Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Reportedly, there were no Americans killed during the missile attacks. Good news. But, I think that President Trump's decision not to address the nation tonight will create/fuel a level of uncertainly leading into tomorrow's opening bell. Therefore, the futures may remain deeply in the red.

EDIT: Looks like President Trump's latest tweet may have helped the futures some. As of now, they are down:

DOW: 76.00

S&P: 7.00

NAS: 25.50

 

[nnuut]

The Markets have been Trumped.

 

[Rod]

The Markets have been Trumped.

Yes, indeed! It will eventually come to a halt, though... and not even he will be able to stop the bleeding. But, how much further will it rise until then? That's the million-dollar question that no one can answer. But, I'd rather miss out on that rise than to get caught up in the free-fall once that finally commences. I'll only come out ahead if we fall further than we've risen since I IFT'd to (G). I'm awaiting at least a 5% decline. But, how long will I be waiting? Hopefully not too much longer.

 

[Mcqlives]

That is exactly what I was thinking last summer. I went in and out on short term trades (ended up about 2%total during that time) before giving up trying to time it and going all in for December. I missed most of the December 2018 drop and was in for most of the first art of 19 so had a good year (would have done about 10% better just riding c or s) but all the old timing tricks don’t work. Even the ones people proved during qe don’t match up to the current liquidity pumping the fed does. I think I’m in till something scares me or we get the reversal. For now I think making a 5% profit is as likely as a 5% drop near term. Good luck timing this in any way!

 

[Rod]

That is exactly what I was thinking last summer. I went in and out on short term trades (ended up about 2%total during that time) before giving up trying to time it and going all in for December. I missed most of the December 2018 drop and was in for most of the first art of 19 so had a good year (would have done about 10% better just riding c or s) but all the old timing tricks don’t work. Even the ones people proved during qe don’t match up to the current liquidity pumping the fed does. I think I’m in till something scares me or we get the reversal. For now I think making a 5% profit is as likely as a 5% drop near term. Good luck timing this in any way!

Yeah... I'm hoping for a repeat of 2008. Sensing a disturbance in "the force", I ducked for cover on 23 Jan 2008. Although I waited in (G) for about 8 months prior to the crash, I did not lose one red cent during the crash. Furthermore, I sacrificed only about a 22 point upswing in the S&P between the months of Jan 2008 and May 2008- when the S&P took a nosedive. I then IFT'd to 60 (C) and 40 (S) on 9 Nov 2009. I had been holding that until I IFT'd back into (G) on 23 Dec after once again, "sensing a disturbance in the force." BTW, my buy-n-hold return for that period was 281%... averaging 28% annually.

 

[Mcqlives]

Nice! Hope you are right. Not that I’m looking forward to a Nosedive....just getting tired of waiting for it when I believe it will happen at some point.

 

[Rod]

Nice! Hope you are right. Not that I’m looking forward to a Nosedive....just getting tired of waiting for it when I believe it will happen at some point.

I hope I'm right too. We never truly know what's going to happen. And sometimes it's best to become your own contrarian... going against yourself. LORD willing, this isn't one of those times when I should've gone against myself. Then again, it was my first IFT in over 10 years! I think I was entitled to one... no matter what happens! :ban:

 

[Rod]

I am ready for this pullback/correction to commence! I've missed out on about 3.76% of gains (Had I maintained my allocation) since I IFT'd to (G) on 23 Dec. I'm usually a bit early exiting the markets when I sense I need to. But, like I said on 23 Dec...

I may miss out on some more gains in this long-running Bull. But, I do fear it will soon come to an abrupt end. I missed the 2008 crash altogether. My plan is to miss the impending next one too, and then buy in low as I did in 2009.

Here's to the hopeful awakening of The Bears! :headbang:

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Keep it up Bears...

 

[Rod]

Perhaps now the pullback will officially commence. I just hate to see this type of catalyst- the Coronavirus. But, Mr. Market was overdue for a rest. At least a 5% rest. Because we don't know the ultimate impact the Coronavirus will have on the global economy, this is a tricky situation for those of you who are still in the market. Do you "panic" sell today? Do you just stick it out... because, in the market, what goes down must go up? How far down are you willing to ride it? Because a few days/weeks from now they could announce a vaccine, ushering in a huge rally. Personally, If I was still in, I would likely just ride this thing out... as I have done many times in the past. Now, I just have to wait for what I believe to be the ideal entry point... after at least a 5% consolidation.

God Bless :smile:

Edit: BTW, if you want to bet against this downtown, then stock up on some FAZ. Also, Clorox (CLX), Vir Biotechnology (VIR)- attempting to develop a vaccine for the Coronavirus. It is currently up 27%.

 

[nnuut]

I have my "G" pants on!

 

[Rod]

It wouldn't surprise me at all (but it sure would tick me off) if Mr. Market went green by COB. :banghead: It really needs a rest of at least 5% and I hope this is finally the beginning of it.

 

[Rod]

Alright, we are looking for at least a 5% pullback. According to my calculations, the major indices have fallen this much since Tuesday, 21 Jan (when the start of a pullback could have officially commenced):

DOW: -0.98

S&P: -1.02

NAS: -0.79

If my calculations are correct, we need to lose at least 4% more in the S&P before an official pullback.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

S&P down 2.59% since 21 Jan...

 

[Rod]

Be careful out there. This rebound doesn't make much sense given the many uncertainties of the coronavirus and its overall implications. Even Cramer doesn't support it. Furthermore, we weren't even in oversold territory. So, be careful because Mr. Market is still due for at least a 5% pullback in order to remain "healthy." As of yesterday's close, that would've been another decline in the S&P 500 of at least 2.5%. But, now it's going in the opposite direction. Not good for Mr. Market.

God Bless :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

Be careful out there. This rebound doesn't make much sense given the many uncertainties of the coronavirus and its overall implications. Even Cramer doesn't support it. Furthermore, we weren't even in oversold territory. So, be careful because Mr. Market is still due for at least a 5% pullback in order to remain "healthy." As of yesterday's close, that would've been another decline in the S&P 500 of at least 2.5%. But, now it's going in the opposite direction. Not good for Mr. Market.

God Bless :smile:

True. But good for us that hung in there the last couple of days. I wish my crystal ball wasn't broken. Can't tell what's going to happen with the coronavirus and impeachment looming. But I guess I will put on my heavy duty depends for men and slip into a nice pair of sticky pants.

 

[Rod]

True. But good for us that hung in there the last couple of days. I wish my crystal ball wasn't broken. Can't tell what's going to happen with the coronavirus and impeachment looming. But I guess I will put on my heavy duty depends for men and slip into a nice pair of sticky pants.

Yeah... I mean heck, as you know, I rode the roller coaster for 10 years straight... throughout all dips, pullbacks, flash crashes, and all. But, fearing the end of this long-running Bull, I finally jumped off... with an average annual return of 28% over those 10 years. So, it definitely can pay to simply "buy and hold." You should try it sometime!:nuts:

I have no concerns about the impeachment whatsoever because it's a farce. But, with both of those issues aside (coronavirus & impeachment), we are still overdue for at least a pullback. I was hoping this was it. It still could be it. I guess we'll see in due time. :smile:

 

[Rod]

There's a lot riding on the WHO emergency meeting this afternoon. I certainly can't foresee how far Mr. Market will tank if they declare a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)." But, if I wasn't already in (G), I'd be nervous and concerned. I hedged my TD account this morning in preparation. We'll just have to see what happens.

Does anyone know what time that meeting is? I can't seem to find the time... and it's already late afternoon/early evening in Switzerland. Maybe it already occurred? If so, I don't see any headlines.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Some intel on the WHO emergency meeting,

The World Health Organization (WHO) will decide later today in Geneva whether or not to label the novel coronavirus from Wuhan a global health emergency. It is unclear exactly when this announcement will be made, but their International Health Regulations Emergency Committee started their meeting at 1:30pm local time in Geneva.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/01/30/world-health-organization-to-decide-whether-wuhan-coronavirus-a-global-health-emergency/#5de4b91d1d59

 

[Rod]

CDC just announced the first case of human-to-human coronavirus transmission in the USA.

Edit: It is the spouse of the original Chicago patient who traveled from Wuhan, China.