Rod's Account Talk

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Disclaimer: If my math is wrong, blame my meds, and not me.:nuts:


At times, I'm rather simplistic in my technical analysis. While contemplating my move back into (G), I've been studying the summertime gains/losses in the Dow since 1998. The parameters I use for "summertime" are 1 Jun - 1 Sep. Here are the Dow's gains/losses for that time frame since 1998:

1998: -1,109.39, Loss of 12%

1999: -633.85, Loss of 6%

2000: +119.42, Gain of 1%

2001: -1,654.84, Loss of 16%

2002: -1,650.33, Loss of 18%

2003: +289.62, Gain of 3%

2004: +355.21, Gain of 3%

2005: +293.73, Gain of 3%

2006: +528.85, Gain of 5%

2007: +487.01, Gain of 4%

2008: -499.35, Loss of 4%

2009: +1,265.28, Gain of 15%

2010: +1,014.03, Gain of 10%

2011: -1,500.96, Loss of 12%

2012: +557.04, Gain of 4%

2013: +220.61, Gain of 1%

2014: +216.30, Gain of 1%

2015: -1,334.81, Loss of 8%

2016: +378.16, Gain of 2%


Overall, summertime losses have certainly overwhelmed summertime gains these past nearly 20 years:

Losses = 76%
Gains = 52%

Double-digit losses = 4
Double-digit gains = 2

But, we've had only 3 summertime losses since 2008, and a total of 4 summertime losses since 2002. We've had 11 summertime gains since 2002.

Might the Trump Rally continue into the summer? According to my Dow summertime history, it seems we are in for summertime gains, even if it ends up being a small percentage. Given that I have gained 114% in my TSP since 2008, I should be willing to take that risk and remain 60(C) 40(S). But, will I?

Contemplation continues...:scratchchin:

God bless:smile:

+><>
 
Just making a note to myself that I sensed this negative action about 13 days prior to it occurring (see 4 May post). At best, this is the beginning of a pull back, with a little over 1% loss so far. But who knows, we could bounce back tomorrow. Just don't panic out there. Hold your positions if you're in... and don't sell at a loss.

God Bless :smile:
 
Hi Rod. Thanks for listing & discussion on "Summertime" market history. I really like the 1 Peter verse you listed. God Bless you & all.

Rod said:
Just making a note to myself that I sensed this negative action about 13 days prior to it occurring (see 4 May post). At best, this is the beginning of a pull back, with a little over 1% loss so far. But who knows, we could bounce back tomorrow. Just don't panic out there. Hold your positions if you're in... and don't sell at a loss.

God Bless :smile:
Click to expand...
 
Just providing an update for the New Year.

Well, it has been another decent buy-n-hold year for me: 20.34%, according to my TSP tracker (the site's tracker shows 20.30%). Once again, I consider myself the "guinea pig" for a buy-n-hold strategy :ban: because I've been holding (as opposed to folding :cheesy:) since I bought in low after the the 2008/2009 correction: 60(C), 40(S). It has paid off quite nicely.
My total TSP returns since then: 130.42%

God Bless! :smile:

+><>
 
Happy New Year Rod.

Pretty much been a buy and holder myself.

Good numbers by the way.

I went back and looked and from 2009 to 2017 it looks like I did 98%

Can't beat a good Bull Market. Let's hope it stays this way for a little while longer.

Good luck in 2018.
 
I sat out that entire time. I would be half way to a second million if I had followed your lead...instead I'm well, no where close....

****I went back and looked and from 2009 to 2017 it looks like I did 98%*****
 
Happy New Year to you as well! You've also done quite well!:cool:

My best buy-n-hold year so far has been 2013 when my return was a whopping 35.03%. I just wish I was in a position where I could contribute to my TSP. If I was, then I would convert it to a Roth. That wasn't available when I retired from the USAF on 1 Sep 2011.
 
Rod said:
Happy New Year to you as well! You've also done quite well!:cool:

My best buy-n-hold year so far has been 2013 when my return was a whopping 35.03%. I just wish I was in a position where I could contribute to my TSP. If I was, then I would convert it to a Roth. That wasn't available when I retired from the USAF on 1 Sep 2011.
Click to expand...

I think 2013 was a good year for most of us. I had a return just over 37%. Wish I could repeat that a few more times. :laugh:

USAF 70-74 Minuteman Missiles. Spent most of my time at F.E. Warren in Cheyenne WY.
 
I've been in a buy-n-hold of 60 (C) and 40 (S) for... can you believe it... over 10 years! (2 Nov 2009) Since then, (without any further contributions because I am retired) my account has gained 281%. That averages out to be 28% per year. Not too shabby for a buy-n-hold strategy.

Because I do not trust what 2020 has in store for Mr. Market, now is the time to bank those profits into (G). Therefore, effective 24 Dec 2019, I will be 100 (G).

In doing so, I may miss out on some more gains in this long-running Bull. But, I do fear it will soon come to an abrupt end. I missed the 2008 crash altogether. My plan is to miss the impending next one too, and then buy in low as I did in 2009.

Have a blessed Christmas!:smile:

+><>
 
According to my own TSP Talk Returns Calculator, my return for 2019 is 29.96%. I am happy to have beaten the S&P 500 which ended the year @ 28.88%.:banana:

Have a safe and happy New Year! God Bless!:smile:

+><>
 
It's going to be an interesting day, tomorrow. As of now (as you all know), futures are bleak. This (Iran missile attacks) might be the catalyst for a pullback. But, is it the catalyst for the correction I've been anticipating? Awaiting/pending "damage assessments" will help to determine what our response/retaliation will be, which will steer Mr. Market in one direction or the other.
 
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