Rolo's Account Talk

[Rolo]

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C Fund: Wow...3 consecutive spinning tops. Next stop, 1250 or 1180? I better see some > 50-day action before I bet on 1250.

I Fund: SSDD. I probably shouldn't wait for a better buy point.

F Fund: It's lookin' ooglay. Engulfing pattern--fooglay. Time to undo a mistake by not continuing it. F is gone.

I'm going 100% I now.

 

[Rolo]

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When will I learn the cost of procrastination? Never...been 34 years...not gonna stop now! (realist...defeatist...you decide...I'll do it later...heh)

I Fund, 100%: Neat! A day late on my 100% I IFT so I got to pay a premium. That's OK, I am actually more confident in my IFT since I Fund showed some nice upward action today. (as if the shi**y F Fundtransacton wasn't enough to make me comfortable to get out of it hehe)

Lesson: If you make a mistake (or if you didn't make a mistake, but things just didn't work out as planned), then correct it. Don't cling to it, hoping to 'break even'. I did that for a day or threeand missed some nice I Fund gains. Over 1% on 30% of my account. My share-price YTD gain is only 5.91%, so .34% this week is not exactly miniscule (attached).


Hey Py, am I ever gonna be on your spreadsheet? I'd feel like the red-headed black sheep if mlk werent' around. (c'mon milkie! If we can't laugh at ourselves....then laugh at somebody else!)


Anyway, back to returns...I am not beating the S or I fund returns. It's enough to make me think of going 50/50 S/I and be done with it. Then there's tekno...who is successfully doing what I am hoping to accomplish. Can I gain his perspective, his strategy without reading gobs of lengthy articles? heh...Ima try. The wierd allocations makes me think of "high-speed dollar-cost-averaging".


C Fund: I keep thinking 1180 for the S&P. Today's Hanging Man isn't good. I don't think the way cool pennant wedge is gonna happen. I am bearish, short-term.

S Fund: Same thing...not as 'solid' in my mind as the C, but I would say 505 on DWCP is a good buy point, the next low. I wouldn't rule out 490.

F Fund: Makes no sense whatsoever. Peter Lynch stayed away from things that made no sense, so Ima do dat. I'll buy this when we have a killer bond rally and not a moment sooner. Somebody remind me of that if I ever entertain such a silly notion of buying F again...please.

X Fund: Yeah, that would be cool...and it would track XAU...gold and silver index. Okay, everybody write a letter to the TSP board peeps asking for an X Fund. Tomorrow will make a two-week flat base for it. Now is a good time to buy/add to your position.

 

[Rolo]

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Rolo wrote:

C Fund: blah-bla-blah. I am bearish, short-term.

Bahahaha! I am mocked by the market a day later! That's OK..we'll see where this big white candlestick goes. In the meantime, I should prolly read the candlestick book I bought months ago. I am back to "undecided"

I Fund: Whoo-hoo! Even though I griped about buying at a higher share price, it did give me confidence in my purchase in that it showed strength. Today, and in the near future I believe, it paid off. C & S rallied well, but I Fund was the biggest gainer today.

Common mentality is to avoid "buying high" in those instances, but that assumes that now is the high. "High" is relative to the future, not the past. Bill O'Neil's book set me straight on that and I have to keep it in mind always.

Unless you are strictly dollar-cost-averaging, buy strength, not weakness! This is a key way to mitigate risk.

A brief look at tekno's trades makes me think he understands this and waits for a confirmation rally before adding to his position.

I intend to stay 100% I unless something goes terribly wrong.

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo,

Take a gander at www.barchart.com[EWZ], [ILF], and [EEM]. Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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Brazilian market...makes ME wanna do the mambo!

EEM...an emerging market index! I didn't know that existed. Cool. I thought emerging markets were taking off...August 10th I bought Gartmore Emerging Markets III (no ticker) in my wife's 401k; it's been gaining like my XAU funds.

You all think that is one of THE sectors to be in for a while? My SEP IRA (SDVIX and SMMVX)is in dire need of some switching as soon as quarterly distributions are made. I thought I bought a good energy fund, but apparently not.

I'll be spending some time on Morningstar and Kiplinger's this weekend.

 

[Rolo]

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F Fund: Holy cow....bottom fell outta that one!

C Fund: Pennant's a possibility still.

S Fund: WTF? I'm really thinking you can never go wrong with S.

I Fund: There's yer dip, better buy now if yer gunna.

XAU: Should resume uptrend soon. I bought USERX just now (similar to UNWPX) to replace that Wells Fargo junk I had.

EEM: Nice volume today! I'm keeping an eye out for funds of this type (Emerging Markets) in case gold loses its lustre. What are some EEM funds you guys like?

I wanted to buy a Latin America fund, but all I found were loaded/unavailable to USAA. Anyone holding any of these funds?

 

[Spaf]

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Yep

ILF and EWZ look like the tech stocks before the bust. They seem to be going up way too fast. Both funds have identical track records when run on the performance charts.

I don't recommend buying into them. They are going up to fast and furious. At the slighest pause I'm selling.

In the meantime I'll enjoy the ride.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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C Fund: When I took a quick look at the SP500 chart this morning, I thought what happened today would happen tomorrow. I was gonna predict a long black day but oh well...heh. What is cool, though, is that I appear to be getting this. The pennant pattern is still possible, but gets shakier by the day. I would definitely wait until it broke out of this pattern and not gamble.

IFund: WTF? EFA and EFV were both down but the I Fund is up. That happens a lot and it is a good reason not to try to get cute with the I Fund.

G Fund: My new contribs go to this and I'll just move 'em when something breaks out of its trading rage (most likely I Fund). In the meantime, I'll take a few sure-shot pennies.

I'm amazed that every index/market is down today....everything! It's like a global digesting/pullback/correction/profit-taking.

 

[mlk_man]

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Wait a minute, the VIX was up!!!

 

[Rolo]

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mlk_man wrote:

Wait a minute, the VIX was up!!!

hahaha LOL

 

[Rolo]

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C Fund: Next SP500 stop:1178. At 200-day MA now and I really don't expect an increase untilit hits 1178first and maybe even 1140, but, of course, it could bounce tomorrow. If it doesn't bounce off MA200 starting tomorrow, then I would be totally bearish. Look at a 1-year chart to see what I mean.

S Fund: 510 or 488 or 200-day MA bounce.

F Fund: crapcrapcrapwhocares

I Fund: haha...so much for seeking refuge outside the country! Actually, I'm optimistic enough to not punch. I don't expect EFA to drop below 56, or a 50-day MA bounce. This is still the place to be...it doesn't look like it's stalling like SP500 is and there's that beautiful cup-and-handle we just broke out of...

EEM: Looks strong, no worries, just a speedbump.

XAU: Ow. Quit it. I didn't expect that...but everything is friggin' falling...well, 'cept mlk_man's blood pressure. It's over-extended. :shock:

 

[Rolo]

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C/S Fund: Yeah...nuttin' but big drops ahead, I think. Bearish.

F Fund: Bottom? Dunno...dun't care. Yakkish.

I Fund: Should be at support level. Bullish.

XAU: Better break 115 soon. Bullish.

EEM: WEE! Look at it go! Bullish. Wish I could find more EEM funds.

DELL: You missed the optimumbuy point. Yakkish.

RHAT: Institutions are gettin' in its pants! Bullish.

 

[Rolo]

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Looking at my crystal ball here...If SP500 doesn't reverse now @ ~1180, then it will arc back down to 1140-1150, then should run-up pretty fast.

Look at the 1-year view. Look at the three small humps after last year's run-upfollowed by the two larger humps, which we are at the end of now. Who posted this pattern like six months ago? Theywere right.

 

[Rolo]

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Here's a thought: If you can't keep emotion out of, say, posts about your trading, then you probably cannot keep emotion out of your trading either!

I Fund: EFA closed at its 50-day ~56-1/3, which doesn't surprise me. This could be the support level and it could bounce right off of it. I would like that very much.

However, a drop to ~55-1/2 is very possible. Look at the 6-month view and draw a trendline from May's low to mid-June's low, to mid-July's pullback to see what I mean.

No matter how tempted I may be, I am not going to get cute and try to avoid little dips; the intermediate term trend still looks good to me and I will stick with it. Besides, I have 2.3% in G from new contributions to move in near the low; I can play with that.

S Fund: haha wooOOooow..sucks to be you! It hit it's 200-day MA. Ima say DWCP is gonna head to 490. Deja vu...Did I say that before?.... Sep 28th I said that. I either have a point or I'm just chasing my tail, in circles. No S for me. Even for DCA'ers, I would wait until it stops hurtling itself downward before I bought it.

C Fund: I still think 1140-1150, ~400-day MA. Who posted that chart I mentioned!? Oh, wait, mlk ran them off so now we'll never know. :?

F Fund: AGG below 101 support level. I dunno how much it'll drop...just a little I think (100.25) but then you have dividends being paid into the F Fund, so Ima not waste my time.

XAU: I see a wedge forming...at least I hope it is forming (that's a good thing). Still above 50-day, good.

EEM: Ow. Hopefully a quick W forming.

 

[tsptalk]

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Rolo -
The I fund was actually down for the year on July 1st. It wasn't until the dollar pulled back this summer that it went into high gear. Now that the dollar seems to be rallying again. Willthis affect how you approach the I fund?

I can't seem to get a good handle on that dang fund. I have a difficult time putting money in it when the dollar looks bullish.

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

Now that the dollar seems to be rallying again. Willthis affect how you approach the I fund?

I'm glad you asked that since that is a question I need to answer, like, now. (Yes, I don't have an exit strategy really, hehe tsk tsk)

So here goes...

tsptalk wrote:

It wasn't until the dollar pulled back this summer that it went into high gear.

I Fund took off in July...check.

Jan-July, the dollar rose...check.
July-Sep, the dollar fell...check.
Sep-now, the dollar bounced.

That correlation doesn't seem to stickprior to this year, which helps in my post hoc ergo propter hoc theory (correlation is not causation). Currency rates play a part, but I am not sure how much.

In the bigger picture, are there similar forces that, both,drive the dollar down and drive the I Fund up? For example, if the US economy were poor (relative to the EAFE economies), that could drive the dollar down and drive EAFE markets up; the dollar's value and the EAFE Indexes value areeffects of one cause rather thanone causing the effect of the other.


Here's a daily chart of the USD Index:

 

[Rolo]

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It looks like it's not going to break its prior high...that is what I have been watching. I think a safe assumption may be that it will stay in the channel I drew there for a while. That may be consistent with all this talk of "stagflation" and such.

Here's a monthly USD Index chart. It's very reassuring since it shows how low, relatively speaking, it is. It also shows the bubble and this is where, if you compare this to EFA as far as you can go, there doesn't appear to be hardly any correlation, which has me a mite confused on the whole thing.

 

[Rolo]

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We also see big resistance waiting at 94-95. So, I am bearish on the buck and independently bullish on international investments as a whole. It's not just my I Fund, too, 1/2 of my portfolio is overseas!


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I Fund: Bounced just below 50-day MA. I'll feel much better when EFA blows through 56.75. I do believe it will resume its uptrend...especially after a 50-day MA digesting.

C Fund: Aw hell...I wanted to post that domestics will rally today, but I fell asleep in front ofthe fireplace much too early. I don't know if it'll stick. If I had to bet, my chips are still on 1140-1150.

S Fund: Will large caps take the lead from small/mid? Doubtful. I think the whole premise is self-contradictory. I think there's less risk with S over C. I'm still thinking 480-490 for DWCP though.

F Fund: Looks like it'll reverse Monday. It still sucks, though.

 

[tsptalk]

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Rolo wrote:

Here's a monthly USD Index chart. It's very reassuring since it shows how low, relatively speaking, it is. It also shows the bubble and this is where, if you compare this to EFA as far as you can go, there doesn't appear to be hardly any correlation, which has me a mite confused on the whole thing.

I'd like to compare the EFA (which is in dollars)to the EAFE in foreign currencies during that period. That's where we'd see the effect of the dollar.

As we know, the EAFE can go up while the dollar is rising but it hurts the return of the I fund and EFA (my running in peanut butter analogy).

I've just been very surprised over the past couple of years, to learnthe extent to which the dollar affects the I fund. The EAFE is up 14.9% this year in local currencies. In dollars it's only up 3.8%. That's crazy. It tells us that we pretty much have to pay more attention to the dollar than to foreign exchanges themselves.

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

(my running in peanut butter analogy).

ehehehe..that's a good analogy! I don't disagree...I just don't know how much to agree.

Also, taking the I Fund into context, even with the dollar's adversity, it's been the best bet out of all of our choices for about two years now.

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XAU: will probably reverse Monday...disappointed that it didn't reverse with everything else on Friday. I won't be surprised if it falls to ~102 before breaking 115.

EEM: I'm not adding to this. Has it begun a cup-and-handle base? (wait to see what the low is before buying)

SIRI: Looks like it may reverse trend Monday. I really need to re-establish my position there.