

F Fund: I didn't expect that lower gap...whassup widdat? Did I not say, last week or two, "Why would anybody by this [F Fund]?" Well, I bought it.Being one of the buyers brings me no closer to the answer to that question. I hate to say this, but I wonder how many trades are done simply 'cos "the grass looks greener". I got out of C to mitigate risk. In my self-defeating sense, I bought F assuming the very same risks I avoided in C! WTF? That makes no sense. I will unload it for...

I Fund: Rising dollar a threat? I dunno...in the big picture of the buck's value, where is it now? Is it particularly low? If so, that could be a problem. Is it smack in the middle? If it's near high's then it shouldn't be a problem. In any case, I'm looking for the better point to go 100% I (F :}a little, I :{a little, and C/S look bad).

XAU: The lifeblood of my portfolio. Methinks I need to find a new lifeblood within six months...maybe before January. I missed energy this whole past year and I'm a bit peeved at myself for that and do not want to be clueless when the gold mine collapses.
The pattern isn't as tight as it has been...could be the beginning of some instability. (Instability in the market? NOOOOooooo!)

So our next assignment: upcoming sectors...thoughts, anyone?

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo,

Hey, CK out [ILF] and [EWZ]! Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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Don't forget EWW also.