Rolo's Account Talk

[Rolo]

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Our regularly scheduled programming will return shortly....



My lack o' posting isn't just a lack o' posting...it's a lack o' pretty much everything...I haven't been scrutinising the market in months...just let everything ride and regularly checked for a pulse.

How funny. Last night I decided that I would post tonight, "I think the market will bust out of its 1-week trading range in a heavy move either up or down tomorrow". I was one day off. If I didn't procrastinate, I would have looked really "WhooOOoooOOOoooooo!"

heh

Which reminds me....I never finished my book-for-procrastinators, Eat That Frog! Maybe this winter....

Will Thurs & Fri be mega-up days like today, making three long white sticks and sideliners go "D'oh!"? .. or .. will the week end in a pullback right where we started..?

We'll see. I'm bullish, thinking that breaking the prior high will happen by a few weeks.

I wonder if we'll have a f***** up January Effect this year like we did last year--as in, not only are you not getting your January Effect, but the market's gonna plotz as well! That was not fun..very disappointing.

 

[mlk_man]

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Rolo Member

Joined:
Mon Mar 22nd, 2004Location:Colorado USA

Posts:1254Posted: Wed Aug 31st, 2005 11:20 pm

Quote


Replyhttp://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1038.html

hehehehe...HEY Milk! Glad to see ya...and that we're not in straight-jackets..bwahaha







Didn't you see my avatar? I'm in a body-suit straight jacket, they determined that I have other "dangerous weapons" besides just my hands. I'm jumping around trying to get out.................

M_M

 

[nnuut]

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Rolo, nice to see ya back. Makin' big money, good. See, you quit posting and I lost my butt. Not nice!

Norman

 

[lovegardening]

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Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too.

 

[lovegardening]

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Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too. (I read the posts daily, just hardly ever comment, not that educated in finances)

 

[Show-me]

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Rolo,

Glad to see your alive! They told me you were dead!:l

 

[Rolo]

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Show-me wrote:

Rolo,

Glad to see your alive! They told me you were dead!:l

I'm not dead yet!

lovegardening wrote:

Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too.

expertise? bahahaha...when'd I get that?

Mike's MIA? bummer



Mlk, you have a big head and no neck. neat!

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Nice jump for the I fund these two days, eh? Should I cash out for something else, or let it ride? hmm.. I gotta catch up on the board here. Then, at least, I will have all these facts and opinions to justify my indecision.

 

[NghtRn]

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I just want to thank all of you regular members who post and share your expertise. I have up to now sat by, monitored all of your information and definitely have benifited from it. :^ If it wasn't for tsptalk, I would probably be sitting in G-Fundland forever and my retirement account wouldn't be where it is now. I definitely have more money in it, than what I invested. Thanks! I am wondering, though, right now I am 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, what I should do for Tuesday. I might play it safe and catch that penny on the G fund? Either way, this is a great place to learn, hopefully make more than loose web site.

 

[mlk_man]

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NghtRn wrote:

I just want to thank all of you regular members who post and share your expertise. I have up to now sat by, monitored all of your information and definitely have benifited from it. :^ If it wasn't for tsptalk, I would probably be sitting in G-Fundland forever and my retirement account wouldn't be where it is now. I definitely have more money in it, than what I invested. Thanks! I am wondering, though, right now I am 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, what I should do for Tuesday. I might play it safe and catch that penny on the G fund? Either way, this is a great place to learn, hopefully make more than loose web site.

Welcome NghtRn, I take you are a nurse? Is this your license plate logo?

Me personally, I'm going to wait till the last minute to make a decision. If the funds are up a healthy percentage, I'll go to the G fund because we "should" get the penny on Tues. If we are down, I'll probably stick with my 100% S fund.

Last year the week before labor started down on Mon. then went up until Fri., when it lost it a little,and then was up again Tues. Due to the volatility of this time of year and the fact the S fund has been up two straight days, I mainly track the S fund, I'd expect either today or Tues. to be down. Just have to pick which one..........:*If I had to pick one, right now I'd say today would probably be down at fairly flat. Although I'm hoping it's up since I'm in.

Of course trend wise, all moving averages are now up except the 20-day, I track 11 different moving averages. So if one doesn't want to guess what would happen, I'd say just stay in and let the MA's dictate what to do. Of course getting the "sure" penny is quite tempting especially after this lastest run up these past few days. I believe the F fund will fall back a bit at this point.

Does that straighten things out for ya? :h

Sorry for posting in your thread Rolo.

Good luck,

M_M

 

[Rolo]

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mlk_man wrote:

Sorry for posting in your thread Rolo.

Not at all! This is the babble thread...what it is for...a forum doesn't do much good without babbling.

I, too, am deciding what to do.


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S Fund/DWCP: At the top Bollinger band, but looks like it's gonna pop wide open, but which way will the price action move? The three-day candlestick doesn't look good at all. I think Tues will be a black day, falling to a support level at 525.37 and then turn around. It may hit its 50-day MA first. So no S fund for me right now, but I'm contributing to it and looking for a buy point.

C Fund/SP500: Smack in the middle of the Bollinger bands. The spinning tops (equal upper and lower shadows with a little body) shows total indecision. The bulls & bears are slugging it out in a stalemate. I am holding my 36% C at least. Next week should show who will come out on top. It's just a tad above 50-day, so I am bullish on C.

I Fund/EFA: We broke the prior high! So I take my profit or let it ride? Hmmm. If you eliminate the dollar-drop, we really didn't break the prior high. It's well above 50-day and the trend is slowing. This tells me "pullback soon" and to take my profit OR, it shows strength and that the I Fund is the place to be.I HATE getting whipsawed, so I think I will keep my 63% I.

F Fund/AGG: Yup...falling from its upper Bollinger. I don't like F anyway.

G Fund: Take the Tues penny? Perhaps, but what will it cost me? I don't want to give up a two-cent gain in another fund to get a one-cent gain in the G and THEN have to buy back what I had and not only lose my one-cent, but however many cents higher the C or I gained. Too much risk for too little gain.

So, no IFT for me today. See ya Tues.

 

[nnuut]

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Klaatu is not alive! :l

 

[Rolo]

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ROFL! Maybe we can program Gort to come up with a trading system. It surely beats destroying the planet.

 

[Rolo]

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C Fund :}1.29% nice! I think there is a good chance of passing 1240 by Friday (one or two day stagnation, then another jump). This is the reason I kept my C. Chart looks good; I think it has strength.

S Fund :}1.21% almost as nice a C. Same for chart pattern...looks pretty strong. Will the Bollinger bands pop wide open?

I Fund :}0.66% WTF? The Index (EFV) is :}1.13%. Where's the other half?

F Fund (not trackin it really) The chart pattern looks tempting (nice black hammer), the the DMI and MACD and location in the Bollinger bands don't look to well. Not worth the risk...why take so much risk for so little reward?

G Fund = cash Ima start callin' it the GOTCHA! Fund.

 

[Rolo]

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Okay...still didn't get that other half of those I Fund gains...musta been used to pay the fees to run those L funds.

Well, today happened exactly as I expected (okay, 75% allocated to 'expected' and 25% to 'hoped'). Tomorrow, I am thinking more of the same--small body, spinning top or lower shadow only--or a jump up.

A little more pullback would make me more warm and fuzzy. What are my sell rules? err...I need to think about that, but I think I'll need another week on that. "We'll see".

If I were on the sidelines now, I would seriously think about buying in. The only reason not to is if you think the market will be dismal for a long time. MT is the only one I know like that, hehe.

 

[Rolo]

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Awesome...I feel more warm and fuzzy.

C Fund 34.81%: Low tomorrow of 1228 (1223 possible but unlikely) and a high of 1243. That would move me from 'warm and fuzzy' to 'Herbal Essence commercial'.

High pressure front on the upper Bollinger Band. Two or sodays of calm, steady weather should let the pressure dissipate.

S Fund 2.41%: Pretty much the same as C. I don't think it will grow quite as quickly as C.

I Fund 62.78%: The currency jumps in the chart make me feel like I have to focus like on those "Magic Eye" posters. More upside price action is called for soon. Growth seems to be slowing.

F Fund: WHYYYY would anyone buy this?

 

[Rolo]

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Good morning!

C&S: So far, so good! (...so what! heh) Nothing but upside price action, no lower shadow yet. Will the upward momentum continue today? I hope so.

Something I just saw by looking at DWCP's tiny white body this morning: a wedge. Wedges (candlestick and chips) are usually good, setting the stage for a breakout (and sometimes a breakdown). That big move may not happen until Monday. I do not like that scenario as much as I would like it to happen today. From what I can tell, a week closing higher is indicative of a bullish trend and a week closing lower represents a bearish trend. Is it absolute? No, gravity and G-d are only absolute.

I think we are at a critical point (this week and next week) to where the weeks need to continue to close higher. If the rally does not happen until Monday, then I believe next Friday has a greater chance of closing lower. Yes, it is possible that Monday rallies and Friday will still close higher (that would be great, and the beginning of an awesome run-up). My main point here is not to have an itchy trigger-finger.

I Fund is still lookin' good, albeit quiet.

 

[coolhand]

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I'm glad youdiscuss candlesticks and such. I've been studying them. I expect to start using those indicatorsto some extent before much longer. That and some other indicators that Spaf uses.

You know anything about ew?

 

[Rolo]

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EW? Electronic Warfare? heh

 

[coolhand]

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lol...close. Elliot wave.

 

[Rolo]

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coolhand wrote:

lol...close. Elliot wave.

I've seen the term but have no idea what it is. What is it?

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Next week...gonna be exciting in any case.

Rolo wrote:

C Fund 34.81%: Low tomorrow of 1228 (1223 possible but unlikely) and a high of 1243. That would move me from 'warm and fuzzy' to 'Herbal Essence commercial'.

Ohhh! Ohhhh! heh. SP500, C Fund: 8-ball says to upside action next week, "Don't hold your breath". Bah! First, I think the upshot will continue and will top the prior high. 2. If not, a perfectly flat base would be nice, and C. a sharp drop ( > 1217 ) will not scare me off on the assumption that a nice bounce to make a 'V' to complete the wedge, then a breakout past the prior high the week after next. A real reversal would surprise me.

Rolo wrote:

I Fund 62.78%: ... More upside price action is called for soon. Growth seems to be slowing.

EFV, I Fund: The Magic 8-ball says that it will "Probably not" close higher next week. I disagree. We have a nice W with a handle and a breakout above the prior high. A little more volume would make that picture-perfect (the volume is not lacking, just not orgasmic). I am expecting a continuation and a good pace, not too slow, not a climax.

Rolo wrote:

S Fund 2.41%: Pretty much the same as C. I don't think it will grow quite as quickly as C.

S Fund, DWCP: Seems to be slowing...will it beat the prior high? I think so, but it appears that it will not outpace the C Fund. Magic 8 says "It is not clear".

Rolo wrote:

F Fund: WHYYYY would anyone buy this?

eheheh...sheesh. It's still not lookin' good and it'll be that way for a while, I think. The 8-ball thinks it isn't crap. I think it's just disagreeing just to disagree.